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Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

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Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#171

Post by mywittyname »

searine wrote: post #46
Scirra_Tom wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It was created as an amalgamation of post-war globalist trade deals. To deincentivise countries going to war with each other...

To make money. Deincentivising some kinds of war might have been a unexpected benefit, but it wasn't the motive.

Actually, it's original purpose was literally to prevent war between France and Germany.

> 'make war not only unthinkable but materially impossible'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Coal_and_Steel_Commun...

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#172

Post by volatilitish »

dragonwriter wrote: post #166
volatilitish wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand. The EU has been extremely ineffective at negotiating trade deals between the 28 EU countries, and non EU countries. We (UK) will be far more effective at negotiating our own trade deals with non EU countries. It's far simpler for a start.

> The EU has been extremely ineffective at negotiating trade deals between the 28 EU countries, and non EU countries. Exactly, which casts strong doubts on the this claim from your earlier post: "We will negotiate a trade deal with the EU as a whole." Because, you know, that is a trade deal between the 27 remaining EU countries and a non-(or soon to be non-)EU country, the exact thing you say that the EU isn't succes…

We buy more from the EU than we sell. We are the EUs biggest market. We buy 1,000,000 cars from Germany.

It is massively in the EU's interests to do a deal with us quickly.

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#173

Post by nickbauman »

volatilitish wrote: post #138
nickbauman wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly this. One of the illusions of control people have is that Britain now has a free hand to negotiate trade agreements with EU member states. The EU charter expressly forbids this. So Britain (or perhaps merely a rump England after Northern Ireland and Scotland EExit ) will be dealing with that same body but on unequal ground with other member states. Meet the new boss: Same as the old boss. I'm pretty sure you'…

No. We will now be free to negotiate trade deals with countries outside the EU (Which we currently are not able to do. The EU has been absolutely awful at trying to negotiate trade deals with other countries). We will negotiate a trade deal with the EU as a whole. Everyone in the UK knows those facts.

Well I suspect Britain has much more trade going on within the EU than it has anywhere else, which makes that sort of trade deal critically important compared to other trade deals...

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#175

Post by danudey »

volatilitish wrote: post #138
nickbauman wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly this. One of the illusions of control people have is that Britain now has a free hand to negotiate trade agreements with EU member states. The EU charter expressly forbids this. So Britain (or perhaps merely a rump England after Northern Ireland and Scotland EExit ) will be dealing with that same body but on unequal ground with other member states. Meet the new boss: Same as the old boss. I'm pretty sure you'…

No. We will now be free to negotiate trade deals with countries outside the EU (Which we currently are not able to do. The EU has been absolutely awful at trying to negotiate trade deals with other countries). We will negotiate a trade deal with the EU as a whole. Everyone in the UK knows those facts.

But on the other hand, as a Canadian whose government was in the process of negotiating a trade agreement with the EU, now we'll have to draw up two separate trade agreements, neither of which is as unbalanced in their favour as the original would have been.

That is to say, the EU without the UK has less leverage than before, and the UK without the EU has less leverage than before, so now neither the EU nor the UK has nearly as much bargaining power as they had combined.

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#176

Post by p4wnc6 »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #152
p4wnc6 wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it's unlikely for EU nations to significantly damage trading relationships with the UK. Germany, for example, exports a huge volume of cars to the UK and it comprises a significant portion of German GDP. Yes, there's volatility around exactly how such a trade deal will get worked out, but it's unrealistic to lump "access to European markets" into one big ball and assume that Brexit means that whole topic will be…

Real numbers here. http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/how-would-key-export-sec... Some key UK export sectors - especially finance - have a very low probability of being able to carry on as normal. The German car industry accounts for around 3% of GDP. Sales to the UK are less than 1% of German GDP. The UK financial industry accounts for around 10% of GDP. Sales to the EU are around 4% of UK GDP. As a rough guess est…

1% of GDP tied to a single trading partner and a single industry is a pretty big deal. Likewise, 4% of GDP in finance commerce to Germany is a big deal.

Seems like good evidence that the parties will want to ensure trading continues mostly the same as it has been. A big question is whether the rest of the EU would be able to block such arrangements. I don't think they will either want to or be able to.

