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Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

blog.waymo.com

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Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#171

Post by vkou »

javagram wrote: post #119
Cthulhu_ wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Cars have been pervasive for over a century and virtually none of the actual improvements in safety have come from "hoping humans do better". I disagree, given how standards for getting a driver's license are different between countries and getting more and more tighter. In the US, unless things are different from TV, you can get trained by someone else with a license in a regular car and do an exam. Over here, you…

> In the US, unless things are different from TV, you can get trained by someone else with a license in a regular car and do an exam. Be cautious about believing TV drama is realistic. States I’m familiar with require 30 hours of licensed classroom instruction and 6 hours of licensed driving instruction beyond the training via a parent or other adult. In any case, no amount of training seems to stop people from using…

I did not have a driver's license prior to moving to the US.

The process was getting it was doing a multiple-choice quiz, followed by 20 minutes of paid 'instruction' as I drove around the neighborhood... And then a 'test' that repeated the exact same route. I 'passed' with a score of 83/100.

In contrast, I failed the test four times, while taking it in BC, and because it would have to be scheduled 3 months in advance, eventually gave up on it.

I am glad that the test-taker feels confident that after I stumble-assed my way through driving 20 and 25 mph on empty residential streets, I am now capable of safely driving on freeways.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#172

Post by Daho0n »

dawnerd wrote: post #163
Daho0n wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla's aren't self driving. They are helping humans drive. For a Tesla to not drive the speed limit it would have to either be told to do so or fail.

Maybe you should drive a Tesla before you claim what it does. It will gladly speed without driver input. There’s an offset setting since not everywhere has the same customs. Here it’s about 7% increase is safe without getting pulled over. The FSD beta is rolling out to everyone that wants it (which is a lot) in the next week or so. Yes it’s not perfect, but saying it’s not self driving is doing a huge disservice to t…

If I take a drive on a highway in the Tesla and the signs says 80 the car won't just decide to suddenly go 125 just because it feels like having some fun. You speed, your car doesn't, unless it is faulty.

Tesla's aren't self driving no matter how many times Elon says so. It's not even the best in most tests in being a driver assistance..

Being a fan of a car and not being able to see it's faults isn't healthy.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#173

Post by neolog »

Animats wrote: post #18

You can read the California DMV's set of autonomous vehicle accident reports.[1] Almost all the Waymo reports are "vehicle was entering intersection, detected cross traffic, stopped, was rear-ended by human driver". There's one Waymo report where someone ran a stop sign and hit them. The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all hi…

> That's probably the main feature needed for self-driving cars to coexist with human-driven cars.

How is that feature related to self-driving cars? Are you saying self-driving cars get rear-ended more than human-driven cars do?

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#174

Post by dawnerd »

Daho0n wrote: post #172
dawnerd wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe you should drive a Tesla before you claim what it does. It will gladly speed without driver input. There’s an offset setting since not everywhere has the same customs. Here it’s about 7% increase is safe without getting pulled over. The FSD beta is rolling out to everyone that wants it (which is a lot) in the next week or so. Yes it’s not perfect, but saying it’s not self driving is doing a huge disservice to t…

If I take a drive on a highway in the Tesla and the signs says 80 the car won't just decide to suddenly go 125 just because it feels like having some fun. You speed, your car doesn't, unless it is faulty. Tesla's aren't self driving no matter how many times Elon says so. It's not even the best in most tests in being a driver assistance.. Being a fan of a car and not being able to see it's faults isn't healthy.

ok

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#175

Post by vkou »

pnutjam wrote: post #121
javagram wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the US, unless things are different from TV, you can get trained by someone else with a license in a regular car and do an exam. Be cautious about believing TV drama is realistic. States I’m familiar with require 30 hours of licensed classroom instruction and 6 hours of licensed driving instruction beyond the training via a parent or other adult. In any case, no amount of training seems to stop people from using…

I'm teaching my kids, insurance companies stopped giving any discount for drivers ed. My daughters all passed the exam to get a learning license on the first try. I made them read the dmv book, on the state website. I also quizzed them on various scenarios. They have friends who took classes and still failed the exam multiple times. IMHO, the problem has more to do with the entitlement around driving. People don't vi…

> People don't view it as a privilege.

It's difficult to view it as a privilege in a society that, over the past 70 years, was deliberately constructed with the expectation that everyone drives.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#176

Post by vkou »

pnutjam wrote: post #166
wing-_-nuts wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>IMHO, the problem has more to do with the entitlement around driving. People don't view it as a privilege. Large parts of the US have little to no public transit, and can only be accessed via car. You can't say driving isn't an entitlement and then arrange your infrastructure in such a way as to require driving.

Welcome to the USA. You shouldn't, but you certainly can and we have. Read any laws about driving licenses and reasons for suspension.

The problem is that the laws are trying to thread a needle between two entirely contradictory ideas - that it is both well and normal to build the world in a matter that expects everyone to drive - and that driving is a privilege that can be revoked from you.

