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USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

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Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#161
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> growers expanded plantings of soybeans A year ago China stopped buying soybeans from the US is seems ("China Bought $12.6 Billion in U.S. Soybeans Last Year. Now, It’s $0." - https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/business/china-soybean-sa... ), was that resumed, or who are all these new soybeans going to? Is it all for national use instead of export?

When China buys from someone else (Brazil - nobody else has significant soy bean surplus) that means whoever was buying from that someone else now needs to go to the US. The US also uses a lot of soy beans internally. Prices are down, but farmers are still selling soybeans and with careful management are making money.

some other options than buying american:

- tap into a reserve, like buying from china itself - buy from somebody else who grows their industry - consume less and produce less of the downstream item - swap to an alternative input, eg. canola

its a national security issue to take dependencies on imports to or exports from america now. if a nation does, it will be part of trade negotiation, where the benefit from the US outweighs the liability.

If you havent watched the Carney Davos speech, its worth a watch or a rewatch - this is how the world is thinking about US trade. Significantly risky. I think the US soy price still has room to go down, as other countries take over the production, and have favoured nation agreements with each other

idk if its really a bif deal though, farmers grow soy because its good for their fields, and getting to sell it is an extra bonus. if a farmer is dependent on selling the soy, they probably arent doing so well overall

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#162
post #12
post #2

It will only get worse for the next generation as the aquafers are continuing to be depleted.

we live in a closed greenhouse system, the water just doesn't just disappear and most of the Earth is covered in it. Plenty of countries completely rely on desalination already, I think we'll be fine. I'm much more concerned about everyone becoming a moron from using AI. edit: cloud seeding too.

huh?

we live in an open system at any scale except the whole universe and even that is gaining energy

the earth is slowly losing both hydrogen and oxygen, and has tons of energy coming in from the sun

into the scale of a field, or a state or a country or a continent, theres very obvious flows of the water cycle introducing water via rain/snow, and removing it via evaporation, seepage, and rivers.

the only closed system is if you make one of those wine fermenter biospheres, and even there its open to energy coming in via light

the second law will keep applying

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#163

If you enjoy pistachios, eat eat them this year, because you wont see them next year. California produces 70% of global supply and an indian summer this year ruined the crop. Many farmers aren't even planning to harvest. 20% of the remaining global supply comes from Iran, which has its own issues of drought and war.

my costco pistachios were grown in turkiye?

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#164
post #28

This is about China. The timing of this article coming out during the Trump-China summit is no accident. The article beat around the bush (pun intended) that the real issue here is that China stopped buying (or seriously cut back) US agricultural products (particularly soy) because of tariffs imposed on China last year that got to over 100% at one point. China now buys significantly more soy from Argentina instead. T…

The big reason china reduced its purchases of soy wasnt the tariffs though.

the prior high purchases were to refill their reserve after covid lockdowns broke supply changes. now its about full again, so they only need the steady state supply

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#165
post #163

If you enjoy pistachios, eat eat them this year, because you wont see them next year. California produces 70% of global supply and an indian summer this year ruined the crop. Many farmers aren't even planning to harvest. 20% of the remaining global supply comes from Iran, which has its own issues of drought and war.

my costco pistachios were grown in turkiye?

That is the remaining 10%

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#166

Title claims "due to plains drought" but the article text largely attributes this to increased planting of soy for its lower fertilizer requirements (related to Strait of Hormuz).

Has the USA's potash supply been reduced due to strained relations with Canada? They are our top supplier, by far.

Not that I've noticed looking at the cargo trains going by, but definitely a lot more bitumen tankers that's for sure.

Though potash is one part of three (Nitrogen (One person's perspective living in Southern Alberta)

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#167

Title claims "due to plains drought" but the article text largely attributes this to increased planting of soy for its lower fertilizer requirements (related to Strait of Hormuz).

Agreed. But there's a very weird underlying sentiment on HN where many people seem to directly or indirectly jump whenever they can to downplay the existence of climate change. Sometimes, they are emboldened by articles like this which intentionally use misleading headlines. You're completely right, though, that in this instance, soy beans were mostly focused on because of consumer trends and less fertilizer need. Wh…

There are a number of people who are motivated to deny or downplay climate change, whether they have a financial stake or just because they've made it part of their personality.

Conveniently for them, it's very difficult to attribute any specific weather event to climate change in isolation.

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are wrong and the drought attribution is correct: Winter wheat is the dominant variety in the U.S. and is (and is projected to be further) down due to drought. "a severe drought in the U.S. Plains has curbed production of hard red winter wheat, the largest variety grown in the U.S... The USDA projected U.S. wheat production in the 2026/27 season at 1.561 billion bushels, down from 1.985 billion in 2025/26, as a s…

> Winter wheat is the dominant variety in the U.S. and is (and is projected to be further) down due to drought. Both drought and the fertilizer shortage (which, as the article notes, was too late to effect planting decisions but DID impact the costs, and thereby decisions on the applied quantities, of nutrients for the winter wheat crop this year) are impacting winter wheat yields.

[deleted]

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Winter wheat is the dominant variety in the U.S. and is (and is projected to be further) down due to drought. Both drought and the fertilizer shortage (which, as the article notes, was too late to effect planting decisions but DID impact the costs, and thereby decisions on the applied quantities, of nutrients for the winter wheat crop this year) are impacting winter wheat yields.

Yes, the article points that out, too.

[deleted]

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#170
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Data centers don't use much water on the scale of things. The numbers look big in isolation, but most people have no idea how much water a country really needs and isolating the numbers makes data centers look bad.

But aren't they trying to build data centers outside of smaller localities, where they do exist somewhat in isolation? Water cannot just be transported thousands of miles, water itself exists in isolated pockets. Straining the water resources of towns is a problem! You can't just say "the US is big so if you look at the maximum possible widest numbers, it looks small". You have to look at the actual human impact. I t…

> Straining the water resources of towns is a problem!

Citation needed.

I'm sure you can find a few outlier cases, but in general speaking terms datacenters - AI or not - are not even a rounding error on any local water source so far.

It's just not a thing. It's made up for social media rage bait.

> I think data centers look bad because of the human impacts that I've seen

What human impact is this, precisely speaking? Outside of the (again) few outlier cases, datacenters are basically warehouses you didn't even know existed until you were told to be mad about them. Plenty of friends who know I'm in the space have recently asked me about this, not having a clue they've been living within a mile of a facility for the past decade.

Facilities with co-located power plants are not datacenters. Those are power plants with a datacenter attached to the side of it. The power plant would be the concern. Even then, these are exceedingly rare and a symptom of a generation or two of American's deciding not to invest in energy infrastructure.

Power usage is a concern due to the lack of investment in generation or transmission infrastructure in this country the entire time all HN members have been alive - along with the outsourcing of effectively all US industrial capacity to third world nations. Anything else is effectively amped up rage bait without a grounding in reality.

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