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AMD passes Intel in market cap

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Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#171

Post by panick21_ »

FinalBriefing wrote: post #39
tiahura wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Things are worth what others are actually willing to pay, there is no such thing as a metaphysical true worth. So yes, Tesla is actually worth whatever the market cap is.

That idea seems to be ignoring the fact that other brands just haven't made EVs yet. People want Telsas now because, for a long time, they were the only good EVs on the market. As other companies are now rolling out their first EVs, Tesla's market cap will surly go down. I've also heard the argument that Tesla's network of chargers brings more value, but...there will also be more competitors in that space in the near…

The idea that other companies are now rolling out their first EVs is complete nonsense. The argument 'competition is coming' I have been hearing since 2014.

There are many EV that came out that most people don't know much about since they were not produced in large numbers.

And we should also consider that the battery space is running into material shortages and Tesla had the longest to prepare for that and are the largest buyer of battery materials/batteries on the plant.

Other companies might want to sell more EV, but they will literally not be able to.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#172

Post by spaceman_2020 »

panick21_ wrote: post #162
spaceman_2020 wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless China's clearly stated policy that recognizes Taiwan as a part of China changes, it isn't really a black swan event. It's more like an increasingly active volcano. It might not blow up tomorrow, but if you deliberately built a house on its edges, it would be hard to sympathize with you when it finally does go kaput.

That assumes the only possible way the China-Taiwan issue can be resolved is some kind of event that would disrupt the production, ie. war or at least blockade of Taiwan.

If I'm running a country or a multibillion dollar business, I'd certainly not want to leave my future wellbeing to the good sense of two powers with a gigantic historical axe to grind.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#173

Post by simonebrunozzi »

jongjong wrote: post #84

I had invested in AMD when Lisa Su took over as CEO. I had been keeping tabs on the company for some time. Unfortunately I needed money to cover my basic living expenses and had to sell all my shares about a year later. Even at the time, it was painful because I had spent a lot of time researching AMD and I was very optimistic about Lisa Su based on her background and her tenacity. I could have made maybe 20x on my i…

Remember there's also CALL options, if you are really bullish on a company. Less capital needed, and more risky, but if you're right, you're richer.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#174

Post by zh3 »

rsp1984 wrote: post #125

Call me crazy but I think long term (10 years +) the Intel strategy of fabricating chips domestically is the correct choice. There's a ton of geopolitical pressure in this direction. The US simply doesn't want to be dependent on Taiwan for chips, for obvious reasons. Intel knows this and is trying to become the TSMC of the west. And frankly they're the only ones that can pull it off. I'd be surprised if 10 years from…

It's not a bad bet, if you're losing market leadership through poor execution then getting the government to prop you up as a backstop to the bogeyman seems a reasonable tactic.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#175

Post by mywittyname »

caycep wrote: post #131
running101 wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am still invested. I only got in like 1 or 2 years ago. Kind of think I should put more in.

I probably missed the boat. But thinking now is the time to buy INTC and hold off on buying AMD...until the roles are reversed again?

A new player could step in and take on Intel. Maybe the owners of ARM wise up and get into the manufacturing arena.

People made it big on AMD and Nvidia because they got lucky by owning the players who profited from the shakeup that cloud computing and ML brought to the industry. If you told someone 15 years ago that companies would be buying clusters of Nvidia GPUs for $100s of thousands of bucks, I doubt many people would believe it.

Intel certainly isn't a bad buy right now. Lots of things could happen and the industry will certainly look a lot different in 20 years. I can see a path where they manage to out-maneuver everyone else, but I think it's just as likely that they go the way of other major players.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#176

Post by panick21_ »

enragedcacti wrote: post #133
tiahura wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We’ve been hearing that for at least 4 years at this point. Along with scenarios where Volkswagen or Ford is going to teach Tesla how things really work. I’m not persuaded. First, my understanding is that Tesla has a night and day lead in battery sourcing. Second, Tesla doesn’t have the legacy costs that the others do. Also, at this point, Tesla is still selling cars faster than they can build them. Even if demand we…

> First, my understanding is that Tesla has a night and day lead in battery sourcing. They have a factory where Panasonic employees come in and make batteries for them (a little glib, but not that far off), but aside from that they really don't have some secret sauce that we know about. They are putting CATL batteries in their cars just like everyone else and they don't have any mining or refining operational unlike…

You are making a number of mistakes.

First of, Tesla is buying massively from Panasonic, LG and CATL. They are also doing their own batteries in addition to that. The production of that is behind schedule, but not that far, and I can believe how little credit Tesla is getting for literally turning into a battery company over just a few years. Their batteries are gone give them a huge advantage in margin.

> depend on volume 4680 production which is behind at Panasonic as well

Tesla 4680 have nothing to do with Panasonic. Panasonic is also gone make 4680 format cells for Tesla, but those are totally different and have nothing to do with the cells currently shipping from Texas.

