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Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

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Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#121
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "Single Point of Failure" is Putin. If he's deposed or killed, we probably have a very different Russia the next day.

One can dream but I highly doubt, Russian history is littered with autocrats and tyrants. Brief periods of even nominal democracy have also been highly unstable. The deep rooted ‘russian greatness’ is a very fertile ground for populists.

I wouldn't expect a Jeffersonian democracy from a coup.

But a new regime that makes peace and stays within Russian borders would be likely.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#122
post #6

Another counterview has emerged from Meduza, the press group which was 'blocked' in Russia as part of their silencing drive. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/03/12/has-russia-s-invasio... Apparently, according to Meduza we are only seeing the bright side of things - the news we want to hear. The battlefront has several other shock surprises if you look at the Ukrainian losses. It seems bleeding heavily on both sides…

Yes this exactly. I think just looking at a map of ukraine is enough to see that while we are showered by ukrainian success stories to the point where you'd think russia is completely stalled in their invasion... the reality is quite different. Here's a good updated live map with a frontline overlay:

https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/09...

Keep in mind the war started 3 weeks ago. The americans didn't even reach Baghdad 3 weeks into their invasion of Iraq in 2003. It's just all reminiscent of the Armenia-Azerbaïdjan war in 2020 in terms of "false social media driven hopes". If we want to help the ukrainians, downplaying the russian threat is like the total opposite of what we need.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#123
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything I’m hearing about Mariupol is the opposite of what I want to hear. It’s an absolute disaster that’s ratcheting up day-by-day. The Russian army is using modern artillery to conduct medieval siege warfare. They’re deliberately starving the whole population to death and the city (like most cities today) had zero preparations to deal with a siege. We’ve got to find some way to get these people supplies!

Quoted post unavailable.

There is one solution to the death problem, Russia ends their war of aggression, a war of choice, and a war of conquest to illegally expand their borders. Illegal because they are parties to agreements saying it is, which they've reneged on.

Surrender is a likely false hope for survival. Given Putin started a war with multiple agreements in place saying Russia wouldn't, why trust any future agreements they're a party to?

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#124
post #97
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Afghanistan was about Soviet/American imperial conquest & controlling Asia. Chechnya was about suppressing separatism / national security. Ukraine is also about national security, but a rung up from Chechnya because Moscow is concerned about a hostile military empire putting hypersonics there. Cuban Missile Crisis but even more extreme (imagine if Cuban extremists were shelling and killing Cuban Americans in Florida…

1. Why is Russia afraid of a defensive alliance with no compulsion to join (unlike the hilariously named Warsaw Pact)? The most enthusiastic members of the alliance are the closest to them... I wonder why... 2. NATO doesn't have hypersonic missiles. Russia has hypersonic missiles. 3. Why does Russia get to bolster their security by ravaging their democratic neighbours? Seems like zero-sum type behaviour. Maybe Russia…

1. If we look at history NATO, it is not a defensive alliance. It is a mostly defensive alliance. Many people here don't even know how the NATO was formed and the promises given to Russia? Russia thinks NATO has expanded beyond control. They don't want to be fully covered by it? Also, there are other strategic interests like Crimea, etc...

2. With this logic NATO doesn't have anything. The power of NATO comes from its member. And, it is a conglomerate of powerful nations?

3. Because it considers itself as a bear. Why does the US invade other countries in name of democracy and freedom? It is all strategic interest. Why does China care about the small island? Why does China get anxious when the US tries to shrug off its hegemony by making new nato like groups, supply arms, and ammunition.

Geopolitics is a very complex topic. Again, I am not trying to justify any war crimes. I am just giving my opinion. I hope peace will prevail soon.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#125

I can’t believe you’d discuss this situation without considering the nuclear angle. Putin holds a significant wild card in terms of tactical nuclear weapons. I’m sure Russia believes that they could be deployed inside of Ukraine in order to force an end to the Ukrainian resistance and the west would continue to remain on the sidelines to avert escalation to the end of the world. A total defeat/humiliation of Russia w…

He could, but considering the relations between Russian and Ukrainian peoples and the risk of WW3 this would most likely just result in mutiny and the subsequent removal of Putin, probably even just in reaction to that order.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#126

Alexander Nevzorov on invading Ukraine back in April 2021 https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/taood7/uncanny_pre... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Nevzorov

Thanks for sharing, that is an incredible video. Seems like he even nailed the details. Much more impressive than Mearsheimers self-fulfilling prophecies

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#127
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Why is Russia afraid of a defensive alliance with no compulsion to join (unlike the hilariously named Warsaw Pact)? The most enthusiastic members of the alliance are the closest to them... I wonder why... 2. NATO doesn't have hypersonic missiles. Russia has hypersonic missiles. 3. Why does Russia get to bolster their security by ravaging their democratic neighbours? Seems like zero-sum type behaviour. Maybe Russia…

1. If we look at history NATO, it is not a defensive alliance. It is a mostly defensive alliance. Many people here don't even know how the NATO was formed and the promises given to Russia? Russia thinks NATO has expanded beyond control. They don't want to be fully covered by it? Also, there are other strategic interests like Crimea, etc... 2. With this logic NATO doesn't have anything. The power of NATO comes from it…

> Why does the US invade other countries in name of democracy and freedom?

