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US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

nytimes.com

171–180 of 436 posts

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#171
Yes, the student debt growth is unsustainable. It's up 10x in a bit over 10 years. Unbelievable!! There are only three things whose relative cost has gone up in the past 40 years: education, health care, and housing.

It's also amazing to me is that total household debt is 12.5 trillion, while the federal debt is just about $20 trillion.

In $12.5 trillion so many people have gotten an education and own a home. What exactly did anyone get with that $20 trillion the federal government has spent?

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's true, at least in STEM degrees. I learned a tremendous amount in university. I took classes to a 100 or 200 level in a bunch of subjects, which vastly increased my ability to reason about what I know and what I don't . My computer science degree required me to study topics like statistics, computational and applied mathematics (CAAM), and electrical/computer engineering (ELEC), and many more, alo…

The question is, how much of what you've learned in college actually contributes to your ability to work in the industry? They may all be useful skills in theory, but do you actually use them much? And those that you do use, did they have to be acquired in college, or could you have acquired them in the industry? Anecdotally, I am a software developer without a degree (I did some college, never finished it - but I ca…

I think it depends on the kind of work that one does or wishes to do.

A person can probably build back office web applications to meet simple business requirements with a coding bootcamp or by being self taught. If you're trying to scale a global website or web service for hundreds of millions of users with high availability and performance, then a CS education will help. A person doesn't need a CS degree to make iOS apps, but if one is inventing new technology, like self-driving cars or autonomous delivery drones, then a CS degree will help.

I don't apply every individual thing that I learned in my CS degree; a broad education helped me understand what my strengths are, so I can focus on my strengths. Many of the fields of study have been applicable to the kinds of business problems that I tackle. The computational mathematics and statistics have been highly relevant to modeling behavior for business optimization purposes, and to the application of machine learning. I have applied many of the lessons I learned about concurrency, distributed systems, operating systems, etc., in the design of high-performance, high-availability, low latency systems. My study of cryptography and computer security has been relevant.

What's right for a student depends on them, their goals, and their financial situation. I was fortunate to have financial support in the form of scholarships and aid from my parents, and the passion to want to devour all the knowledge I could about CS. An ambitious person who desires to make the most of themselves, to work on the hardest problems, to strive to reach the top of their field, will benefit from a CS education I think. But, I agree that a degree is not required to get a job as a programmer.

I would agree with the advice that one should only pursue a degree (if it's financially taxing) if one has a life plan to enter an industry based on that degree afterward, where that industry has adequately high paying jobs. There are also other forms of success than the ones I'm describing -- one does not need to be a technologist to succeed in business.

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#173
post #139
post #10

I don't know if it's a "bubble" (I am not qualified to say that), but I can't imagine that the current trend with student loans will continue. Looking at the numbers for someone entering college in 2017, it feels nearly predatory what a good portion of private and out of state colleges are charging. Even with financial aid, $30-40k a year for 4-5 years is insane. I was fortunate enough to have parents who made saving…

I truly don't understand the USA sometimes. Don't you guys know that in Europe higher education is free? Well where I'm from there was a very low nominal cost but my father was a public servant so cost was waived, I literally studied CS for 0 cost. And these countries are able to afford it all! Magic! I don't understand how people in USA are not aware of this and literally rioting in the streets. At the very least sw…

I don't understand why the cost of higher education has gone up so much. My grandparents paid for college via a job they only held in the summer and my parents paid for college working part time during the school year and full time in the summer - both of those jobs paying a little better than minimum wage. Yet I'm looking at 5 years of debt with a tech industry salary.

Having to paying for higher education wouldn't even be such a problem if it still cost what it did when my parents attended.

Although, maybe this whole thing is that the military budget has gone up by 80% since my grandparents attended college and education spending by the federal government has gone down 10 times. Also with the fact that there are five times as many Americans attending college than when my grandparents did, I definitely agree it's time we sat down as a nation and discussed whether we as a nation should pay for our children to be educated to the level necessary to excel in the modern economy.

I don't think the tax hike would even be that extreme. The reason tuition is what it costs right now is that it pays for the people who are getting free rides for various reasons. We got a letter from University of California once that among other things stated that only about 40% of tuition for someone who is paying to attend actually goes to education that student, the other 60% goes to paying for people the UC gave grants and scholarships to. [Warning - Napkin Math] If it actually cost something like $10k per year per american college student, of which there are 20.5 million students attending both public and private universities, we would need something like an addition $210 billion in tax revenue per year, or an addition 6.4% revenue. So your 25% federal tax bracket would turn into 26.6%. That's not all that much when you think about it. Or, the government renegotiates their military contracts to stop being price-gouged in order lower the defense budget. Then use the savings to help fund education...

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#175
post #10

I don't know if it's a "bubble" (I am not qualified to say that), but I can't imagine that the current trend with student loans will continue. Looking at the numbers for someone entering college in 2017, it feels nearly predatory what a good portion of private and out of state colleges are charging. Even with financial aid, $30-40k a year for 4-5 years is insane. I was fortunate enough to have parents who made saving…

Community College in the USA is so subsidized it costs maybe 1k a year to attend and they are strategically placed so 95% of the population can live at home and commute. Your expenses in the first 2 years where the content is exactly the same as a 4 year will be 0 living at home and if you do tutoring or a small part time job with all the free time you'll save a bit. Finish all your GEs, figure out what you want to do and go to a state college where In CA, 95% of the population can commute to again and tuition is 8-10k a year. Pick a good major you like AND can make ROI, get a summer internship and it is 100% possible to graduate with less than 10k in debt.

Instead, predatory colleges raise prices of room & board, add random extra charges, add useless admin, spend recklessly(see UC extravagant spending scandal) because of cost disease, poor understanding of personal finance and govt backed loans people keep going regardless of cost.

