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Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

aeon.co

171–180 of 205 posts

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Knowledge steadily accumulates over time. No, it doesn't. Only knowledge that people consider to have value will be retained over time. Many things are lost to history, for example.. nobody knows how to make cobblestone. (Or so I'm told)

This one strikes painfully close to home! I grew up on an old colonial street in a major Latin American city. Beautiful street "paved" with cobblestones. Somehow the cobblestones managed to look both randomly placed and have some "lines" that gave it a very orderly look. The cobblestones were placed in some substrate that allowed moss to grow between them. At some point about 10 years ago, the city decided to tear up…

> apparently nobody knows how to lay cobblestones anymore

This is regional. I went to a talk on cobblestone streets in New York. There are entire books dedicated to the craft, and new scholarship on it ongoing. (It pertains closely to the question of prefabricated infrastructure.)

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#172
post #4

There's a game called Seedship in which you direct a space ship that carries last remaining humans in existence to a new planet that will become their new home. You go from one planet to the next assessing their suitability. When you decide to settle the game ends. You can't travel indefinitely because ships systems degrade and people die. One of the worst fates for me in this game is settling humanity of the world d…

Neat! https://philome.la/johnayliff/seedship/play/index.html

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#173
post #29

Ringworld goes into this topic quite a bit, so it was interesting to me to see that the author is an astrobiologist who wrote "The Knowledge", about restarting civilization from scratch. Niven (who wrote Ringworld) also co-wrote "Lucifer's Hammer" with Jerry Pournelle, which was like a fun book version of a big-cast disaster movie, about a comet colliding with the earth in the mid-1970s. Lucifer's Hammer had some fai…

One interesting thing to contemplate along these lines is that the U235 to U238 ratio of naturally occurring uranium changes through time on Earth. They had about the same abundance when the Solar System was created but they have different half lives. U235 is about 0.70 billion years and U238 at about 4.47 billion years. Currently U235 is only 0.7% of natural uranium, but one can make a nuclear reactor with natural w…

>It is so much less safe and dirty.

When people say "nuclear reactors are safe," they mean advanced modern designs with computers everywhere and precise engineering, not a Bronze-age clay kiln filled to the brim with enriched material.

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can do only so much with intelligence if there are no metals or fossil fuels on your planet. With all the ingenuity you can't make reasonable amount of chemical elements that don't occur in your environment.

Wait, aren't dolphins an intelligent species? Would they have to make use of metals and fossil fuels to advance their intelligence?

Aquatic creatures will never develop a technological society because they don't have access to fire.

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would require the ability for the grid to say "no" and for industries to respond to "nos". That's available now, if you buy power in large enough amounts. It's not popular.[1] [1] https://seuc.senate.ca.gov/interruptibleservicecontractissue...

Yeah, there's just a bunch of issues today with how grids are operated. In order for this to really work well, we need national standards for both grid operators and grid users. The reason for all of this being both unpopular and requiring big purchases is because it's pretty much a 1 off deal between the grid operator and the purchaser. It requires that they both both come into the room to make a deal. Instead, we n…

There needs to be a standard bidding mechanism for buying/selling energy on the market.

No, not a spot market in electricity. California tried that two decades ago, with an auction every 15 minutes. It was such a disaster that PG&E, which had lobbied for it, went bankrupt. Speculators caused blackouts. The current system has a market, but it's a day-ahead system where generators bid to provide power tomorrow, and there's a small spot market for fine-tuning.

An overview.[1]

[1] https://pjm.adobeconnect.com/_a16103949/p5yj7cc7p75/

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#176
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> metallurgy, manufacture the concrete, or synthesize the petrochemicals in the absence of fossil fuel energy I think you could use biomass to bootstrap these. Biosmass wouldn't be sustainable, but once you have the metallurgy, etc in place you could then build wind turbines.

You run out of biomass before you can bootstrap yourself enough to build wind turbines. Sure the dutch built windmills, but they didn't have refined metals in to make a generator.

When the Dutch built windmills it wasn't the lack of metallurgy that prevented generators. It was just that generators weren't invented yet. Electricity was barely understood during the Dutch Golden Age.

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Conversely, were we born on a world a bit larger than Earth, we wouldn't be able to reach orbit the way we did, due to limits of chemical rocket propulsion.

> chemical rocket propulsion. If anyone wants to learn more about the history of this specific/niche topic, there's actually an interesting book (with a foreword by Isaac Asimov), Ignition!: An informal history of liquid rocket propellants by John Drury Clark: * https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/677285.Ignition_ * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Drury_Clark * PDF copy: http://www.sciencemadness.org/library/books…

It's so interesting that you mentioned that because just yesterday I came across a video [0] on Scott Manley's YouTube channel where he discusses this book exactly.

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wLk2j7_KB0

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#178
post #48
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In fact they are not pronounced the same. English is weird, sure, but I think if you have that kind of misconception then it's going to seem far stranger. "Loose" rhymes with "juice", "lose" rhymes with "news", if that helps.

Lose generally (RP, and I think 'most' dialects) does not rhyme with news. 'Lose' rhymes with 'two's [complement]'; 'news' rhymes with 'pews'. (The latter pair has a /j/ or 'yuh sound' before the vowel.) (Heh, really is a can of worms isn't it: 'choose' rhymes with 'lose'; not with 'loose'. Poor ESL learners, no envy from me! Hindi/devanagari, which I'm learning as a second language, is so easy by comparison.)

Lose, two's, news, and pews ALL rhyme for me.

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#179
Depends on what that means, but fossils have only been in widespread use for a couple of centuries, yet a lot of important discoveries were made before them. The energies from wind, water, animals and burning plants were widely in use before coal took off in Europe about 3 centuries ago.

Without (only a century of) oil, even without coal, the discovery of EM fields still would have led to (slower) development of hydro and wind electricity gear. Wherever you've got abundant electric, the rest follows. With technology to tap into it, the sun pours FAR more power onto the surface than needed to get 'modern'.

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#180
post #4

There's a game called Seedship in which you direct a space ship that carries last remaining humans in existence to a new planet that will become their new home. You go from one planet to the next assessing their suitability. When you decide to settle the game ends. You can't travel indefinitely because ships systems degrade and people die. One of the worst fates for me in this game is settling humanity of the world d…

Neat! https://philome.la/johnayliff/seedship/play/index.html

Thank you for finding it and posting the link.

I played three games, my highscore: 10,040

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