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Airlines flying empty planes to keep flight slots during coronavirus outbreak

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Re: Airlines flying empty planes to keep flight slots during coronavirus outbreak

#171

Ironic. I had heard tales of the old Soviet Union about trains running empty to fill distance quotas. It was presented as the ultimate proof of how messed up their system was.

This is just another instance of the classic Soviet problem. A scarce resource is allocated by a government bureaucracy instead of a market, and the bureaucracy's design is imperfect, so nonsensical incentives fall out of it sometimes. There's no irony. It's just kind of quirky for the West to manage flight/landing slots this way, instead of an auction (as the FCC does with spectrum).

I used to work for a consulting company and heard similar stories for IT budgets. Companies nearing the end of financial year with budget to spare would scramble to get more consultants in to spend the remainder, otherwise the following year their budget would be scaled back to whatever they actually spent.

Re: Airlines flying empty planes to keep flight slots during coronavirus outbreak

#172
post #138

Ironic. I had heard tales of the old Soviet Union about trains running empty to fill distance quotas. It was presented as the ultimate proof of how messed up their system was.

This appears to be happening in China with electricity quotas. Running AC and machines in empty factories to make quota. "Local companies and officials are fraudulently boosting electricity consumption and other metrics in order to meet tough new back-to-work targets" https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Lights-go-on-but-no... "Video evidence. In #Wenzhou, factory manager told they must consume 3000 kWh electrici…

When a metric becomes a target

Re: Airlines flying empty planes to keep flight slots during coronavirus outbreak

#173

The oddity I've personally had, is I had been planning a summer trip to Germany for the Euro 2020 tournament (assuming they don't get cancelled.) However, I hadn't bought plane tickets yet. Due to the virus, I figured I might get cheaper rates. The opposite has been true. The round trip went from ~$1200 up to ~$1800 in just a month or two. I'm still tracking flights, but so far I haven't seen a good dip in pricing. I…

That's opposite of my experience, although I am not flying until September. I booked a flight from JFK to Athens and back for around $400. The day after I booked (earlier this week) alerts were almost 2x as high. I wonder if I just got lucky.

Re: Airlines flying empty planes to keep flight slots during coronavirus outbreak

#174

The oddity I've personally had, is I had been planning a summer trip to Germany for the Euro 2020 tournament (assuming they don't get cancelled.) However, I hadn't bought plane tickets yet. Due to the virus, I figured I might get cheaper rates. The opposite has been true. The round trip went from ~$1200 up to ~$1800 in just a month or two. I'm still tracking flights, but so far I haven't seen a good dip in pricing. I…

I've also seen this! I went casually looking at the route I fly most often (but I'm not flying myself at the moment) and both economy and business fares seem to have gone up very substantially. What's going on? The airlines have changed their rebooking policy to make it much more lenient for the next few months. Maybe this is making the tickets more valuable and pushing up the price?

I think that if passenger numbers go down and fixed costs stay the same, and if passengers aren't very price sensitive (their company is paying their fare) then it makes sense to raise prices.

The trouble is that this will drive out the holiday flyers and leave them dependent on business flyers whose companies can turn off the tap on a whim. And will have every incentive, and excuse, to do so.

Re: Airlines flying empty planes to keep flight slots during coronavirus outbreak

#176

The oddity I've personally had, is I had been planning a summer trip to Germany for the Euro 2020 tournament (assuming they don't get cancelled.) However, I hadn't bought plane tickets yet. Due to the virus, I figured I might get cheaper rates. The opposite has been true. The round trip went from ~$1200 up to ~$1800 in just a month or two. I'm still tracking flights, but so far I haven't seen a good dip in pricing. I…

You might be buying too far out. People are assuming the virus will be contained by then.

I just looked at prices for a round trip ticket from San Francisco to Montreal for Monday. It was $389. I've never seen such a low price for buying two days in advance.

Re: Airlines flying empty planes to keep flight slots during coronavirus outbreak

#177

The oddity I've personally had, is I had been planning a summer trip to Germany for the Euro 2020 tournament (assuming they don't get cancelled.) However, I hadn't bought plane tickets yet. Due to the virus, I figured I might get cheaper rates. The opposite has been true. The round trip went from ~$1200 up to ~$1800 in just a month or two. I'm still tracking flights, but so far I haven't seen a good dip in pricing. I…

They can't fly half a plane if only half the seats are taken. During times of low demand you'll have to pay for the empty seats.

Re: Airlines flying empty planes to keep flight slots during coronavirus outbreak

#178
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This appears to be happening in China with electricity quotas. Running AC and machines in empty factories to make quota. "Local companies and officials are fraudulently boosting electricity consumption and other metrics in order to meet tough new back-to-work targets" https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Lights-go-on-but-no... "Video evidence. In #Wenzhou, factory manager told they must consume 3000 kWh electrici…

I wonder what this will do to the method of estimating Chinas economy via Electricity/Coal usage. What is next on the line that isn't being actively tampered with.

> I wonder what this will do to the method of estimating Chinas economy via Electricity/Coal usage.

I think the causality goes the other way. I think that they are doing this because that is how their economy is measured.

Re: Airlines flying empty planes to keep flight slots during coronavirus outbreak

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In authoritarian states you frequently get situations where you're punished for not meeting certain bureaucratic metrics. For example, in China word is factory output is used as a proxy for productivity, so they're allegedly running factories without producing anything just to raise the power bill to appear productive. Face is ingrained in Chinese culture partly because in an authoritarian state where your behavior m…

The American model for government funding is also a bit messed up ( at least what I remember from high school civics in the 1980s) where each department must spend what they are allocated or the department is guaranteed to get less money in the next fiscal year budget. I could be wrong but this creates a disincentive for saving money as most states and the federal government work on the same model.

Big companies often work this way too.

Re: Airlines flying empty planes to keep flight slots during coronavirus outbreak

#180

Does anyone have any reliable information on the risks of flying right now? I took a couple flights this week, seemed to be status quo. People of all ages flying with no one practicing any special hygiene measures.

This formula gives you the odds someone on a plane is infected:

1-(1-IR)^N

N is the number of seats.

IR is the infection rate.

Takes a lot of assumptions to get the odds someone on the plane is infected, and even more to get the answer you want. The biggest assumption would be how likely you are to get the virus just because someone on your plane has it.

You could replace the N with total number of people at an airport. Again, not that helpful because it takes a lot of assumptions and only gives you half the picture.

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