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Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

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Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#171

Post by binarray2000 »

civilized wrote: post #131
binarray2000 wrote: post #128

It hurts to read the prevailing opinion in the western sphere these days, Fukuyama and comments here included. HN was mostly logical and rational in the past, but lately (Cov-19 and Russia) it is outright one sided. Are you aware that the USA and its "allies" have orchestrated a Coup d'etat in Ukraine? Are you aware of the "F*ck EU" phone call in which Nuland moves people in Ukrainian politics like peons on the chess…

> Are you aware that the USA and its "allies" have orchestrated a Coup d'etat in Ukraine? You mean that thing in 2014 where a few Ukrainians protested a thing the president did that they didn't like, and in response the president of Ukraine promptly fled the country never to return? Meanwhile the current president has the entire Russian Army bearing down on him and hasn't left. Some "coup". The truth is, all "Evil We…

Whenever one mentions misdeeds of the West, the other side answers with "whataboutism" and basically stops the discussion. How convenient to hide behind counter-accusation. It is easier to do that than to lose time and energy defending the undefendable. For example, how would one defend my sentence "USA is literally built on the genocide of the Natives and the susequent landgrab!"? You cannot, it is a fact. A fact that changes the perspective of the world in which an amoral entity preaches morality.

Yanukovych was no doubt corrupt, but Ukraine after 2014 is so squeaky clean? And, the "entire Russian Army" is after the Comedian Zelensky? Are you serious?

You obviously don't know a squat about Russia. Otherwise, you wouldn't write "Russia is weak and corrupt and cannot bend Ukraine to its will". Too bad.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#172

Post by [deleted] »

binarray2000 wrote: post #171
civilized wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Are you aware that the USA and its "allies" have orchestrated a Coup d'etat in Ukraine? You mean that thing in 2014 where a few Ukrainians protested a thing the president did that they didn't like, and in response the president of Ukraine promptly fled the country never to return? Meanwhile the current president has the entire Russian Army bearing down on him and hasn't left. Some "coup". The truth is, all "Evil We…

Whenever one mentions misdeeds of the West, the other side answers with "whataboutism" and basically stops the discussion. How convenient to hide behind counter-accusation. It is easier to do that than to lose time and energy defending the undefendable. For example, how would one defend my sentence "USA is literally built on the genocide of the Natives and the susequent landgrab!"? You cannot, it is a fact. A fact th…

[deleted]

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#173

Post by tim333 »

pphysch wrote: post #83
zozbot234 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Realist" IR theory in general misses the importance of self-sustaining structures, systems and institutions. The peaceful international order itself is a cooperatively self-sustaining institution, and this handily explains why a huge amount of countries which benefit from a workable international order are reacting so quickly to Russia's actions.

How do you rationalize 'the West just loves peace' (paraphrasing) with our current policy of funneling huge amounts of weapons to back an Ukrainian insurgency, and the resolute opposition to Ukraine surrendering and saving thousands of lives on any terms?

You maintain peace by attacking those that break it. Letting invading dictators get away with it only encourages them.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#174

Post by civilized »

binarray2000 wrote: post #171
civilized wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Are you aware that the USA and its "allies" have orchestrated a Coup d'etat in Ukraine? You mean that thing in 2014 where a few Ukrainians protested a thing the president did that they didn't like, and in response the president of Ukraine promptly fled the country never to return? Meanwhile the current president has the entire Russian Army bearing down on him and hasn't left. Some "coup". The truth is, all "Evil We…

Whenever one mentions misdeeds of the West, the other side answers with "whataboutism" and basically stops the discussion. How convenient to hide behind counter-accusation. It is easier to do that than to lose time and energy defending the undefendable. For example, how would one defend my sentence "USA is literally built on the genocide of the Natives and the susequent landgrab!"? You cannot, it is a fact. A fact th…

The Russian army can't even keep truck tires inflated.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#175

Post by tim333 »

pphysch wrote: post #85
ogogmad wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do we know that this is not another Afghanistan/Chechen-1 for Russia? They lost both of those, and I don't think those got off to the same troubled start (for Russia) as this one did. Think flight from the country, brain drain, economic meltdown, loss of 3 generals in one fortnight , Ukraine being flooded with weapons, equipment loss, major logistical failures, the loss of the information war... An outright defea…

Afghanistan was about Soviet/American imperial conquest & controlling Asia. Chechnya was about suppressing separatism / national security. Ukraine is also about national security, but a rung up from Chechnya because Moscow is concerned about a hostile military empire putting hypersonics there. Cuban Missile Crisis but even more extreme (imagine if Cuban extremists were shelling and killing Cuban Americans in Florida…

>Ukraine is also about national security

I don't buy that. Russia is already bordered by three NATO countries. One more wouldn't make a difference. And no one is planning on invading Russia due to the world's largest nuke stockpile.

