171–180 of 1001 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think a baseline requirement would be that it… thinks. That’s not a thing LLMs do.
That’s an odd claim, given that we have so-called thinking models. Is there a specific way you have in mind in which LLMs are not thinking processes?
it doesn't make him one
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I also quite like the way he puts it. However, from a certain point onward, the AI itself will contribute to the development—adding nines—and that’s the key difference between this analogy of nines in other systems (including earlier domain‑specific ML ones) and the path to AGI. That's why we can expect fast acceleration to take off within two years.
Isn't that one of the measures of when it becomes an AGI? So that doesn't help you with however many nines we are away from getting an AGI. Even if you don't like that definition, you still have the question of how many nines we are away from having an AI that can contribute to its own development. I don't think you know the answer to that. And therefore I think your "fast acceleration within two years" is unsupporte…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The interview which I've watched recently with Rich Sutton left me with the impression that AGI is not just a matter of adding more 9s. The interviewer had an idea that he took for granted: that to understand language you have to have a model of the world. LLMs seem to udnerstand language therefore they've trained a model of the world. Sutton rejected the premise immediately. He might be right in being skeptical here…
yeah that "model of the world" would mean: babies are already born with "the model of the world" but a lot of experiments on babies/young kids tell otherwise
> but a lot of experiments on babies/young kids tell otherwise
I believe they are born with such a model? It's just that model is one where mummy still has fur for the baby to cling on to? And where aged something like 5 to 8 it's somehow useful for us to build small enclosures to hide in, leading to a display of pillow forts in the modern world?
>What takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it’s a march of nines. Every single nine is a constant amount of work. Every single nine is the same amount of work. When you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine. Then you need the second nine, a third nine, a fourth nine, a fifth nine. While I was at Tesla for five years or so, we went through maybe three…
Reminds me of a time-honored aphorism in running: A marathon consists of two halves: the first 20 miles, and then the last 10k (6.2mi) when you're more sore and tired than you've ever been in your life.
>What takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it’s a march of nines. Every single nine is a constant amount of work. Every single nine is the same amount of work. When you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine. Then you need the second nine, a third nine, a fourth nine, a fifth nine. While I was at Tesla for five years or so, we went through maybe three…
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Even without AGI, current LLMs will change society in ways we can't yet imagine. And this is both good and bad. Current LLMs are just a different type of automation, not mechanical like control systems and robots, but intellectual. They don't have to be able to think independently, but as long as they automate some white-collar tasks, they will change how the rest of society works. The simple transistor is just a sma…
>What takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it’s a march of nines. Every single nine is a constant amount of work. Every single nine is the same amount of work. When you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine. Then you need the second nine, a third nine, a fourth nine, a fifth nine. While I was at Tesla for five years or so, we went through maybe three…
>What takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it’s a march of nines. Every single nine is a constant amount of work. Every single nine is the same amount of work. When you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine. Then you need the second nine, a third nine, a fourth nine, a fifth nine. While I was at Tesla for five years or so, we went through maybe three…
Academia has rediscovered itself
Signal attenuation, a byproduct of entropy, due to generational churn means there's little guarantee.
Occam's Razor; Karpathy knows the future or he is self selecting biology trying to avoid manual labor?
His statements have more in common with Nostradamus. It's the toxic positivity form of "the end is nigh". It's "Heaven exists you just have to do this work to get there."
Physics always wins and statistics is not physics. Gamblers fallacy; improvement of statistical odds does not improve probability. Probability remains the same this is all promises of some people who have no idea or interest in doing anything else with their lives; so stay the course.