You can't legislate, or law your way out of a basic contradiction in your society, so we end up in a middle ground where nobody is happy.

For another example of a basic contradiction - we allow and encourage people to drive intoxicated (After all, bars have parking lots, and do not enforce that every group have a designated driver), but not too intoxicated, and not in a manner that is too unlucky. The bar between the two is either an objective test from a breathalyzer device (a test that you can't take until you are pulled over - and one sets the bar too low for many people, in my opinion), or a fully subjective test of 'did you get into an auto accident, while sitting at 0.05 BAC'?

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#177

Post by sjcoles »

xyzzyz wrote: post #159
tablespoon wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The rear-ending problem will be solved as automatic emergency braking becomes standard on cars. Already, it's shipping on almost all high-end cars and 70-80% of midrange cars. There's a US auto industry goal of it being standard by 2022. That's probably the main feature needed for self-driving cars to coexist with human-driven cars. Not necessarily. I have a Honda, and the system in my car is deliberately designed…

The system I have in my Subaru is pretty useful, and warned me a few times when the vehicle in front of me has suddenly slowed down or stopped. However, it has too many false positives, and if it actually tried to brake every time, the false positives would have been very annoying and I would disable it.

It's generally split into two steps: forward collision warning and automatic emergency braking. Usually you can adjust the distance of the FCW in your infotainment system. I have to or even slight curves trigger it.

I have only had AEB kick in once when a driver decided to suddenly u-turn on a 45mph road and it saved my car from being totaled.

As always read the owners manual to know the limits. Most AEB systems are only rated to reduce the severity of a crash not prevent it from occurring.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#178

Post by 908B64B197 »

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #98
freddie_mercury wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any solution that relies on "let's just make humans beings better" is basically doomed to failure and little more than hand wringing and virtue signalling. Cars have been pervasive for over a century and virtually none of the actual improvements in safety have come from "hoping humans do better".

> Cars have been pervasive for over a century and virtually none of the actual improvements in safety have come from "hoping humans do better". I disagree, given how standards for getting a driver's license are different between countries and getting more and more tighter. In the US, unless things are different from TV, you can get trained by someone else with a license in a regular car and do an exam. Over here, you…

> and getting more and more tighter.

It seems it's a trend to put more and more laws, red tape and regulations around driving in certain countries, and really around young people in general. All that voted by an aging population (who don't have to submit to the same requirements since their "rights" are grandfathered!) that's increasingly afraid of young people.

That coupled with the out of control unemployment numbers for young adults in the EU and sky high cost of everything makes me wonder what the brain drain situation is in Europe. You meet a lot of young talented and educated Europeans engineers in the Bay Area for instance, are there the same number of Americans ones in Europe?

> Over here, you need a driving instructor in an adapted car (dual controls), and depending on how well you pick it up, spend anywhere between 15 and 50 (or sometimes more) hours practicing driving and traffic rules. There's a written / theoretical exam you have to study for (traffic rules), then a practical exam with an examiner.

> In my case, it cost me about $2500 in lessons to get my driver's license. Then I spent another $1500 or so on top of that to get my motorcycle driver's license, where there's even more emphasis on personal safety and safe driving.

I see how driving schools and bureaucrats in charge of examination might like this guaranteed work. No innovation required, and grandfathered right to licenses issued to older drivers (so good support from an aging population).

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#179

Post by kevincox »

Strilanc wrote: post #153

I really dislike the way the data is being summarized as "100% avoided or mitigated*". First, they're omitting the types of case they're failing to mitigate (rear endings in this case). Cue "60% of the time it works every time" anchorman scene. Second, "mitigated" is defined to mean a 25% relative reduction in chance of serious injury. Which is good, but again smacks of "60% of the time it works every time". Basicall…

I agree the results are excellent but the way they try to over-present them is very scummy. I don't see why they didn't think the results were good enough to stand on their own.

Re: Replaying real life: how the Waymo Driver avoids fatal human crashes

#180

Post by xyzzyz »

sjcoles wrote: post #177
xyzzyz wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The system I have in my Subaru is pretty useful, and warned me a few times when the vehicle in front of me has suddenly slowed down or stopped. However, it has too many false positives, and if it actually tried to brake every time, the false positives would have been very annoying and I would disable it.

It's generally split into two steps: forward collision warning and automatic emergency braking. Usually you can adjust the distance of the FCW in your infotainment system. I have to or even slight curves trigger it. I have only had AEB kick in once when a driver decided to suddenly u-turn on a 45mph road and it saved my car from being totaled. As always read the owners manual to know the limits. Most AEB systems are…

Yeah, that makes sense. The automatic braking has never triggered for me, but the collision warning triggers pretty regularly (probably at least once a week) on one part of my commute, right around going uphill here https://goo.gl/maps/r7LpqzHq3Wqg6N8S7 where the system thinks I'm about to hit the parked white van, instead of realizing that the road is curved.

> Most AEB systems are only rated to reduce the severity of a crash not prevent it from occurring.

I think that Subaru actually calls their system Pre-Collision Braking.

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