Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

agweb.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

81–90 of 187 posts

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#81

Post by bluGill »

cogman10 wrote: post #65
embedding-shape wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I expect other nations are still consuming US soybeans But who? Compared to 2024, 2025 had almost half soybean exports it seems ( https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/commodities/soybeans ), I'm guessing most of the difference was China basically stopped buying soybeans. But it's a huge difference, yet production seems to be ramping up? I don't understand why they'd do that when the exports are going down?

I don't think it's ramping up [1]. Production is pretty static. And the chart you linked appears that exports for non-china countries is basically static. Were I to guess what's going on, but we'll see when the 2026 data comes in, is that soy farmers are likely storing a good portion of their bean harvest. Some will still have contracts that keep them farming. I suspect that many have switched over to other crops. [1…

> I suspect that many have switched over to other crops.

On the margins. However most farmers consider their soil health and long term plans. All good farmers (especially the mega corps) will intentionally plant most crops not based on what they expect out of the market next year, but what their soil needs. Most fields will not produce well if you don't consider what was grown on it last year and in turn what you want to produce next year. A few fields (millions of acres worth, but still only a few) there are options and those will adjust, but for the vast majority you have to follow a long term plan or your soil will fail and bankrupt you long term. Even the fields that do have options, it is just this year, and next they will have to return to a long term plan with no option. That where I live you have go [corn, corn, soybeans] or [corn, soybeans, corn], but [corn, corn, corn] is not an option. (I'm not aware of anyone doing two years of soybeans but maybe it happens)

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#83

Post by wholinator2 »

bluGill wrote: post #52
jeffbee wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Largely not. Data center people aren't idiots. They site their projects in places with water and power, or if not power then at least gas. I don't think you'd be able to point out a project that actually exists and is competing for a scarce local water resource.

Data centers don't use much water on the scale of things. The numbers look big in isolation, but most people have no idea how much water a country really needs and isolating the numbers makes data centers look bad.

But aren't they trying to build data centers outside of smaller localities, where they do exist somewhat in isolation? Water cannot just be transported thousands of miles, water itself exists in isolated pockets. Straining the water resources of towns is a problem! You can't just say "the US is big so if you look at the maximum possible widest numbers, it looks small". You have to look at the actual human impact. I think data centers look bad because of the human impacts that I've seen, not some highly abstracted spreadsheet.

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#84

Post by estebank »

bluGill wrote: post #62
9rx wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When sold for humans it is called edamame. Edamame is limited to special varieties that are harvested before ripening, which isn't the soybeans those supplanting wheat will be growing. You're probably thinking of tofu, natto, or something in that vein.

Most of those things don't look like soy beans. (then again almost nobody is eating unprocessed wheat either)

Steak doesn't look like a cow either.

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#85

Post by mikey_p »

giantg2 wrote: post #2

It will only get worse for the next generation as the aquafers are continuing to be depleted.

Is anyone actually irrigating wheat??

Edit: I'm being downvoted because someone found a source that says 3% of winter wheat in Montana is irrigated.

My point still stands, while yes some percentage of wheat is irrigated it is extremely uncommon.

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#86

Post by gbear605 »

Brybry wrote: post #77
eightysixfour wrote: post #13

Western hay prices are as much as double what they were last year for feed: https://www.reddit.com/r/homestead/comments/1ta64d0/breaking...

I'd take that source with a grain of salt. The website's domain was created 3 months ago (site doesn't even have any entries in the wayback machine) and supposedly pulls from USDA AMS data but when I looked at reports[1][2] I didn't see double prices compared to last year. Some prices even looked lower? But it was hard to make comparisons because of report structure and data disparity. [1] CA Hay: https://mymarketnew…

From the hay prices I’ve seen recently as a consumer, they’re up by like 20-30%, but not double.

