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The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

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Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#161
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are points in history where the productivity increases were more equitably spread, and we still got lasers, microwaves, MRI, mRNA, microchips, the internet, etc, etc, from national funding no less.

People are paid according to the value they produce - equity has nothing to do with it.

This is painfully naive. People are paid by the value they produce minus the maximum extraction ownership can get.

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#162

This is likely the worst issue humanity will be facing over the next 50 years, even more than climate change. An increasingly old demographic will sabatoge the future of humanity as they drain enormous resources and abuse democratic processes to reroute resources to their preservation of life over young people and familes. Young people and families will choke to death under the strain of elders who demand unlimited s…

>This is likely the worst issue humanity will be facing over the next 50 years, even more than climate change.

Tangent, I know, but the climate change horizon is very long, much longer than 50 years. For example, a common projection is that the sea level will rise by almost one meter by 2100. This is already an unpleasant forecast. But it will continue to rise: under a 2 C warming scenario, sea levels reach (median prediction) 2.7 meters above the 2000 levels in 2300, which would be catastrophic. 2300 may seem far away, but it will come.

The current estimate is that we need to eliminate emissions this century and we will thereafter still need to do mitigation and removal to undo the damage, or extant coastal settlements will be destroyed. It is a very long process. See e.g.:

https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1584

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#163

While I mostly agree... Venice was run by very old men. It was common for the Doge to be in their 80s. Meanwhile, many of their neighbors had kings who were very young, sometimes teenage boys. Venice was the longest lasting, most stable state in Europe.

We're talking about democratic republics. How does the one map to the other?

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#164
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Term limits encourage the development of robust laws, systems and institutions which provide a far more stable basis for running a society than having power structures that rely on the brilliance of an individual or individuals. Without terms limits or the like (and there are countless examples not just in history but currently around the world), individuals in power are motivated mostly to preserve that power and ha…

With term limits individuals in power are motivated to pass laws that help them find their next job.

There are just too many examples of political leaders who achieved beneficial results initially but as their reign extended into decades, things went sour. Putin, Mugabe, Erdogan, Ferdinand Marcos, Mubarak, Hugo Chavez, Castro and even the likes of Gaddafi are commonly viewed as having improved conditions for the citizens initially but eventually left a legacy of degraded legal systems, weak civil services, rotten institutions in general, weakened or non-existent independent media and busted economies. It just doesn't work in practice which why nearly all countries have switched to term-limits.

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#165
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With term limits individuals in power are motivated to pass laws that help them find their next job.

There are just too many examples of political leaders who achieved beneficial results initially but as their reign extended into decades, things went sour. Putin, Mugabe, Erdogan, Ferdinand Marcos, Mubarak, Hugo Chavez, Castro and even the likes of Gaddafi are commonly viewed as having improved conditions for the citizens initially but eventually left a legacy of degraded legal systems, weak civil services, rotten in…

These are all examples of executives. I agree that term limits on executives are necessary. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48049876 I think they're harmful for legislators.

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Term limits would fix it This is really obviously not true. The Democrats' preferred candidate for Maine's US Senate seat, Janet Mills, was 78 years old. She had never served in congress. (she dropped out of the primary when her impending loss became obvious)

> she dropped out of the primary when her impending loss became obvious That is how voting and elections is supposed to work, not by saying people of a certain age, color, race or creed can't hold office because young people today are bigoted and feel they deserve more than all generations that ever preceded them throughout all of history.

I'd say party leadership endorsing a 78 year old candidate for US Senate is not how voting and elections ought to work - I'd say it's a pretty big problem. You're welcome to agree or disagree with that, but more relevant to the context of this comment thread, it is not a problem that would be solved by congressional term limits.

> young people today are bigoted and feel they deserve more than all generations that ever preceded them throughout all of history.

Each generation doing materially better than the previous one used to be a widely agreed upon goal in the United States. Perhaps not really relevant to this comment thread.

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Go look at the demographics of the last election and then tell me which groups shouldn't be allowed to vote.

[flagged]

I think that's exactly what OP meant? While Trump's policies take the long term gerontocratic/anarcho-capitalist dynamics strangling of our society and crank them to 11, a lot of younger people ended up buying into his "burn it all down" messaging imagining it would result in some principled evenly-applied reform that might get the boot off their own necks. And that level of foolishness seems straight from the naive rashness of youth.

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#168
post #162

This is likely the worst issue humanity will be facing over the next 50 years, even more than climate change. An increasingly old demographic will sabatoge the future of humanity as they drain enormous resources and abuse democratic processes to reroute resources to their preservation of life over young people and familes. Young people and families will choke to death under the strain of elders who demand unlimited s…

>This is likely the worst issue humanity will be facing over the next 50 years, even more than climate change. Tangent, I know, but the climate change horizon is very long, much longer than 50 years. For example, a common projection is that the sea level will rise by almost one meter by 2100. This is already an unpleasant forecast. But it will continue to rise: under a 2 C warming scenario, sea levels reach (median p…

Do you know what the timelines are for demographic collapse? Similar and much worse, who will need the coastal cities if our trends continue. AND they have NO way have being undone AT ALL after the previous hundred years of trends set in.

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#169

While I mostly agree... Venice was run by very old men. It was common for the Doge to be in their 80s. Meanwhile, many of their neighbors had kings who were very young, sometimes teenage boys. Venice was the longest lasting, most stable state in Europe.

That might have as much to do with their insane system for choosing a Doge, which many historians think did a lot to force compromise and reduce corruption.

They took the full council, selected a random subset, had that group choose another group from the full council by voting, then repeat that random selection followed by voting another few times ending with a final group who voted to select a Doge.

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well the problem is much more pronounced as people live longer and longer. I think this will all come to a head soon. Social security, for one, is going to exceedingly get strained as people draw on it for longer. Being alive also doesn’t mean you’re competent.

Problem is, Social Security will be solvent until 2037 at current prediction which means it goes insolvent when youngest boomer is 73. So basically most of them will get all their Social Security, die and leave Gen X to get fucked.

Fortunately insolvency in this scenario mean that they will only be able to afford to pay around 3/4 of promised benefits.

Closing that budget gap is a problem that will need to be dealt with, but it's not impossible to fix and it's a fairly long way away. There are a lot of proposals going around for how to fix it and those will become more politically palatable as it gets closer.

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