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#176
post #142
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rationale is that you can't take away an education the way you can repo a house or car. That and something about doctors borrowing a couple hundred K, then declaring bankruptcy to discharge it after graduation.

And yet, nothing prevents me from maxing out my credit cards, and spending it all on whiskey and limousine rides... Or totaling my car (While only having liability insurance). Lenders charge a premium over the prime interest rate because of the risk that they will never get their money back. Student loans are backed by the federal government - there is zero risk for these lenders. They seem to be under the impression…

> Why on earth should 18 year olds be entering financial transactions over hundreds of thousands of dollars, where they, but not their counterparty, get to shoulder all the risk?

It's pretty insane, to be honest

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#177
post #10

I don't know if it's a "bubble" (I am not qualified to say that), but I can't imagine that the current trend with student loans will continue. Looking at the numbers for someone entering college in 2017, it feels nearly predatory what a good portion of private and out of state colleges are charging. Even with financial aid, $30-40k a year for 4-5 years is insane. I was fortunate enough to have parents who made saving…

I definitely agree that rapidly rising education costs are a huge issue and need to be addressed. However, most (67%) undergraduate student loan amounts are for less than 20K[1] At 6.8% interest and 10 year repayment that comes to about $2,761 per year, with interest that can be paid with pre-tax money. Yes, thats a hefty amount to many, but earnings with a college degree are still much more than enough to offset tha…

I may be missing something, but I don't see anything in either of those figures that rules out people who leave school after one or two semesters, or otherwise don't graduate for some reason.

Maybe that's intended, but I feel like it'd be useful to include the average amount of debt of students who graduate. For my state (PA), it's at almost $35k, but only 71% of them have any debt at all [1]. That means that $35k is calculated with 29% of the values being zeroes.

My degree wasn't in math, but I think that means that if you graduated with any debt at all in PA, you've likely got $50k or more.

Does that mean it's a bubble? I don't know. I do know when I was an employee of a private university in PA, we were told year after year of 4% tuition hikes while being told we should be patting ourselves on the back because it's below the national average. That definitely sounds unsustainable, but so far it's been working out pretty well for colleges.

[1] http://ticas.org/posd/map-state-data#overlay=posd/state_data...

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#178
post #165
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I truly don't understand the USA sometimes. Don't you guys know that in Europe higher education is free? Well where I'm from there was a very low nominal cost but my father was a public servant so cost was waived, I literally studied CS for 0 cost. And these countries are able to afford it all! Magic! I don't understand how people in USA are not aware of this and literally rioting in the streets. At the very least sw…

I understand your sentiment, but realize even if we wanted to, swinging anything to government subsidy would tax us to death. Our healthcare AND university prices are ridiculous by any standards. You can't switch that to government controlled overnight. Where do you even start? Prices HAVE to come way down before the conversation happens, and those profiting ensure those conversations never happen. To put another way…

Certainly not overnight but you can start somewhere. Look, it works in most of the first world. Many comments are trying so hard to convince us that "in America is different" from their armchairs. It's like people try to convince themselves it's impossible. I truly think both for education and healthcare (both a disaster in the world's first economy vs the rest of the first world) if because those systems in the US are for-profit. These are examples of things that should be government run. How do you get there? Well, I won't say it's not hard especially with how politics are nowadays. But it has to be possible.

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#179
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

University is ripe for disruption. Not only has the prices spiraled out of control, no time in history has good quality information has been more available on the Internet. When I was in school, when YouTube was new, I would watch well crafted lectures from top tier professors for free. This allowed me to get a better handle on my brick and mortar class. The problem is the career value of a degree has not diminished,…

Yes and no. The lecture part can certainly be disrupted, but the most successful learning experiences I had in university were during face-to-face problem solving sessions with other classmates, small group discussion, and participating in a community of learners of a shared subject. There's also the challenges of learning that occurs through labs and other manipulation of the physical world that is hard to replicate…

Physical proximity doesn't need to be as expensive as it is, so there's still room for disruption.

Think about how University education should compare to high school education, in terms of costs. High school costs about $12k per student-year [0], which includes about 1200 hours of staff time [1].

My entire 4-year undergraduate course had less than 2000 hours of staff time, which was about half large lectures and half labs and tutorials. The lectures were always larger classes than high school, and the tutes and labs were about the same size, and mostly taught by later-year students who were paid less than high school teachers.

Facilities-wise, classrooms are classrooms, toilets are toilets, and offices are offices. I can't see any reason why university buildings should be more expensive than high school buildings, for a given number of students. Besides, high school capital outlay is less than 10% of total [0]. Universities can also have classes later in the day and at night, and so get more use out of the buildings.

Then there's equipment, particularly in the labs. The university had significantly more lab equipment than high school. However, there were also significantly more students using it. This wouldn't increase the cost of computer science, maths, business, etc, but might add to the costs of physics, chemistry, engineering. I'd need to see a real cost-breakdown to believe it would be much more expensive.

It should be possible to provide a similar level of education as current universities for less than $5k per year. That's disruption.

[0] https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=66 [1] https://nces.ed.gov/surveys/sass/tables/sass0708_035_s1s.asp

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

University is about signalling not education (for the most part). University administrators are a large part of the cost increase.

I don't think that's true, at least in STEM degrees. I learned a tremendous amount in university. I took classes to a 100 or 200 level in a bunch of subjects, which vastly increased my ability to reason about what I know and what I don't . My computer science degree required me to study topics like statistics, computational and applied mathematics (CAAM), and electrical/computer engineering (ELEC), and many more, alo…

Your CS degree sounds incredibly well rounded and rigorous. Mine was not like that at all - the math requirements were near non-existent.
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