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SpaceX files to go public

nytimes.com

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Re: SpaceX files to go public

#161

Post by pnw »

projektfu wrote: post #133
indoordin0saur wrote: post #113

SpaceX has reduced the cost of getting a ton of mass into orbit by a factor of 10 and with their new system (Starship) it's poised further reduce that to 100x. They launch, land and re-use their rockets so often now that what was considered impossible 15 years ago is now routine. They currently put more things into space than the rest of the world combined and by a huge margin. They also have the most advanced intern…

$16B is the top line gross revenue number. You don't count R&D as an expense per GAAP, so... They have claimed $8B in EBITDA, also leaving out the amortization of R&D costs. Those aren't audited numbers, as far as I know.

Audited financials would be released with the S-1. But it's very unlikely that they are not audited given the amount of money they have raised.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#162

Post by sublinear »

riffraff wrote: post #116
lacy_tinpot wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In order to be incredulous at xAI, you'd have to be incredulous of the AI business in general, which is fair. But then you'd also be basically betting against the entire tech sector, and really the entire US economy and against the value add of AI. That kind of bet is much more difficult to swallow.

That's not true at all. I am confident some companies will make bank with AI. I am also confident xAI is not one of those. It's as if you said "if you don't think Lycos is a good business you don't think search engines can work in general".

I kinda disagree because while most search engines failed and Google succeeded, they did not succeed by simply being a better search engine.

This is only further demonstrated by their excellent leverage of Gemini. Google continues to succeed at being Google.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#163

Post by JumpCrisscross »

mrinterweb wrote: post #140

I feel the global instability could easily be very disruptive to SpaceX. Just imagine if Russia gets vindictive and starts destroying these satellites or blowing up their satellites to create orbital debris that could knock satellites out of orbit. A really bad solar storm could be devastating. Just saying there are some decent risks, and pricing it at 1.75T IPO seems risky enough. I would not take that gamble.

> imagine if Russia gets vindictive and starts destroying these satellites

Sounds like lots of demand for new launches from the military-industrial complex.

> imagine if Russia gets vindictive and starts destroying these satellites

Space is big. It’s almost always cheaper to individually target satellites than to try and blanket orbits. And with Starship vs ASAT, the cheap drones are the satellites. Russia would bankrupt itself trying to sink Starlink and Starshield.

(They would also set a precedent that would let the U.S. deny China a LEO constellation.)

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#164

Post by x0x0 »

luke5441 wrote: post #118
indoordin0saur wrote: post #113

SpaceX has reduced the cost of getting a ton of mass into orbit by a factor of 10 and with their new system (Starship) it's poised further reduce that to 100x. They launch, land and re-use their rockets so often now that what was considered impossible 15 years ago is now routine. They currently put more things into space than the rest of the world combined and by a huge margin. They also have the most advanced intern…

I don't see how replacing mobile carriers with space based infrastructure is physically possible.

It doesn't not seem like anything approaching a lucrative business.

TAM: How big is the market for high speed internet that can pay $1200+/year and isn't already well-served by comcast/at&t/etc? And of course, this is all with finite spectrum too. So you can't serve the major cities.

No doubt there exist buyers. But rural Montana doesn't have that many households. Add that 5 year replacement cycle and Musk's Trump alignment that has Europe building their own for security reasons.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#165

Post by karmakurtisaani »

chasd00 wrote: post #65
Diederich wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> SpaceX will now be beholden to Wall Street I get and appreciate that sentiment. Musk currently has a controlling interest in SpaceX. Do you expect that to change after the IPO? Thanks!

I get the feeling investors are going to watch Starship explode and explode while it's being developed without understanding the trial/error, hardware rich, approach SpaceX takes and not like it. That's going to hurt the stock price and therefore hurt the company. Before, when Starship exploded people just pointed and laughed at Musk but SpaceX kept going. For better or for worse it doesn't really bother him, don't f…

> idk what SpaceX has to gain by going public

They will save Elons shitty AI investment by making the public bag holders.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#166

Post by JumpCrisscross »

kakflelajf74 wrote: post #141
dang wrote: post #136

[stub for offtopicness] [All: please don't post unsubstantive comments to HN. You don't have to like $Company or $Person, but when the banned accounts are posting more thoughtfully than the rest, that's... bad.]

How can I avoid my retirement and index funds being a part of this garbage?

Don’t buy it. If you don’t have enough money to directly index, don’t waste time trying to pick stocks or time the market.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#167

Post by panick21_ »

I love space and they are an amazing company that I have been following for almost 2 decades, but I wouldn't touch that IPO with a 10 foot pool.

But the auto inclusion in Fortune 500 is basically cheating.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#169

Post by browningstreet »

jordanb wrote: post #15

You don't have to believe. If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch. The IPO will go great, because the company will float a fairly small issuance. The big shareholders will not immediately sell. They will hold on and maybe even buy to support the price. Then, after 15 days, it will enter the indexes and everyone's 401k will start auto-buying this stock. You might say this is an obvious flaw in…

They’re notably going for a large issuance.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#170

Post by derwiki »

jordanb wrote: post #15

You don't have to believe. If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch. The IPO will go great, because the company will float a fairly small issuance. The big shareholders will not immediately sell. They will hold on and maybe even buy to support the price. Then, after 15 days, it will enter the indexes and everyone's 401k will start auto-buying this stock. You might say this is an obvious flaw in…

My 401k has BrokerageLink set up and invests in VT/VTI. It takes less than 15 days so if your company offers BrokerageLink, you can avoid investing in SpaceX.
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