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UAE to leave OPEC

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#161

Post by Cyph0n »

dmix wrote: post #92
energy123 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oman benefits significantly more from the war in Iran than the UAE, but is the most favorable country towards Iran in the GCC. See the visual here: https://archive.is/Xt3gd Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been urging the US to bomb Iran since 2015 for their own non-oil reasons. They see political Islamism as a strategic and domestic threat. That's why they had Qatar under a blockade for a number of years. Iran is their…

UAE's major issue with Saudis is their quiet support for Islamism as well. They know countries like Iran exploit for it like a wildcard which always backfires and destabilizes the region, which is bad for business.

No. The UAE’s major issue is that KSA has finally awoken from its deep nonsensical slumber (I can elaborate further if there is interest).

This is a battle of economies and regional influence.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#162

Post by bluGill »

Cyph0n wrote: post #150
lotsofpulp wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan I have read this headline dozens of times in the previous 30 years.

Has the GCC been in an existential state of panic to the point where they’re seriously questioning their relationship with the US any time in the past 30 years?

Someone has at several different points. It isn't always the same someone, but someone.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#163

Post by Havoc »

eightysixfour wrote: post #156
Havoc wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan so this doesn’t read like anything US aligned to me. If anything it reads like the opposite to me - a move away from traditional opec petrodollar system

> UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan That is just UAE pressure to make sure they get their dollar swap deal: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-currenc...

Indeed it’s leverage but at same time they only need the swap because all is not well in petrodollar land.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#164

Post by elictronic »

Havoc wrote: post #120
netdur wrote: post #109

Geopolic: A US-aligned Gulf state walking away from a Saudi/Russia-led bloc in the middle of a war, after deciding the bloc didn’t really have its back Economic: it weakens OPEC’s pricing power in a way you might not see right away if Hormuz is closed, but it could really change the supply picture once things reopen

UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan so this doesn’t read like anything US aligned to me. If anything it reads like the opposite to me - a move away from traditional opec petrodollar system

Im not concerned with them selling with the yuan as China regularly screws around with its currency. The bigger issue is and other currencies which reduces the US impact.

On the backside I’m sure there will be lots of fun back door deals around all those interceptors and future anti drone technologies. Today though the US has been the impetus of a lot of the current issues.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#165

Post by ericmay »

nimbius wrote: post #128
Havoc wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan so this doesn’t read like anything US aligned to me. If anything it reads like the opposite to me - a move away from traditional opec petrodollar system

exactly. this sounds like a third path where the UAE charts its own course, and that course increasingly looks paved in Yuan. OPEC cartel membership didnt gain it access to Hormuz, and the US petrodollar promise to protect UAE states from aggression in exchange for trade in USD could not be upheld.

> the US petrodollar promise to protect UAE states from aggression in exchange for trade in USD could not be upheld

Well the war is still ongoing, and Iran's regime is already feeling the pain of the blockade [1]. Pricing oil in Yuan because, I guess, the US is somehow not protecting the UAE doesn't make sense because China won't be there to protect them either. The US can just say, well fine you can sell your oil in Yuan. But we'll just blockade the Straight and seize oil priced in Yuan or something. Who exactly does the UAE need protection from? Iran? China's ally?

I swear I read this same story over and over again. There's always just an accusation "thing happened, here's how the US is now in a state of being screwed" and there's just never any follow-up or perhaps imagination that the US could just do something too. Hypersonic missiles? US Navy is done for, no possible counter. Iran has drones? Boom. US is done for no way they can spend Patriot missile money on $30,000 Iranian drones. Nope, nothing anyone can do at all. Iran "closes the Straight", well the US can't do anything. Now they are "embarrassed" and "slammed".

> OPEC cartel membership didnt gain it access to Hormuz

What does this mean?

[1] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-is-flooded-with-s...

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#167

Post by Cyph0n »

bluGill wrote: post #162
Cyph0n wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has the GCC been in an existential state of panic to the point where they’re seriously questioning their relationship with the US any time in the past 30 years?

Someone has at several different points. It isn't always the same someone, but someone.

Which country?

Kuwait was “saved” by the US. The Iraq invasion was approved by the GCC, partly as payback for Kuwait, and anyways Iraq is not part of the GCC. The Qatar blockade was self-inflicted (and extremely stupid).

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#168

Post by nradov »

jmyeet wrote: post #103
woodruffw wrote: post #53

Serious question: what is OPEC’s influence in 2026? Most analyses I’ve read suggest that it’s essentially a defunct organization and has been since the 1980s, due to (1) a lack of geopolitical agreement between members, and (2) a lack of punishment/compensatory mechanisms for when individual members cheat on their commitments.

It's a good question. Let me answer the question this way: OPEC is the biggest single factor for the inflation shock of 2020 to 2022 yet weirdly hardly anybody talks about it. Let's rewind to March 2020 and the start of the pandemic. For a very brief period, April oil futures went negative . Technically, this was an extreme contango market. Oil producers were running out of places to store oil and nobody was buying.…

OPEC doesn't adjust production. They set production targets, and then most of the members cheat. For geological reasons it's not even really possible to significantly reducing production on many oil wells without damaging them. Saudi Arabia generally has more freedom to throttle production up or down than other OPEC members.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#169

Post by joshuaheard »

seydor wrote: post #89
joshuaheard wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OPEC is a cartel of Arab oil-producing countries, including UAE. They limit production in order to keep the world oil price artificially high. UAE is pulling out of the cartel, presumably so it can bypass the restrictions and cash in on the high prices caused by the Iranian conflict. AFAIK this is the first time a country has pulled out of OPEC, and hopefully, it will lead to its demise.

> its demise. OPEC or UAE?

OPEC

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#170

Post by bediger4000 »

jmyeet wrote: post #103
woodruffw wrote: post #53

Serious question: what is OPEC’s influence in 2026? Most analyses I’ve read suggest that it’s essentially a defunct organization and has been since the 1980s, due to (1) a lack of geopolitical agreement between members, and (2) a lack of punishment/compensatory mechanisms for when individual members cheat on their commitments.

It's a good question. Let me answer the question this way: OPEC is the biggest single factor for the inflation shock of 2020 to 2022 yet weirdly hardly anybody talks about it. Let's rewind to March 2020 and the start of the pandemic. For a very brief period, April oil futures went negative . Technically, this was an extreme contango market. Oil producers were running out of places to store oil and nobody was buying.…

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