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#177

Post by Animats »

masklinn wrote: post #68
Animats wrote: post #48

This may mean the breakup of the United Kingdom, too. Scotland and Northern Ireland mostly want to stay in Europe, and may choose to leave the UK, leaving Britain and Wales as the UK.[1] As a practical matter, it will become harder to do business into the EU from Britain. Visiting the EU from Britain may require a visa, and visiting Britain from the EU almost certainly will. This is really about Keeping Britain White…

> Scotland and Northern Ireland mostly want to stay in Europe NI is in a real bad situation though, they mostly want to stay in the EU but I don't think they can survive as an independent country[0], so they're stuck between their Unionist majority / Out minority on one side and the In majority / Nationalist minority on the other. Historical polls put the Union majority as comparable to the In one but United Ireland…

Scotland and Norther Ireland are about to be kicked off the EU farm subsidy gravy train.

"In 2015, 21,460 Scottish businesses received a CAP payment from EC funds. Of these, 18,875 businesses received £415 Million for Pillar 1 payments (SFPS 2014 and SBS 2014). £198 Million (EC +National money) was paid out on Pillar 2 (SRDP) schemes. The total amount received by each beneficiary is shown under three headings: Direct Aid schemes (i.e. Single Farm Payment and the Scottish Beef Scheme) and Rural Development (SRDP) schemes. There may also be a small number of payments made to a few businesses under Market (intervention) schemes."[1] Northern Ireland, £433m.[2]

The UK gets out of contributing to EU farm subsidies, but overall, subsidies were income for the UK. The "Leave" proponents claimed that the UK would offer similar subsidies after leaving the UK, but that's up to Parliament and the voters.

[1] http://www.gov.scot/Topics/farmingrural/Agriculture/grants/L... [2] http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-36312042

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#178

Post by hellothere789 »

vonnik wrote: post #14
volatilitish wrote: post #2

As a brit, it's strange to see how it's being spun here. The majority of people voted to leave the EU and to regain independence. There will be a little volatility until some facts about how that divorce happens, emerge. Long term, we now have control of our future. In terms of startups though, the EU is there to serve big businesses and powerful establishment. It's there to hinder startups and small businesses. If y…

Independence is a mirage, as is control. No individual nor country in the world is independent. We are all interdependent on one another, and ever more so as the movement of data, goods and people accelerates. The EU is a framework is facilitate that interdependence, and while it has many faults, it was created to prevent another world war and in that it has succeeded. Great Britain's future is very dependent on the…

Rather 1 day as a lion than 100 years as a sheep.

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#179

Post by XJOKOLAT »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #28
vonnik wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Independence is a mirage, as is control. No individual nor country in the world is independent. We are all interdependent on one another, and ever more so as the movement of data, goods and people accelerates. The EU is a framework is facilitate that interdependence, and while it has many faults, it was created to prevent another world war and in that it has succeeded. Great Britain's future is very dependent on the…

The EU will make the UK pay a price for Brexit, and rightly so, otherwise all member states would leave and still enjoy the free movement of goods and people. You make the EU sound like an abusive spouse. "Don't leave me or I'll hurt you!" Do you believe that if the UK leaves the EU, France and Germany will go to war? If not, I don't see how "created to prevent another world war" is relevant.

No one expects these things. And I can't see it for a few years. But ... if the EU members starts falling like domino's, Europe will look very different in a few years time. Tensions with Russia (Ukraine?), the rise of regional independent movements (Catalan/Spain), the continued rise of the far right, reactions against increased terrorism, etc. Anything can become a touch point. And it all seems far-fetched until it happens. Cost of EU: Billions. Cost of War: Everything.

And your "abusive" quote is way off also. It's not about abuse, it's about, as per any negotiation, either side will try to extract as much value as they possibly can. And if there is a power differential between the participants, the one with the upper hand absolutely will make the other party pay a price, and if accepted, it will be a fair price per the market.

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#180

Post by ZenoArrow »

twblalock wrote: post #148
volatilitish wrote: post #2

As a brit, it's strange to see how it's being spun here. The majority of people voted to leave the EU and to regain independence. There will be a little volatility until some facts about how that divorce happens, emerge. Long term, we now have control of our future. In terms of startups though, the EU is there to serve big businesses and powerful establishment. It's there to hinder startups and small businesses. If y…

> Long term, we now have control of our future. Not really. Your future is just as bound up with the future of Europe as it was before. The only real difference is that instead of negotiating with the EU as a member, you will have to negotiate as an outsider who has considerably less leverage, and who has recently pissed everyone off. And when you negotiate with non-EU countries, it will be even worse for you. As a m…

Regaining control was always about more than economic control. If you're in the EU, I hope you realise that you're currently being ruled by people you didn't elect, people in the pocket of big business, who have set out to concentrate power in the hands of a small selected group. I've heard some EU apologists claim that they don't believe in democracy, but some of us still do.
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