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Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

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Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#131

Post by Animats »

cogman10 wrote: post #122
godelski wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think even with our current knowledge no. We still haven't even really figured out how to do the energy sector without fossil fuels (we're pretty darn close though). But outside of that we have a lot of problems. One of the biggest challenges in climate is that the population has been so hyper focused with energy and transportation (because they are the primary drivers, but only 60% of emissions). Modern society ne…

I think we actually could do it today. The major issue is we couldn't do it without some major costs (It wouldn't be cheap or free). What we'd have to change is the way society consumes energy. Right now, we operate under the paradigm of "I request energy, the grid ramps up and down to fill demand". Instead, we could to switch over to "I ask the grid if capacity is available and use energy when it is". That would req…

That would require the ability for the grid to say "no" and for industries to respond to "nos".

That's available now, if you buy power in large enough amounts. It's not popular.[1]

[1] https://seuc.senate.ca.gov/interruptibleservicecontractissue...

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#132

Post by bluGill »

cogman10 wrote: post #122
godelski wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think even with our current knowledge no. We still haven't even really figured out how to do the energy sector without fossil fuels (we're pretty darn close though). But outside of that we have a lot of problems. One of the biggest challenges in climate is that the population has been so hyper focused with energy and transportation (because they are the primary drivers, but only 60% of emissions). Modern society ne…

I think we actually could do it today. The major issue is we couldn't do it without some major costs (It wouldn't be cheap or free). What we'd have to change is the way society consumes energy. Right now, we operate under the paradigm of "I request energy, the grid ramps up and down to fill demand". Instead, we could to switch over to "I ask the grid if capacity is available and use energy when it is". That would req…

We already have a bit of that. My company operates an iron foundry. It is night shift only because electric rates are cheaper at night. This is slowly catching on.

Until people have electric cars though, for most there is no point. Most of what I do with electric I will do at any price when I want to. My oven needs to work when I'm hungry. My furnace needs to keep the pipes from freezing (there is some load balance opportunities here). I turn lights on when it is dark.

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#133

Post by EricE »

fredophile wrote: post #31

My impression is that the big road block to unlocking something like the industrial revolution is the precision of your tools. During the industrial revolution there were big advances in metal tools. Maudslay's development of a metal lathe that could be used to make metal tools was a huge step forward. I think if you can reach this point of development you should be able to make continued progress using non-fossil fu…

Indeed, precision was key: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNRnrn5DE58

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#134

Post by bluGill »

tastyfreeze wrote: post #101
davidhbolton wrote: post #81

I've seen no mention of the myriad other uses we make from petroleum other than transport uses. There's 144 (out of 6000) listed here. https://www.ranken-energy.com/index.php/products-made-from-p... It would be a pretty bleak society without many of these never mind all of the various medicinal stuff such as antiseptics, antihistamines, vitamin capsules, cortisone, glycerin, asparin

Without ability to synthesize medications society would need to go back to herbal medicines. Too bad 90% of society knows jack squat about the natural sources of commonly used medications.

It wouldn't matter much if we did. Many are only available in some areas. Often they are in such impure forms that you can't actually use them even if you know it is there. And concentration is varied enough that you can't do precision treatment.

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#135

Post by el_nahual »

mikewarot wrote: post #50
lawrenceyan wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really an issue. Knowledge steadily accumulates over time. The key foundations of human intelligence and ingenuity will always remains regardless of whether or not fossil fuels exist for us to exploit. Non-renewable resources only served to speed up our industrialization.

> Knowledge steadily accumulates over time. No, it doesn't. Only knowledge that people consider to have value will be retained over time. Many things are lost to history, for example.. nobody knows how to make cobblestone. (Or so I'm told)

This one strikes painfully close to home! I grew up on an old colonial street in a major Latin American city. Beautiful street "paved" with cobblestones.

Somehow the cobblestones managed to look both randomly placed and have some "lines" that gave it a very orderly look. The cobblestones were placed in some substrate that allowed moss to grow between them.

At some point about 10 years ago, the city decided to tear up a giant trench in the middle of the street to replace some sewage. When they were done, they covered the trench with concrete and then re-placed the stones they had removed onto the concrete.

It looks nothing like it used to. Just messy. I think that if someone who didn't grow up there were to see it, they would think it was a perfectly charming street, but really it lost so, so much.

I asked around and apparently nobody knows how to lay cobblestones anymore. There was a certain art to how they were placed and the substrate selected: dirt, then sand (what kind? how coarse?) then stones, then something else. This ensured that they would never wash away even in the torrential rains we get here every year.

Placing cobblestones seems like an easy thing to do. Just rocks on dirt, right? But how do you ensure they never move, they never wash away, they don't get covered in dirt or greenery.

The craziest thing is that the street had remained basically pristine for what was probably 100+ years, but the new stones on concrete are already falling out.

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#136

Post by MichaelZuo »

It really depends on how far back civilization is reset, if a collapse occurs all the way back to the stone age, it would mean game over then for at least a few hundred million years.

If the iron age, probably cans reboot if the population is kept small enough to avoid any Malthusian traps.

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#138

Post by carapace »

mikewarot wrote: post #50
lawrenceyan wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really an issue. Knowledge steadily accumulates over time. The key foundations of human intelligence and ingenuity will always remains regardless of whether or not fossil fuels exist for us to exploit. Non-renewable resources only served to speed up our industrialization.

> Knowledge steadily accumulates over time. No, it doesn't. Only knowledge that people consider to have value will be retained over time. Many things are lost to history, for example.. nobody knows how to make cobblestone. (Or so I'm told)

One of the scariest things I ever read was the true story of how the British Navy discovered and then lost the knowledge of how to cure scurvy.

IIRC, they found that limes (or lemons) would prevent scurvy on long voyages; then the ships got faster AND the switched to a citrus fruit lemons (or limes) that didn't have enough vitamin C to prevent scurvy, but they didn't realize it because the faster voyages didn't allow enough time for scurvy to develop; then on some longer voyages sailors did develop scurvy despite eating the citrus fruit, so the Navy erroneously concluded that citrus fruit didn't cure scurvy after all.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scurvy#19th_century

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#140

Post by cogman10 »

Animats wrote: post #131
cogman10 wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we actually could do it today. The major issue is we couldn't do it without some major costs (It wouldn't be cheap or free). What we'd have to change is the way society consumes energy. Right now, we operate under the paradigm of "I request energy, the grid ramps up and down to fill demand". Instead, we could to switch over to "I ask the grid if capacity is available and use energy when it is". That would req…

That would require the ability for the grid to say "no" and for industries to respond to "nos". That's available now, if you buy power in large enough amounts. It's not popular.[1] [1] https://seuc.senate.ca.gov/interruptibleservicecontractissue...

Yeah, there's just a bunch of issues today with how grids are operated.

In order for this to really work well, we need national standards for both grid operators and grid users. The reason for all of this being both unpopular and requiring big purchases is because it's pretty much a 1 off deal between the grid operator and the purchaser. It requires that they both both come into the room to make a deal.

Instead, we need something closer to the NEM in Australia. There needs to be a standard bidding mechanism for buying/selling energy on the market.

Our electric meters need to be hooked up to a grid pricing network and our appliances need to be able to talk to that network through our meters.

Once there is a standard communication protocol and pricing network, then you'll start to see neat things happen with smarter power consuming products.

For that to work, however, it needs to be setup nationally. It won't work if every single grid invents their own market or bidding standard. Ideally, this would be an international standard.

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