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Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

kalkis-research.com

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Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#171
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that 1 out of a 1000 person might buy a product/service worth millions which makes the marketing and acquisition costs worth it. You're looking at this through personal assumptions and ignoring all the data when this entire industry is completely data-driven and calculated in decisions.

Of course. I'm not saying that the advertisers are wasting their money. I'm saying that it seems that both the advertisers and the ads network could have made more money with a better targeting. At least in my case, they've wasted the cost of the impression and the potential gain from showing a more relevant ad in that space. And this is probably happening millions of times a day.

It is, but the cost of better targeting gets exponential more expensive.

Also people complain about targeting and tracking and delete cookies so there's that whole situation (which really only hurts them by giving them worse ads).

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#172

Ads won't die, the way they are served will change. You can look at Instagram who are serving ads natively in their feed and they perform well. Lots of other products are doing the same. Ad Blockers can only block traditional ads in web browsers, they won't affect the native ads in apps.

Not necessarily true, you could set up an adblocking app that changes the host file to block out those served up by ad networks. There are some that already do this, such as adguard, which has a program that blocks ads across your entire system, no matter if it's in a native app, or not.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#173
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google ads in search will always be valuable because you can advertise nail varnish to people who have just searched for "buy nail varnish". Google and Facebook both have the problem that their business model is predicated on having thousands of small advertisers bidding on ads. That's what they leverage to generate profit. In any market that's dominated by a single entity that smaller companies won't compete with fo…

>When the majority of people who want to buy nail varnish bypass search entirely and go straight to Amazon Do you even do this? My guess is the majority will never do what you're setting out to believe. Strictly speaking of Amazon, they don't even have the best prices these days.

I constantly do this, so does my wife. Even if we don't end up buying from Amazon, we'll read lots of reviews and often figure out what to buy from there. And for me, if I don't buy from Amazon, I usually end up going straight to eBay after that.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#175
post #160
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are not working for a company they are working for themselves, they place ads that drive traffic to gaming properties and receive a share of profits. They put their own money at risk for traffic acquisition, if they are wrong they will loose money. So basically they generated enough sales to receive a 100K profit share payment from partner network to them for a given week and spent 40K on ad inventory netting 60…

Okay, if that's true, that's very impressive: You're saying that these guys invest 2 million each and bring home 3.1 million each? I'd absolutely want to hear about this.

I know that the pay side is true because that's what I saw on our end, the cost side is based on what a partners claimed was true I have no hard data on it, except given age and lifestyle it looked believable. It's not like they would share their strategies. The whole point I was trying to make is that from this anecdotal experience I personally came to the conclusion that best people in this field are probably working for themselves and focus on some lucrative niches.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#176
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that 1 out of a 1000 person might buy a product/service worth millions which makes the marketing and acquisition costs worth it. You're looking at this through personal assumptions and ignoring all the data when this entire industry is completely data-driven and calculated in decisions.

Of course. I'm not saying that the advertisers are wasting their money. I'm saying that it seems that both the advertisers and the ads network could have made more money with a better targeting. At least in my case, they've wasted the cost of the impression and the potential gain from showing a more relevant ad in that space. And this is probably happening millions of times a day.

[deleted]

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#177

This is one of the worst articles I've ever read about adtech and is clearly written by someone who has never worked in it and knows nothing about it. It's all summed up by this at the end of the article: > Q: It’s all baseless speculation. > We base our research on subjects that are gaining traction in the overall news flow. We have found 94 articles about "ad fraud" over the last 5 years, only looking at influentia…

Anyone thinking advertising doesn't work should ...

But that's not at all what he's saying -- he's saying the market for it saturated, and its efficiency has crested.

It's clear it's going to stay because it's an integral part of the economy.

Nor is he saying that it's "going away." Or anything remotely close to that.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#178
I just disabled our ad campaign on one of the online ad platforms mentioned in this article. We market to tech audience who are probably 90% covered with adblock. We're seeing some odd page paths from users who visit our sites through paid clicks. Very different from qualified lead paths.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#179

"Facebook on the other hand, has a better control of who is actually seeing its ads, and will benefit from the turmoil by gaining market share." Did they pay you to write this? Google ads in search will always be valuable because you can advertise nail varnish to people who have just searched for "buy nail varnish". This is also about the millionth post I've read which assumes that companies simply throw money at adv…

This article may be hype, but the Google Adwords monopoly is very real and I wish it died. I run a SaaS startup (PhantomJsCloud) and tried adwords. No advertising competition, and targeted very specific actionable search queries. Google charges upward of $5.00/click. I can understand they want to cut spammers saturating every random search query, but how am I going to get a positive RoI on that kind of cost?

Have you done the calculation on conversion rate you would need at your current SAAS subscription cost to find out how much you could afford to pay per click?

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#180

This is one of the worst articles I've ever read about adtech and is clearly written by someone who has never worked in it and knows nothing about it. It's all summed up by this at the end of the article: > Q: It’s all baseless speculation. > We base our research on subjects that are gaining traction in the overall news flow. We have found 94 articles about "ad fraud" over the last 5 years, only looking at influentia…

Anyone thinking advertising doesn't work should ... But that's not at all what he's saying -- he's saying the market for it saturated, and its efficiency has crested. It's clear it's going to stay because it's an integral part of the economy. Nor is he saying that it's "going away." Or anything remotely close to that.

That last paragraph are my comments on the general tone of the post and this HN thread. That's why it starts with "anyone".

Regarding the article though:

> online advertising efficiency has been decreasing for years

> Alphabet/Google, who has 90% of its revenue coming from online advertising, will see its business scale back to the levels of 2010-2011, while its share price will crash to the $200-$250 area

> Awareness for fraud and the inefficiency of online ads grows past the point of no return over the next 2 years. The whole sector crashes as clients reduce spending and demand better reporting and transparency.

This is all very poor conjecture derived from reading a few dozen "news" articles. None of this is or will be true based on the facts and progress of the industry today.

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