This seems more about Putin's ambitions to restore the Russian empire and be Tsar of all the Russias. He's not the most straightforward fellow in saying what he's really up to. I think this is as much about national security as it is about a special operation to counter neo nazis.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#176

Post by pphysch »

tim333 wrote: post #173
pphysch wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you rationalize 'the West just loves peace' (paraphrasing) with our current policy of funneling huge amounts of weapons to back an Ukrainian insurgency, and the resolute opposition to Ukraine surrendering and saving thousands of lives on any terms?

You maintain peace by attacking those that break it. Letting invading dictators get away with it only encourages them.

Slippery slope fallacy.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#177

Post by tim333 »

sidibe wrote: post #126
CodeArtisan wrote: post #47

Alexander Nevzorov on invading Ukraine back in April 2021 https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/taood7/uncanny_pre... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Nevzorov

Thanks for sharing, that is an incredible video. Seems like he even nailed the details. Much more impressive than Mearsheimers self-fulfilling prophecies

Anyone recognised as a saint by the Russian Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster has to be doing something right.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#178

Post by pphysch »

tim333 wrote: post #175
pphysch wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Afghanistan was about Soviet/American imperial conquest & controlling Asia. Chechnya was about suppressing separatism / national security. Ukraine is also about national security, but a rung up from Chechnya because Moscow is concerned about a hostile military empire putting hypersonics there. Cuban Missile Crisis but even more extreme (imagine if Cuban extremists were shelling and killing Cuban Americans in Florida…

>Ukraine is also about national security I don't buy that. Russia is already bordered by three NATO countries. One more wouldn't make a difference. And no one is planning on invading Russia due to the world's largest nuke stockpile. This seems more about Putin's ambitions to restore the Russian empire and be Tsar of all the Russias. He's not the most straightforward fellow in saying what he's really up to. I think th…

> One more wouldn't make a difference.

Characterizing Ukraine as "practically Estonia" does not reflect any understanding of geopolitics. I don't even know where to begin in addressing that knowledge gap.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#179

Post by binarray2000 »

civilized wrote: post #174
binarray2000 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whenever one mentions misdeeds of the West, the other side answers with "whataboutism" and basically stops the discussion. How convenient to hide behind counter-accusation. It is easier to do that than to lose time and energy defending the undefendable. For example, how would one defend my sentence "USA is literally built on the genocide of the Natives and the susequent landgrab!"? You cannot, it is a fact. A fact th…

The Russian army can't even keep truck tires inflated.

You are trolling, I get that now.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#180

Post by wolverine876 »

ch4s3 wrote: post #17
srvmshr wrote: post #6

Another counterview has emerged from Meduza, the press group which was 'blocked' in Russia as part of their silencing drive. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/03/12/has-russia-s-invasio... Apparently, according to Meduza we are only seeing the bright side of things - the news we want to hear. The battlefront has several other shock surprises if you look at the Ukrainian losses. It seems bleeding heavily on both sides…

Even supporting the Ukrainian side, it’s clear that they’re taking heavy losses and doubly so on the civilian side. What I think people are correctly surprised by is how well the Ukrainians are utilizing NATO training an arms, and how badly the Russians are performing.

> Even supporting the Ukrainian side, it’s clear that they’re taking heavy losses and doubly so on the civilian side.

While that is truly horrible, it does not affect victory. Insurgencies fighting for their homes can absorb enormous losses, invaders cannot. (Anyone fighting or their homes can - look at the damage taken by Japan, Russia, Germany, etc. in WWII - Japan suffered two nuclear bombs and still didn't surrender until they thought Russia might invade.) Look at US wars against insurgencies in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq: The attrition was enormously one-sided, and it didn't make a difference. You can't win a war of attrition against an insurgency, afaik, unless you essentially kill everyone (and even Putin won't do that).

It was expected that Ukraine would be reduced to an insurgency within a few days. The fact that they are still fighting military-to-military and with significant success is an enormous bonus. In the end, they may have to fight as an insurgency but the cost to Russia is expected to be much too high.

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