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AMD passes Intel in market cap

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Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#131

Post by caycep »

running101 wrote: post #111
jongjong wrote: post #84

I had invested in AMD when Lisa Su took over as CEO. I had been keeping tabs on the company for some time. Unfortunately I needed money to cover my basic living expenses and had to sell all my shares about a year later. Even at the time, it was painful because I had spent a lot of time researching AMD and I was very optimistic about Lisa Su based on her background and her tenacity. I could have made maybe 20x on my i…

I am still invested. I only got in like 1 or 2 years ago. Kind of think I should put more in.

I probably missed the boat. But thinking now is the time to buy INTC and hold off on buying AMD...until the roles are reversed again?

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#132

Post by dralley »

NotZachari wrote: post #98

While I'll admit that Intel's made several missteps recently and AMD has closed in, the reality is that they pad their numbers using pipeline and microarchitecture tricks to get higher raw stats that don't translate to real-world performance. Intel's tends to be a bit more expensive for the same "tier" with lower listed performance numbers but better performance. That's because AMD has consistently done shit like usi…

I'm not a hardware engineer so I have to ask, how is using "shorter pipelines" supposed to be illegitimate? Just because Intel may do better at the workloads you have in mind, that doesn't mean that AMD's approach doesn't do better in other (legitimate) workloads.

Pentium 4 and Bulldozer both had (very) long pipelines and look how they turned out. Long pipelines certainly doesn't fundamentally equal better real-world performance, short pipelines != better benchmarks. It depends on the combination of architectural decisions considered together, right?

You're going to have to expand on this concept a bit to convince people that these design decisions are a deliberate attempt to cheat the benchmarks, throwing out lingo doesn't quite suffice.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#133

Post by enragedcacti »

tiahura wrote: post #57
ido wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The less literal reading of OPs statements is that Tesla is overvalued & will at some point in the future face correction down to a value more in line with their sales/profit potential. I have no horse in the game (no Tesla nor any other automotive stocks) but we’ve definitely seen companies being massively overvalued in the past and then face fierce correction - AOL was once worth $222 billion and later (not even th…

We’ve been hearing that for at least 4 years at this point. Along with scenarios where Volkswagen or Ford is going to teach Tesla how things really work. I’m not persuaded. First, my understanding is that Tesla has a night and day lead in battery sourcing. Second, Tesla doesn’t have the legacy costs that the others do. Also, at this point, Tesla is still selling cars faster than they can build them. Even if demand we…

> First, my understanding is that Tesla has a night and day lead in battery sourcing.

They have a factory where Panasonic employees come in and make batteries for them (a little glib, but not that far off), but aside from that they really don't have some secret sauce that we know about. They are putting CATL batteries in their cars just like everyone else and they don't have any mining or refining operational unlike BYD. Their battery research and production is massively behind schedule and the future of the Model 3, Y, and Cybertruck all depend on volume 4680 production which is behind at Panasonic as well.

Ford has the supply for 400,000 EVs lined up between now and 2024 and Volkswagen has the supply to outproduce Tesla in 2024. BYD is already producing more PHEV/BEV than Tesla, and if there is a solid-state breakthrough it won't be happening at Tesla.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#134

Post by wmf »

rsp1984 wrote: post #125

Call me crazy but I think long term (10 years +) the Intel strategy of fabricating chips domestically is the correct choice. There's a ton of geopolitical pressure in this direction. The US simply doesn't want to be dependent on Taiwan for chips, for obvious reasons. Intel knows this and is trying to become the TSMC of the west. And frankly they're the only ones that can pull it off. I'd be surprised if 10 years from…

It's very hard to lose in the short term, year after year, and hope that a black swan event puts you back into a winning position.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#135

Post by spaceman_2020 »

rsp1984 wrote: post #125

Call me crazy but I think long term (10 years +) the Intel strategy of fabricating chips domestically is the correct choice. There's a ton of geopolitical pressure in this direction. The US simply doesn't want to be dependent on Taiwan for chips, for obvious reasons. Intel knows this and is trying to become the TSMC of the west. And frankly they're the only ones that can pull it off. I'd be surprised if 10 years from…

Spot on. Any large country that's NOT desperately building up fab facilities within the country right now is playing with fire. This stuff is the new oil. Insane how little of our modern life works without chips.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#136

Post by ajross »

itsoktocry wrote: post #59
njarboe wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The top ten automakers have huge amounts of debt and pension liabilities. Tesla has neither. None of them are making profitable EVs at scale. Tesla has been hitting their goal of growing at 50% per year for a decade and plans to continue until they are making 20 million cars a year in 2030. Their gross margin on cars is the highest in the industry. The next 5 years are critical for the existing players and many will…

> The top ten automakers have huge amounts of debt They have huge amounts of debt because they run huge financing departments and therefore also have a huge number of assets on the balance sheet. > Their gross margin on cars is the highest in the industry. They have a completely different sales model, so it's apples to oranges. Most OEMs wholesale cars to dealers, of course those margins will be smaller. > Tesla has…

> Base rate fallacy, extrapolated into infinity, sure.

You only need to extrapolate Tesla's existing revenue and growth out for five years to make them the biggest automaker in history, though.

Clearly, yes, it's going to stop somewhere. But a first principles argument like yours is running out of room. It made sense a few years back when they were still popular-but-tiny. At this point, the median expectation pretty much has to be that Tesla will be the dominant vehicle manufacturer globally for the next decade or three.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#137

Post by smugma »

“The original headline to this story mistakenly stated that it was the first time AMD had passed Intel in market cap. In fact, it happened before in Feb. 2022.”

So not really newsworthy?

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#138

Post by EduardoBautista »

elromulous wrote: post #18

So I'm very much in camp AMD. But, market cap has proven over and over again to be kind of bogus. E.g. do we really think Tesla is actually worth more than the rest of the top 10 or so automakers?

The other automakers are not in the energy business like Tesla is.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#139

Post by jml78 »

asdajksah2123 wrote: post #92
parkingrift wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt that Tesla can continue to grow 50% YoY as soon as 2023. The Model S, X, and Y are extremely expensive compared to the competition. I’m in the market for an electric SUV right now. The Kia EV6 and Hyundai Ioniq 5 both seem legitimately better than the Model Y, and they are substantially less expensive. The Model Y AWD Long Range is $68,000. The Ioniq 5 SEL is $52,000. Tesla has historically never had to compe…

Tesla is still making poor quality cars. No other car I've seen spends as much time in repairs as Teslas do.

If you are taking the model S and X sure. model 3 and Y, negative.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#140

Post by Aloha »

mg wrote: post #69
Aloha wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dont think they can continue to grow at that rate and preserve their gross margin. The high end part of the market isnt large enough to sustain 20m cars a year. To give you an idea, for scale, the two largest producers made 10m each in 2019 roughly respectively - and those two are VW and Toyota. I cannot see in any way for Tesla to displace that many units and maintain their margins at the level they have them. The…

I heard the same arguments when Apple had a hit with the iPhone. The high end of the market is saturated, and soon the competition would bring down the prices. But the price of the iPhone continued to go up. It never stopped going up. Because it continued to offer more and more value. People already see some value in Teslas self-driving technology. And that value will continue to go up for a long time.

You can squeeze to afford a 900 dollar phone. You can't squeeze someone from a 30,000 dollar car to a 90,000 dollar one, the math doesn't work.
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