It doesn't.

It invades countries for other purposes (that is, both the overt and any covert purposes of the invasions are not “democracy and freedom” except occasionally in the sense of addressing a foreign threat to American democracy and freedom or that of an American ally threatened by the country invaded), but sometimes does something notionally aimed at democracy and/or freedom for the people once there, which may notionally be either justified as a moral act given that some governance must be established or as an instrumental means of achieving the invasions overt purpose (often it's sold both ways.)

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#128
It hurts to read the prevailing opinion in the western sphere these days, Fukuyama and comments here included. HN was mostly logical and rational in the past, but lately (Cov-19 and Russia) it is outright one sided.

Are you aware that the USA and its "allies" have orchestrated a Coup d'etat in Ukraine? Are you aware of the "F*ck EU" phone call in which Nuland moves people in Ukrainian politics like peons on the chessboard? Are you aware of real Nazis being part of government and security aparatus in Ukraine? Are you aware of Odessa, where dozens of pro-Russian people were burned alive by those same Nazis? Are you aware that Zelensky threatened to make atomic weapons at the Munich Security Conference mid February 2022? Are you aware of the complicity of Biden and his family in this (Hunter and his board seat at Burisma), not to speak of VP Biden blackmailing Ukrainians to fire their attorney general for probing Burisma or they'd get no money from (I think) MMF?

This is just a small selection of past events, not to mention new ones.

All this is not an isolated, Russia/Ukraine (both predominantly Orthodox Christian), issue. The collective West is causing death and destruction in the Muslim world for at least 30 years, as well. Furthermore, Snowden and Wikileaks documents have revealed a part of corruption in the US political and intelligence system. And there was no war waged by the West that wasn't supported by the Western media. Speaking of Fukuyama: He is a neocon, part of the cabal whose ideology has caused millions of dead and displaced people, their property destroyed. Their ideology has immensely weakened the US with meaningless and costly wars. And you still listen to him instead to shun him.

You look ridiculous to the World Outside of the West (~6 billion people) with your "we stand with Ukraine", with how you cancel and sanction everything Russian, how you moralize. Business model of the West for centuries is robbery and enslavement, who rises against it gets bombs on his head (hint: that are those in the World Outside the West). USA is literally built on the genocide of the Natives and the susequent landgrab! That West led by that USA is now condemning Russia for not wanting Nazis with nuclear weapons at her doorstep - imagine that!

Do you really don't get all this or do you act out of pure self interest (Russia is a too rich country to have all those riches/resources only for itself)?

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#129
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The populists win the French election no matter who wins. The left has collapsed completely, and Macron is sounding pretty right wing attacking wokeness and defending western values versus Islam.

Macron is definitely more right-wing than might have been expected five years ago. That being said, even with the largest possible definition of "populist", he hardly qualifies. The most likely outcome of this election round (president + assembly) is a macron presidency with an "official" right-wing coalition of macron's party with the most "centrist" part of the right wing. Very run of the mill stuff. And populists…

I’m not saying he’s a populist, I’m saying that the populists have scored a significant victory by pushing him to the right on cultural issues even if he ultimately wins reelection.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#130
post #71
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do we know that this is not another Afghanistan/Chechen-1 for Russia? They lost both of those, and I don't think those got off to the same troubled start (for Russia) as this one did. Think flight from the country, brain drain, economic meltdown, loss of 3 generals in one fortnight , Ukraine being flooded with weapons, equipment loss, major logistical failures, the loss of the information war... An outright defea…

The difference is that afghans and Chechnyans won’t surrender even if you turn their country into rubble around their feet. They’re accustomed to a brutally hard existence. I’m not sure Ukrainians are in the same situation.

I agree. Many people press guerilla warfare which I don't think is applicable in Ukraine.

Afghanistan and Ukraine are different countries. I don't think people in Ukraine can tolerate the life of Afghani people. They are not used to luxury and were indoctrinated with radical religious views. They were following terrorism, although I don't think they were terrorists as portrayed by the media. Ukraine people are modern and they understand the value of life. And, even if they resist Russian and start to act like a terrorist, the EU won't support them in long run. There is no place in the EU for terrorism or radical beliefs.

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