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Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

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Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#171

Post by epistasis »

vlovich123 wrote: post #158
epistasis wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was Lina Khan's big thing, and I'd argue that our current administration is largely a result of Silicon Valkey no longer being able to get exits in the form or mergers and IPOs. Perhaps a better approach to anti-monopoly and anti-trust is possible, but I'm not sure anybody knows what that is. Khan was very well regarded and I don't know anybody who's better at it. Another approach would be a wealth and income ta…

Sorry, how did she stand in the way of IPOs? She was against the larger players providing easy off-ramps to smaller players but I don’t recall anything about IPOs. Indeed, Figma’s IPO is precisely because she undid the pending Adobe / Figma merger if I recall correctly.

You're right, IPOs were not blocked by this. I wish I could still edit to add a correction!

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#172

Post by MangoToupe »

sbarre wrote: post #6

I'm so mad about this, I need DDR5 for a new mini-PC I bought and prices have literally gone up by 2.5x.. 128GB used to be 400$ in June, and now it's over $1,000 for the same 2x64GB set.. I have no idea if/when prices will come back down but it sucks.

Such is life. I suggest finding a less volatile hobby, like crocheting.

Actually, the textile market is pretty volatile in the US these days with Joan's out of business. Pick a poison, I guess? There's little room for stability in a privately-owned-world.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#173

Post by nine_k »

cesarb wrote: post #40
hypeatei wrote: post #18

Well, patience as a consumer might pay off in the next year or so when the music stops and hyperscalers are forced to dump their inventories. There still isn't a clear path to profitability for any of these AI products and the capital expenditure has been enormous.

> Well, patience as a consumer might pay off in the next year or so when the music stops and hyperscalers are forced to dump their inventories. Their inventories are not what consumers use. Consumer DDR5 motherboards normally take UDIMMs. Server DDR5 motherboards normally take RDIMMs. They're mechanically incompatible, and the voltages are different. And the memory for GPUs is normally soldered directly to the board…

I bet that friendly Chinese entrepreneurs will sell inexpensive E1.S to m.2 adapters, and maybe even PCIe riser cards for putting an OAM and a bunch of fans, and maybe even an HDMI output. Good hardware won't be wasted, given some demand.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#174

Post by chmod775 »

addaon wrote: post #160
ajb wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dram alternates between feast and famine; it's the nature of a business when the granularity of investment is so huge (you have a fab or you don't, and they cost billions -maybe trillions by now). So, it will swing back. Unfortunately it looks like maybe 3-5 years on average, from some analysis here: https://storagesearch.com/memory-boom-bust-cycles.html (That's just me eyeballing it, feel free to do the math)

Nothing costs trillions.

If you had a trillion dollars you might find some things are for sale that otherwise wouldn't be...

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#175

Post by Yokolos »

ajb wrote: post #109
sbarre wrote: post #6

I'm so mad about this, I need DDR5 for a new mini-PC I bought and prices have literally gone up by 2.5x.. 128GB used to be 400$ in June, and now it's over $1,000 for the same 2x64GB set.. I have no idea if/when prices will come back down but it sucks.

Dram alternates between feast and famine; it's the nature of a business when the granularity of investment is so huge (you have a fab or you don't, and they cost billions -maybe trillions by now). So, it will swing back. Unfortunately it looks like maybe 3-5 years on average, from some analysis here: https://storagesearch.com/memory-boom-bust-cycles.html (That's just me eyeballing it, feel free to do the math)

I wouldn't be so sure. I've seen analyses making the case that this new phase is unlike previous cycles and DRAM makers will be far less willing to invest significantly in new capacity, especially into consumer DRAM over more enterprise DRAM or HBM (and even there there's still a significant risk of the AI bubble popping). The shortage could last a decade. Right now DRAM makers are benefiting to an extreme degree since they can basically demand any price for what they're making now, reducing the incentive even more.

https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/storage/perfect-s...

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#176

Post by chmod775 »

jbverschoor wrote: post #169
ajb wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dram alternates between feast and famine; it's the nature of a business when the granularity of investment is so huge (you have a fab or you don't, and they cost billions -maybe trillions by now). So, it will swing back. Unfortunately it looks like maybe 3-5 years on average, from some analysis here: https://storagesearch.com/memory-boom-bust-cycles.html (That's just me eyeballing it, feel free to do the math)

A waiver is a waiver. The cost is per square mm. It’s pure supply and demand

No, a wafer is very much not a wafer. DRAM processes are very different from making logic*. You don't just make memory in your fab today and logic tomorrow. But even when you stay in your lane, the industry operates on very long cycles and needs scale to function at any reasonable price at all. You don't just dust off your backyard fab to make the odd bit of memory whenever it is convenient.

Nobody is going to do anything if they can't be sure that they'll be able to run the fab they built for a long time and sell most of what they make. Conversely fabs don't tend to idle a lot. Sometimes they're only built if their capacity is essentially sold already. Given how massive the AI bubble is looking right now, I personally wouldn't expect anyone to make a gamble building a new fab.

* Someone explained this at length on here a while ago, but I can't seem to find their comment. Should've favorited it.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#177

Post by [deleted] »

jbverschoor wrote: post #169
ajb wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dram alternates between feast and famine; it's the nature of a business when the granularity of investment is so huge (you have a fab or you don't, and they cost billions -maybe trillions by now). So, it will swing back. Unfortunately it looks like maybe 3-5 years on average, from some analysis here: https://storagesearch.com/memory-boom-bust-cycles.html (That's just me eyeballing it, feel free to do the math)

A waiver is a waiver. The cost is per square mm. It’s pure supply and demand

[deleted]

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#178

Post by ThrowawayR2 »

incompatible wrote: post #57
minkeymaniac wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doubled in the last 4 months https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5Zc-FsUDCM Upgraded by adding 64GB.. last Friday I sold the 32 GB I took out for what I paid for the 64 GB in July... insane

Time to start scouring used-PC sales to reclaim the RAM and sell it for a profit?

Have you not noticed the domain of the submitted article? Others are way, way ahead on that already.

(Including the submitter. In their comment history is "Tip: You can sell used server RAM or desktop modules through BuySellRam to recover value from old hardware." at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45800881 and all of the submissions of this domain are from this user: https://news.ycombinator.com/from?site=buysellram.com )

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#180

Post by ikiris »

ramshanker wrote: post #98

Somebody do the math on when we will reliably start running out of Grid Power. Than only this "AI builout" will slow down. Manufactiring generators is boring, and very less invested than manufacturing AI servers.

Why do you think the build out will stop instead of electricity prices soaring?

They can afford to pay more.

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