> Ford has the supply for 400,000 EVs lined up

Tesla makes that many in less then 6 month. And there is a large difference between signing a supply agreement and actually getting it. The lithium industry had scaling problems and pretty much all expert suggest a shortage is coming.

For Ford to get all those materials, it requires a huge number of supply expedition projects to go correctly and that is not at all guaranteed.

For until a few years ago didn't even believe that had to worry about batteries or battery materials at all. And since then they have done a 180 and try to tell everybody how EV focused and smart they are, when in-fact they are behind the curve.

> Volkswagen has the supply to outproduce Tesla in 2024

Not sure where you got this from, but its false.

> BYD is already producing more PHEV/BEV than Tesla

Nice that you snuck PHEV in-there. But yeah BYD is a great company, but their cars are mostly China only.

> if there is a solid-state breakthrough it won't be happening at Tesla.

Solid stage or rather what people actually mean by that, lithium anodes, is not inherently superior to silicon anodes. Andt Tesla has some of the most interesting research in that direction.

Also solid state will not really be relevant in the BEV space for many years to come.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#177

Post by klelatti »

rsp1984 wrote: post #125

Call me crazy but I think long term (10 years +) the Intel strategy of fabricating chips domestically is the correct choice. There's a ton of geopolitical pressure in this direction. The US simply doesn't want to be dependent on Taiwan for chips, for obvious reasons. Intel knows this and is trying to become the TSMC of the west. And frankly they're the only ones that can pull it off. I'd be surprised if 10 years from…

Your first para is correct but this doesn’t mean that Intel will become the TSMC of the west.

Doing so needs not only huge amounts of investment but a massive change in the business model and by all accounts culture. Neither of these are a given at all.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#178

Post by mywittyname »

kbenson wrote: post #124
ssharp wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bill the commenter was mentioning is currently in the Senate and hasn't been voted on yet. It would bring back the $7,500 credit for any EV that is built in the U.S. and removes the 200,000 limit. The bill also changes the mechanics of the credit so that it is applied immediately off the purchase price rather than a tax credit whenever you file. It also allows for up to a $4,000 credit on used EV's.

> $7,500 credit for any EV that is built in the U.S > It also allows for up to a $4,000 credit on used EV's. I can't wait for the eventual headline about how dealerships would sell cars to themselves so they could resell them and pocket an extra $4k. I have no doubt that story will happen and come out, I'm just wondering whether it will be during or after it's common, and how widespread the abuse will be, given that…

Dealerships are collectively, very powerful groups. This would not the be first time they've convinced Congress to dump money into their pockets with such schemes. CARS Act comes to mind.

The outrage will come, but dealerships will have bled every dollar they can before anything is done. And the same people voting for the bill will come out next year campaigning against such corruption and stupidity by the government.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#179

Post by outworlder »

njarboe wrote: post #51
elromulous wrote: post #18

So I'm very much in camp AMD. But, market cap has proven over and over again to be kind of bogus. E.g. do we really think Tesla is actually worth more than the rest of the top 10 or so automakers?

The top ten automakers have huge amounts of debt and pension liabilities. Tesla has neither. None of them are making profitable EVs at scale. Tesla has been hitting their goal of growing at 50% per year for a decade and plans to continue until they are making 20 million cars a year in 2030. Their gross margin on cars is the highest in the industry. The next 5 years are critical for the existing players and many will…

The P/E for Tesla suggest it is going to take decades(at the peak, over a century) for that valuation to make sense.

Even if it grows to the point that it destroys all other automakers and become a monopoly, it's still too high. You can only sell so many cars.

The valuation seems to be taking into account that Tesla is not only about cars, but also artificial intelligence, which would allow it to expand to other markets(taxis, maybe even military).

Jury is still out.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#180

Post by bryanlarsen »

outworlder wrote: post #179
njarboe wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The top ten automakers have huge amounts of debt and pension liabilities. Tesla has neither. None of them are making profitable EVs at scale. Tesla has been hitting their goal of growing at 50% per year for a decade and plans to continue until they are making 20 million cars a year in 2030. Their gross margin on cars is the highest in the industry. The next 5 years are critical for the existing players and many will…

The P/E for Tesla suggest it is going to take decades(at the peak, over a century) for that valuation to make sense. Even if it grows to the point that it destroys all other automakers and become a monopoly, it's still too high. You can only sell so many cars. The valuation seems to be taking into account that Tesla is not only about cars, but also artificial intelligence, which would allow it to expand to other mark…

Huh, Tesla P/E is 107, so it'd require about a 5X growth in income to reach a sane P/E. If it keeps growing at 80% p.a., that'll take about 3 years. 4 years at 50% growth. And a 5X increase isn't unreasable, that's still under 10% market share.
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