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#87

Post by wholinator2 »

fullstop wrote: post #55
bluGill wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are different grades with different properties. However very few are consumed by humans. When sold for humans it is called edamame. The most common use is crush the beans, and collect the oil feeding the rest to pigs. If you read the ingredients at the grocery store, soy bean oil comes up a lot. Soy bean oil is also often used in diesel engines after processing.

My wife couldn't understand why I didn't care for edamame. After 40+ years on this planet I finally figured out that I really struggle to digest soy protein. They sneak that stuff in everywhere, but I do my best to avoid it.

Yes, the modern food landscape is a horrific catastrophe for anyone with serious dietary restrictions. It's actually disgusting how many things i used to eat have gone the way of soy/sorbitol and completely fucked their product just to pinch pennies. It happens to something i like about 3 or 4 times a year. They sneak those things in and i am unsuspectingly poisoned for weeks. It's one of the things about the modern world i despise the most. I'd trade the modern food choice for that of the 1800s just to be able to eat any of it. And the sysco-ification of all local restaurants is just as bad if not worse. Sysco doesn't give a Fuck about the quality, they'll put as much filler and fake shit as they can cram in and then the restaurants i can trust grows smaller and smaller every year. I'd have to be rich to be able to eat out! It didn't used to be like this >:(

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#88

Post by colechristensen »

bluGill wrote: post #72
colechristensen wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the nitrogen fertilizer almost all of which is manufactured from methane + air.

Pedantically, most of it is manufactured by biological processes in the soil. Soy Beans are really good at this which is why it is planted so much (the food value is secondary, but enough to give it the edge over alternatives) For supplemental fertilizer you buy though you are correct.

[flagged]

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#89

Post by cogman10 »

bluGill wrote: post #81
cogman10 wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it's ramping up [1]. Production is pretty static. And the chart you linked appears that exports for non-china countries is basically static. Were I to guess what's going on, but we'll see when the 2026 data comes in, is that soy farmers are likely storing a good portion of their bean harvest. Some will still have contracts that keep them farming. I suspect that many have switched over to other crops. [1…

> I suspect that many have switched over to other crops. On the margins. However most farmers consider their soil health and long term plans. All good farmers (especially the mega corps) will intentionally plant most crops not based on what they expect out of the market next year, but what their soil needs. Most fields will not produce well if you don't consider what was grown on it last year and in turn what you wan…

> Most fields will not produce well if you don't consider what was grown on it last year and in turn what you want to produce next year.

I've never worked at a megacorp farm, but my observation is that the majority of farmers aren't thinking like this. Granted it might be different because the crops around me which are most commonly grown are wheat, barley, and hay. IDK the effects of soybeans/corn on soil and it's possible they have a much more pronounced effect. For wheat, barley, hay, most the farmers I know will plant it YoY and use fertilizer to counteract soil deficiencies.

Crop rotation, AFAIK, is mostly employed to reduce the need for fertilizer.

It definitely is a problem because farmers tend to over-fertilize which can cause nasty problems the runoff water.

I also expect this will likely become something a lot more farmers start to practice as fertilizer prices spike.

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#90

Post by mikey_p »

jmyeet wrote: post #76
CGMthrowaway wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IDK how many people in China are laser focused on agweb.com for their geopolitical negotiations. The data comes from USDA's WASDE report which is released every month, between the 8th and 12th. There is no "timing," and people were talking about the expect wheat harvest this season for weeks ahead of Tue's report anyway

Chinese citizens aren't the target audience. The US administration is. This article is basically saying "please, Mr President, get China to buy more of our agricultural goods". The "when" of media coverage is just as important as the "what" and the "when" here is while the president is currently in China. If you want to think that's irrelevant, that's a choice I guess.

I'm 45, grew up on a farm and I have childhood memories of my dad looking forward to the crop reports because those would have such an enormous effect on market prices.

If this was meant to manipulate Trump into specific behavior, it is a masterful long play seeing as how this report is published in roughly the same way for over 50 years.

Post reply on HN