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Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

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Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And you are saying people should only be allowed to say whatever they decide to put money on knowing full well that if enough rich people prop stock up for long enough short attempt will fail even if the company is bullshit hype. No I'm saying that if you don't have anything new or informative to say, don't say it. I don't really talk about why AI is a bubble because I have nothing new to add that hasn't already be…

> No I'm saying that if you don't have anything new or informative to say, don't say it. I don't see anyone else saying that here yet though? Every day new people learn about that quote, its a good quote that helps many not lose money, its not bad to post it where its relevant. If you goad people to lose their money then they can defend with that quote, that is fine.

> I don't see anyone else saying that here yet though?

My original thought was:

> It's totally fine to say something like "I'm worried that the actual products that the AI boom are producing won't generate enough revenue to justify these levels of investment." But the silly doomshilling happening constantly makes no sense. Perhaps more saliently, if you treat the market as a source of economic information, the doomshilling seems to offer no new information at all.

I'm not sure what folks are thinking about money when they read what I say. I think there's some imputed values about gambling and money there (namely I read some values about gambling being bad and money being dangerous) that might be confusing from my point.

Money is just the tool to hold one accountable for what they say. Saying something like "oh it's obvious Oracle is in trouble, AI is a bubble it's going down" (not actually what GP said) is, to me, a post of sentiment without information. It's the kind of thing I do in group chats not online forums. I think it's important for folks who post a sentiment to either post why they believe that sentiment with some amount of detail or to have some consequence for failure for their sentiment. Or else the commons are polluted with irrelevant at best and incorrect at worst content.

Put another way, I think the open internet needs a much, much, much higher level of gatekeeping than it gets now. Putting money behind your beliefs is one way to do this. And since we're talking about publicly tradable financial instruments, it seems like a fairly obvious one.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No I'm saying that if you don't have anything new or informative to say, don't say it. I don't see anyone else saying that here yet though? Every day new people learn about that quote, its a good quote that helps many not lose money, its not bad to post it where its relevant. If you goad people to lose their money then they can defend with that quote, that is fine.

> I don't see anyone else saying that here yet though? My original thought was: > It's totally fine to say something like "I'm worried that the actual products that the AI boom are producing won't generate enough revenue to justify these levels of investment." But the silly doomshilling happening constantly makes no sense. Perhaps more saliently, if you treat the market as a source of economic information, the doomsh…

Money is not dangerous, it is necessary for life, that's the point

Some people have a lot of it and who has more can gang up and influence markets meaning anyone who tries to prove a point to you by shorting a legitimately overpriced stock will be holding a bag

So that's why forums exist and it is good to be able to say what you think and not get bullied into shutting up

if you want economic information then why are you in this forum, just go to the market and let people discuss things;) if you participate in that discussion then that's your choice

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can get a $20 OpenAI subscription for some serious usage. Google has no such thing for Gemini, it's subscriptions are brain-dead, expensive bundled with 2 TB of storage and other shit that I don't want.

Isn’t Gemini the same price for the same usage as OpenAI? I agree they bundle extra things in there, but you don’t have to use them. If you just used Gemini for $20 you’d be equally situated as OpenAI for $20 on the model front.

It's actually cheaper if you subscribe as family on Google One.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I so desperately want to make a snide comment about foreseeing the future but the reality is the CapX is so muddied that I’m afraid everyone is going to feel it.

Exactly, the really frightening thing is Altman taking OpenAI public to get it into the SP500 and it completely falls apart then. In that case, we all get to hold the bag.

> Altman taking OpenAI public to get it into the SP500

There are eligibility requirements to meet before a stock can even be considered for inclusion into the SP500, and it’s hard to see how OpenAI, if they ever get into the situation where they need a public bag holder, could pull off another restructuring and then seasoning before the whole world realizes what’s going on.

Be wary. Pay attention. But don’t lose any sleep over it.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe the entire purpose of OpenAI was to suck all the inflation the US government created on the last decade and burn it out in a huge bonfire at the end of its life. Sam Altman has been playing 6-D chess this entire time, and we thought he was just a fraudster.

In a universe where all AI investment goes to zero, wouldn’t you have the opposite effect? You can torch wealth but not the money supply, which ultimately _increases_ inflation, not decreases it. There is only a short term inflation decrease while we produce what people mistakingly think is wealth. That can evaporate, but the money supply won’t.

It's confusing, but bankruptcy destroys mainly money, and only has second order effects on wealth.

What makes it hard to understand is that the Oracle going bankrupt on their debit because OpenAI took all their money is what would destroy the money. AFAIK, OpenAI itself doesn't have a lot of debit to burn. It would burn money that is currently on the hands of Oracle's creditors.

And bankruptcy is a bit of an extreme example, but just people thinking Oracle is less credit-worthy would destroy some money already. Repeat that for every company that invested in OpenAI.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#177
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As he should be booed off the stages in any respectable society. Regardless of whether he is right or wrong about ai.

> I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it. This is _actually_ what a respectable society does.

Who are you to regulate my booing? Free speech for me, not for thee?

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

booing is also covered by free speech.

I might be misunderstanding what booing means then. My understanding is covering another person's voice with shouts in order to sabotage his speech. It might indeed be part of what some society might define free speech, but I'd consider it more of a coward form of violence. If with "booing" you mean "disrespect whatever good idea a person has because it also has very bad ideas", then I wonder who we will end up respe…

> I'd consider it more of a coward form of violence

If you think that the act of booing is a form of violence, then what do you think about _actual_ hate speech?

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#179
It's been 2 months. Certianly not a worthwhile time horizon to judge this investment over.

The apartment I bought 3.5 years ago is worth less than when I purchased. But buying an apartment if you plan to sell after 3.5 years is nuts. I'm confident it'll be worth more than I bough 7 or so years from now.

Also, 3.5 years ago, interest rates were significantly lower. I hadn't taken the opportunity to buy when I did, getting into the market would cost me much more and my eventual returns would be much lower.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#180

This slide from their investor preso is bonkers. $10B revenue today, but we promise we'll get to $166B in revenue in 5 years, by the simple expedient of growing 75% every year for five years! https://d9j0pm70mrv84f.archive.is/Qdf2n/baa236e2a4d94d45fe93...

Itanium sales projections vibes

>Itanium sales projections vibes

We should be so lucky as to compare 2025 to 1997, when Itanium and its projections were announced.

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