Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#171

Post by sliken » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 2:20 AM UTC

slg wrote: post #58

DamnYuppie wrote: post #10

I see this trend continuing for Tesla. Aside from Musk's leadership, which is very polarizing, I don't see their cars as being very compelling compared to the upcoming offerings of Audi and Porsche. Tesla isn't really competing against Ford/Chevy/Honda/Toyota. Instead they are competing against BMW/Mercedes/Porsche/Audi. By comparison Teslas seems like a toy compared to those other brands so I will gladly wait and gi…

Is there any Audi, Porsche, or BMW on the horizon that will be close to competing on price with the Model 3? They all seem to be targeting the Model S/X market and Tesla's results seem to be showing that market is shrinking.

I agree, but from what I can tell the Audi, Porsche, and BMW are targeting where the model S was... not where it is today. I.e. range in the 200-260 miles, not 370.

Seems likely by the time any of the competition is shipping in reasonable numbers (already hearing complaints of limited battery supply from the German companies) there's likely to be a model S with the improve battery pack based on the same tech as the model 3.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#172

Post by olivermarks » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 2:22 AM UTC

kec wrote: post #146

kylec wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

BMW doesn't need to pay top dollar for a prestigious brand, they already have one. Tesla will be bought out by the likes of Geely or Tata who don't have strong brands of their own, but have already been going around and scooping up smaller car brands like Volvo and Jaguar.

They have history of doing so though: They own both Mini and Rolls-Royce now.

It's quite possible something similar to the Fisker bankruptcy might happen - Fisker's assets were bought out by Wanxiang Group who then launched Karma Automotive, resuming manufacture of their 'Revero' plug-in hybrid car, which is an improved version of the old Fisker Karma.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#173

Post by ericd » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 2:23 AM UTC

treis wrote: post #135

freerobby wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla is [...] innovating faster This is the point that so many people miss when arguing that an EV revolution is coming and others will catch Tesla. It's not that Tesla's lead is insurmountable; it's that Tesla's lead is growing, not shrinking, with each passing day. No single feature or technology tells this story adequately but the compound effect of all of them does: it's 2019, and not a single manufacturer can…

>This is the point that so many people miss when arguing that an EV revolution is coming and others will catch Tesla. It's not that Tesla's lead is insurmountable; it's that Tesla's lead is growing, not shrinking, with each passing day. Eventually you reach a point where everything is good enough so being better isn't much of an advantage. Like if Tesla gives you 700 mi range but Audi does 500mi, does anyone really c…

Sure, but there are other dimensions to innovate on - charging speed, self driving, active suspension, efficiency, the list goes on. And 500 miles at what price? Tesla is going for the best AND cheapest electric drivetrain.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#174

Post by golfer » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 2:24 AM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #41

mamon wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are definitely living in different universes. ICEs do not get any subsidies, quite the opposite: in many countries, e.g. the whole EU gas is so heavily taxed that more than half of the retail price is tax. Also, Tesla is an easy target to make fun of, because of its narcistic, arrogant CEO that seems to think that he can outsmart everyone, when in fact his business is a total mess.

Gas is about $3/gallon in the US. Ford is moving towards only making SUVs, pickup trucks, and the Mustang. Different countries, not different universes. I like that Musk is narcissistic and arrogant in public. He doesn’t hide it like the execs at every automaker who was part of Dieselgate. Be an asshole, by all means, just deliver faster. (Credit to BYD and their electric bus fleet efforts, and China’s renewables pus…

Do you also love it when Musk calls people pedos? What about when he lies about taking the company private on Twitter? This is the narcissism you enjoy?

