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US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

nytimes.com

121–130 of 436 posts

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#121
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except, you know...software engineer, IT, DevOps, Infosec, WebDev, etc.

This is true on an individual level but not a macro level. Not everybody can be a developer or IT professional. The market just can't support that.

Then these people probably should not go to college in first place and instead become plumbers or car mechanics.

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've had 30 (40?) years of educators looking down on blue collar jobs and gearing everything towards pushing everyone to university because it's a golden ticket to a successful life. What most people didn't realize is that university was an attribute of successful people, not a prerequisite to be successful.* People who might have been totally successful in vocational school or a variety of other things have been di…

This. The idea that college somehow intrinsically causes you to earn more money is completely wrong and absurd. It completely conflates causation and correlation. Yet it's frequently trotted out as a justification for taking on student loan debt (as it was in this article). It's exactly the same as saying that people who own Ferraris make more money, so therefore the key to reducing poverty is increasing Ferrari owne…

This Ferrari point is especially apt because many of the commenters here are stating that no, their college professors and lecture experiences weren't better than YouTube offers, but look at all the great people I met and interacted with!

This perfectly fits your Ferrari fallacy: When you own a Ferrari, you're part of a highly-exclusive social club. "Well... No, my Ferrari didn't actually earn me more money, per se, but it let me hobnob with so-and-so, and look at me now! Totally worth the crippling debt!"

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sure feels like a bubble to me. I don't know how many friends I have with six figures of student loans and no career, but it's a lot. Considering that those loans don't even go away with bankruptcy, it's waaaay too many. I've noticed that younger students are starting to realize how much risk there is in something like that and shy away when my generation didn't. Maybe it's that I grew up in a "striving" middle cl…

I don't know, maybe it's different now, but my generation (went to school in the mid 90s) was not told to "just go to the best college no matter what": We were also advised to consider the cost and carefully choose a major so as to produce a positive expected ROI. Obviously nobody has a crystal ball and you can never tell when huge, industry-wrecking changes are coming, but it was well understood that majoring in Und…

In the 00's (and admittedly, an anecdote), we were told to "follow our passion" and weren't given much guidance on college affordability (community college for gen. ed. requirements vs in-state vs out-of-state / private). No emphasis on ROI or cost, at least at my school.

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#124
post #10

I don't know if it's a "bubble" (I am not qualified to say that), but I can't imagine that the current trend with student loans will continue. Looking at the numbers for someone entering college in 2017, it feels nearly predatory what a good portion of private and out of state colleges are charging. Even with financial aid, $30-40k a year for 4-5 years is insane. I was fortunate enough to have parents who made saving…

I definitely agree that rapidly rising education costs are a huge issue and need to be addressed. However, most (67%) undergraduate student loan amounts are for less than 20K[1]

At 6.8% interest and 10 year repayment that comes to about $2,761 per year, with interest that can be paid with pre-tax money. Yes, thats a hefty amount to many, but earnings with a college degree are still much more than enough to offset that burden.

Furthermore, 42% are for less than 10k.

The student loan debt crisis doesn't seem like all doom and gloom just yet.

[1] https://trends.collegeboard.org/student-aid/figures-tables/d...

Yes its from 2015, but I can't imagine the distribution has changed so much that it is irrelevant. According to Wikipedia, 39.9% owed less than 10k in 2012 [2].

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student_loan_default_in_the_Un...

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sure feels like a bubble to me. I don't know how many friends I have with six figures of student loans and no career, but it's a lot. Considering that those loans don't even go away with bankruptcy, it's waaaay too many. I've noticed that younger students are starting to realize how much risk there is in something like that and shy away when my generation didn't. Maybe it's that I grew up in a "striving" middle cl…

> Considering that those loans don't even go away with bankruptcy What? How does that work? Edited to add: this link suggests you can make it go away, but you need to do some extra work: https://studentloanhero.com/featured/student-loan-bankruptcy...

The rationale is that you can't take away an education the way you can repo a house or car. That and something about doctors borrowing a couple hundred K, then declaring bankruptcy to discharge it after graduation.

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The government isn't running the schools (most of the time), it's just underwriting an infinite amount of loans for students to take and go to private companies with. So if you're a University you know a) students think they should pay however much it costs to attend and b) they have an unlimited amount of funding to do so with. Thus ITT Tech.

Sure but we're talking about rights, not operations.

I'm not trying to comment on whether or not education should be a right, I'm just saying that believing it should be given our current system has had some negative repercussions.

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#128
$13.6 trillion is a ton of debt (literally?). At the same time, I think debt versus net worth is a more descriptive metric.

Back in 2008, household net worth (HNW) was about $56 trillion, so household debt was about a quarter of HNW. With HNW at about $93 trillion, reaching $14+ trillion in household debt doesn't sting as much.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/z1.pdf

At the same time, interest rates are still near historic lows, and may assets have appreciated because of this. I wouldn't be surprised to see real estate drop a bit as the Fed raises rates, which would take a chunk out of HNW.

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#129
post #14

Leave it to America to make children a pseudo-slave right when they enter adulthood.

It will be interesting to see if there is an uptake by employers of (cheaper?) employees who have gained knowledge/education via free/cheap online courses.

In my experience of a couple of CompSci online courses they appear to be as effective (if not more) in imparting knowledge and skills. When employers can identify this and start to treat completion of these these courses with the same level of importance as from a "real" university then maybe things will start to change.

The only thing I can see that will challenge this is the cultural indoctrination that seems to be part of the more esteemed universities. How much of the decision to employ somebody from a Harvard or MIT is knowing that the employee has been indoctrinated to think in a particular way?

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#130
I think it's going to hit housing hard (again), but probably not anytime soon. A lot of my friends have student loan debt that will never be paid off. They either can't get a job that pays enough to pay it off in a timely fashion or they choose not to grind for 5-8 years to pay it off. Instead, the plan is to do as little as possible for the next 25 years until it's forgiven, and try to keep as much cash off the books as possible so they can live a life worth living. I can't say I blame them. We can probably ride the debt train for the next decade or so, but at some point there will be too few buyers with capital because they spent the last two decades intentionally not building assets.
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