171–180 of 260 posts
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This guy? One of the best traders in history. https://priceonomics.com/the-trade-of-the-century-when-georg... His streak was something like 25% or 30% over 30 years? The tide is definitely going out. The Fed created a huge bubble and everyone knew it. Fed Balance sheet at $9 trillion…
was . He has been making a lot of similar predictions for a while.
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I read a lot of these type of predictions, often you see some people say it's a great time to buy, and others it's a bad time to buy, and generally you will only remember the people who guessed correctly, so none of this helps you today at all. Every time those people who got lucky will appear in some future ad or article making a new prediction, and generally fewer will be lucky twice. In the long run, everyone is l…
This is why the dollar cost averaging technique works so well. No, it's not likely to provide you a financial windfall, but it's also not likely to yield you financial devastation either. If you're investing for retirement then it generates quite a bit of wealth in the long term.
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The rationalizations before they happened are always very intelligent sounding, even in retrospect. If you have 100 intelligent sounding speculators lay out their reasoning and one hits the jackpot, it doesn't mean much. The general problem is each has a mental (or computer) model of the world that is a vast simplification of the world. When they get it right it sounds like they understood and accounted for all the v…
You are not looking if they "sounded" intelligent. You are looking if they were true.
And Michael Burry has been predicting crashes every few years since the 2008 one. And Bill Ackman predicted 'hell is coming' at the onset of the pandemic and made $2B [0]. And there were US Senators that also did possibly illegal things to pull money out of the market before the public knew about the pandemic. Outside of disclosures filed with the SEC, stock trading is anonymous yet they will have all sorts of headli…
I just found out that there's a new ETF being filed that tracks trades by democrats and republicans.
Probably beat the market easily
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The fact that they had good reasoning in the past does not guarantee they will continue in the future.
You are right, but it is not very useful way of looking at the world. Sometimes you just need to trust people on certain things to be able to make useful decisions having very little or no knowledge in the subject. One useful way of dealing with this is to look at the past performance of the person. Assuming you have no other information about the market, if you see a person having track record of well-reasoned, accu…
And Michael Burry has been predicting crashes every few years since the 2008 one. And Bill Ackman predicted 'hell is coming' at the onset of the pandemic and made $2B [0]. And there were US Senators that also did possibly illegal things to pull money out of the market before the public knew about the pandemic. Outside of disclosures filed with the SEC, stock trading is anonymous yet they will have all sorts of headli…
> And there were US Senators that also did possibly illegal things to pull money out of the market before the public knew about the pandemic I just found out that there's a new ETF being filed that tracks trades by democrats and republicans. Probably beat the market easily
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I've always interpreted Buffet's advice as aimed at time periods way longer than one year.
Not like he has a fucking Bloomberg terminal with no latency or anything. Like he can't spell out FPGA's but he delegates. Not half as senile as he makes himself look, not a shit mathematician at all, not a folklore-driven dude that anybody can imitate (counterfactual, that's part of the business), publishes information on his colon biopsies for a reason, he is rich because he wants to be rich , he likes money. Plus…
And Michael Burry has been predicting crashes every few years since the 2008 one. And Bill Ackman predicted 'hell is coming' at the onset of the pandemic and made $2B [0]. And there were US Senators that also did possibly illegal things to pull money out of the market before the public knew about the pandemic. Outside of disclosures filed with the SEC, stock trading is anonymous yet they will have all sorts of headli…
> And there were US Senators that also did possibly illegal things to pull money out of the market before the public knew about the pandemic I just found out that there's a new ETF being filed that tracks trades by democrats and republicans. Probably beat the market easily
And Michael Burry has been predicting crashes every few years since the 2008 one. And Bill Ackman predicted 'hell is coming' at the onset of the pandemic and made $2B [0]. And there were US Senators that also did possibly illegal things to pull money out of the market before the public knew about the pandemic. Outside of disclosures filed with the SEC, stock trading is anonymous yet they will have all sorts of headli…
I have a very different position on this. I think we will see the most growth we’ve ever seen in the next decade and it will be powered by AI. I think most of these investors don’t really understand how close we are to have very useful AI and what it’s impact will be. We are roughly on the verge of another industrial revolution
The real economy will stagnate. AI can automate some work and intensify future technological discoveries, but that won’t make energy any cheaper, clean our environment, create more humans, or make resources as easily extractable as they were 100 years ago.
The real economy can’t grow too much more than it’s current size, at least in the physical world.