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#175

Post by kylecordes » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 2:27 AM UTC

hi5eyes wrote: post #102

moduspol wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Model 3 owner here: Tesla already feels at least three years ahead of other manufacturers, and the cars other manufacturers are promising in the next few years are aiming to possibly compete with what Tesla's been selling for at least a year. The Model S is being sold today with 370 miles of range, Autopilot, and the Supercharger network. Where will Tesla be in a few years if/when other manufacturers catch up with th…

>370 miles of range, Autopilot, and the Supercharger network >Where will Tesla be in a few years if/when other manufacturers catch up with that? wouldnt that be highly dependent on teslas cash burn and desperate cash grabs to survive the next quarter? in a few years you should hope to still retain some form of autopilot, maybe the supercharger network is shared/sold off, 370 miles of range? battery tech isnt improvin…

> supercharger network is shared/sold off

Selling the supercharger network to a separate company, and enabling it to serve all EVs, seems like an obviously great idea. Rebrand it from "Tesla Supercharger" to “Supercharger". Tesla cars can stiull be sold as compatible with “the Supercharger network”.

I'm not a financial modeling kind of person, but I suspect such a beast could sell for quite a lot of money, strengthening Tesla's finances. Perhaps one of the gigantic oil companies that owns/franchises a gigantic chain of gas stations would like to stake out a leading claim on EV charging, those folks have plenty of money.

It would also further Tesla's stated goal of accelerating the transition to EV's or whatever.

Of course there are downsides, giving up this proprietary advantage. Still, that downside versus retiring some risk seems like a nice trade-off.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#176

Post by kylecordes » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 2:30 AM UTC

S_A_P wrote: post #14

As someone who does not have any stake in Tesla, I dont see a path forward for them without a company with the bank account on the scale of Apple/Google/Amazon funding them. Bootstrapping software is hard, hardware is harder, cars are 10x harder than those squared...

Tesla as a part of Apple (whose cash stuck between mattress cushions far exceeds the market cap of Tesla) would be unstoppable.

Also, a Tesla car is an iPhone in a world of flip phones. The Tesla design ethos fits Apple pretty nicely.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#177

Post by azinman2 » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 2:31 AM UTC

golfer wrote: post #168

sandworm101 wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A few more years of this amd they may be bought out by the likes of BMW. The tesla brand is worth something, even if on the hood of a german car.

Tesla has about $9B in debt. They are not an attractive takeover candidate. They've never turned an annual profit.

Apply bankruptcy and sell the assets for cheap... Id imagine many would want to pick up the remains...

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#178

Post by Allvitende » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 2:32 AM UTC

krapp wrote: post #156

goshx wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, you would expect that someone from tech revolutionizing an entire industry at global scale would get a little bit more respect and appreciation here.

I respect the engineers and workers actually doing the revolutionizing, not the man taking all the credit and the money.

Can you provide any documentation of this being the case? Because here is Tom Mueller, Co-founder of SpaceX and designer of initial Merlin rocket engine saying that is not the case.

https://twitter.com/lrocket/status/1099411086711746560

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#179

Post by maxerickson » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 2:32 AM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #90

logicx24 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In one sense, electric vehicle manufacturers are getting a bonus via the tax credit.

A woefully inadequate subsidy, which phases out entirely too soon.

Are vehicles subsidies the best way to drive progress on battery density and cost?

They need to be if you are going to use them to reward wealthy Tesla investors and vehicle buyers.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#180

Post by sliken » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 2:32 AM UTC

tertius wrote: post #101

How much would their cars cost if they actually made a profit? And if they were sold at those prices would anyone but them? My point: their customer service, tech and everything else people love about them is being subsidized by debt. They're not the U.S. government, they can't print money forever...

Google "tesla profit over time". You'll see losses from 2011-2013 (12 quarters or so) and a profit, that was the ramp up to the model S. Then a series of losses up to 2016 (13 quarters) where they shipped the model X. Then a series of losses up to 2018 (7 quarters) then 2 quarters of profit for the model 3.

So generally Tesla has large costs for expanding battery production and new assembly lines for new models, and then starts profiting. Their annual production is heavily up (277,000 in the last 4 quarters). If they stopped expanding they would be quite profitable.

Given that their most popular car is very likely to be the model Y (at least in the USA the crossover/small SUV is by far the most popular). Things look pretty promising for Tesla.