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US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

cnn.com

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Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#161

Post by jcgrillo »

selcuka wrote: post #145
notepad0x90 wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

did he leak the information, or just speculate on it? is it leaking classified info when pentagon officials order lots of pizza and thus inform the world that a military operation is being planned?

"A military operation is being planned" is very different from "Maduro will be kidnapped in the next x hours". "Pentagon planning a military operation" is not exactly classified information as it is safe to assume that Pentagon is always planning a military operation.

Yes, it seems in this case an adversary who was paying attention could have learned something very, very valuable.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#162

Post by danny_codes »

mcmcmc wrote: post #152
doom2 wrote: post #127

I thought prodiction markets benefit from insider knowledge. Isn't the whole point that insiders make bets, thereby surfacing knowledge and allowing for more accurate forecasts? So wouldn't we want more military service members making bets? In this case, any potential military target of the US would really want this insider info.

Maybe we just don’t want prediction markets.

You spelled gambling platform wrong. This attempt to rename gambling websites is infuriating. I hope these people get meaningful prison time

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#163

Post by bawolff »

herewulf wrote: post #79
int32_64 wrote: post #67

It seems like it would be highly demoralizing to US soldiers that they are prosecuted for betting on the outcomes of the battles they are risking their lives for but those insider trading commanding them aren't.

Imagine doing an easy tour in your air conditioned Kuwaiti logistics office and then getting blown to bits by a ballistic missile because no one bothered to tell you about the war that was being initiated which would cause such missiles in retaliation. Yeah, that's demoralizing too.

I mean, surely everyone in the middle east knew a war was on the horizon. Obviously not the exact plan or day, but it wasn't a secret that usa was gearing up for a war.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#164

Post by danny_codes »

anonymous344 wrote: post #157

so they catched this guy, yet pelosi and 300 others ate making millions every month, and nothing.. really people who has woken up, there is no words for this, yet the 80% are still asleep

Since citizens united it’s legal to pay unlimited amounts for political propaganda (lying to the public).

Obama called this out explicitly after the ruling and his analysis has been more or less accurate.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#165

Post by bawolff »

doom2 wrote: post #127

I thought prodiction markets benefit from insider knowledge. Isn't the whole point that insiders make bets, thereby surfacing knowledge and allowing for more accurate forecasts? So wouldn't we want more military service members making bets? In this case, any potential military target of the US would really want this insider info.

> So wouldn't we want more military service members making bets

Who is the "we" in this sentence?

Yes, insider knowledge makes the prediction market more accurate (albeit at the cost of being less "fair"). However US government doesn't want prediction markets to accurately predict the timing of their secret military operations. Hence the arrest.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#166

Post by morsch »

jcgrillo wrote: post #87
sigmar wrote: post #42

Since this is relevant to many HN comments, copy-pasted the charges from the pdf indictment in the linked page: Count 1 - Unlawful Use of Confidential Government Information for Personal Gain Count 2 - Theft of Nonpublic Government Information Count 3 - Commodities Fraud Count 4 - Wire Fraud Count 5 - Engaging in a Monetary Transaction in Property Derived from Specified Unlawful Activity

It's interesting they don't think they can get him for leaking classified information. To me that seems like the biggest issue--I mean sure, it's bad he made money on it, but it would have been really bad if he'd gotten someone killed by blabbing to the internet.

Well, a lot of people got killed this way, too.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#167

Post by rcbdev »

int32_64 wrote: post #102
herewulf wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine doing an easy tour in your air conditioned Kuwaiti logistics office and then getting blown to bits by a ballistic missile because no one bothered to tell you about the war that was being initiated which would cause such missiles in retaliation. Yeah, that's demoralizing too.

There will be derivative contracts of prediction markets to predict if an insider is indicted for betting on a specific prediction. And those prediction markets will have derivative markets to predict if an insider in the prosecutor's office bet on that contract. And those prediction markets will have derivative markets to predict if a special prosecutor will prosecute the other prosecutor. And those prediction marke…

> derivative markets will exist up to the divine wrath of god

We already bet on the weather.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#168

Post by JumpCrisscross »

sigmar wrote: post #42

Since this is relevant to many HN comments, copy-pasted the charges from the pdf indictment in the linked page: Count 1 - Unlawful Use of Confidential Government Information for Personal Gain Count 2 - Theft of Nonpublic Government Information Count 3 - Commodities Fraud Count 4 - Wire Fraud Count 5 - Engaging in a Monetary Transaction in Property Derived from Specified Unlawful Activity

Why would this be civilian versus the business of a JAG?

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#169

Post by JumpCrisscross »

int32_64 wrote: post #67

It seems like it would be highly demoralizing to US soldiers that they are prosecuted for betting on the outcomes of the battles they are risking their lives for but those insider trading commanding them aren't.

> would be highly demoralizing

Those people should quit. Sour grapes isn’t an excuse for putting others’ lives at risk.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#170

Post by JumpCrisscross »

Aurornis wrote: post #75
ElProlactin wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, if people in Congress, the Supreme Court, the administration, etc. don't have to conceal their "activities", why should this guy? He wasn't a "little guy" but apparently his only mistake was not being high enough.

I don’t know why people are trying to defend this guy. We should be upset when anyone tries to use confidential information for personal gain. It’s also a security risk if anyone is incentivized to place bets based on confidential info. I know you’re trying to make a separate point about Congress, but it’s silly to try to turn this into a class warfare thing. Congress didn’t even have this information at the time.

> don’t know why people are trying to defend this guy

It’s a hot take. It’s also a one off. You don’t have to strategize building the case law to then enable further investigations and prosecutions, a process which takes year and is beyond the internet’s attention span. (Silver lining: these takes are also mostly meaningless. Gears will grind on.)

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