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SpaceX files to go public

nytimes.com

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Re: SpaceX files to go public

#111

Post by lacy_tinpot »

TheAlchemist wrote: post #46
jordanb wrote: post #15

You don't have to believe. If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch. The IPO will go great, because the company will float a fairly small issuance. The big shareholders will not immediately sell. They will hold on and maybe even buy to support the price. Then, after 15 days, it will enter the indexes and everyone's 401k will start auto-buying this stock. You might say this is an obvious flaw in…

I really wish more people were aware of this. It's a major scandal and definitely not being talked enough about. Nevermind SpaceX, which at least have some importance for US defense industry, but xAI ? We will be investing in Elon's private venture, at the price that he himself set and which is at least 2 orders of magnitude too high...

In order to be incredulous at xAI, you'd have to be incredulous of the AI business in general, which is fair.

But then you'd also be basically betting against the entire tech sector, and really the entire US economy and against the value add of AI. That kind of bet is much more difficult to swallow.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#112

Post by cosmicgadget »

jordanb wrote: post #15

You don't have to believe. If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch. The IPO will go great, because the company will float a fairly small issuance. The big shareholders will not immediately sell. They will hold on and maybe even buy to support the price. Then, after 15 days, it will enter the indexes and everyone's 401k will start auto-buying this stock. You might say this is an obvious flaw in…

The indexes buy based on market cap or float?

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#113

Post by indoordin0saur »

SpaceX has reduced the cost of getting a ton of mass into orbit by a factor of 10 and with their new system (Starship) it's poised further reduce that to 100x. They launch, land and re-use their rockets so often now that what was considered impossible 15 years ago is now routine. They currently put more things into space than the rest of the world combined and by a huge margin. They also have the most advanced internet infrastructure in the world and are poised to replace legacy ISPs and even mobile carriers in the coming decade. Oh, and they're doing all this while making a profit ($16B last year) despite their massive R&D spending and even with the money sink that is xAI their profits will be higher this year. It's hard to say that this isn't one of the most innovative and fast moving companies in the world. $1.75T maybe seems excessive, but less so than a lot of other companies out there.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#114

Post by Detrytus »

CalChris wrote: post #7
dang wrote: post #136

[stub for offtopicness] [All: please don't post unsubstantive comments to HN. You don't have to like $Company or $Person, but when the banned accounts are posting more thoughtfully than the rest, that's... bad.]

This is structured so that Musk becomes the first trillionaire.

Yeah, that's probably the only reason for SpaceX going public.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#115

Post by abeppu »

jordanb wrote: post #15

You don't have to believe. If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch. The IPO will go great, because the company will float a fairly small issuance. The big shareholders will not immediately sell. They will hold on and maybe even buy to support the price. Then, after 15 days, it will enter the indexes and everyone's 401k will start auto-buying this stock. You might say this is an obvious flaw in…

ok so it seems pretty bad that they changed the index rules both to allow spacex in early and the wonky weighting stuff. But if one already has index-based things that are likely to be captive on the wrong side of this, and one wanted to benefit or at least balance out, to confirm my limited understanding the goal would be:

- buy shortly after the IPO, ideally less than 15 days

- and sell less than 6 months later when lockups would end and insiders are set to cash out?

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#116

Post by riffraff »

lacy_tinpot wrote: post #111
TheAlchemist wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really wish more people were aware of this. It's a major scandal and definitely not being talked enough about. Nevermind SpaceX, which at least have some importance for US defense industry, but xAI ? We will be investing in Elon's private venture, at the price that he himself set and which is at least 2 orders of magnitude too high...

In order to be incredulous at xAI, you'd have to be incredulous of the AI business in general, which is fair. But then you'd also be basically betting against the entire tech sector, and really the entire US economy and against the value add of AI. That kind of bet is much more difficult to swallow.

That's not true at all.

I am confident some companies will make bank with AI. I am also confident xAI is not one of those.

It's as if you said "if you don't think Lycos is a good business you don't think search engines can work in general".

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#117

Post by b3ing »

How will they make money? From governments? With Elon's beliefs, few will be able to afford the vacation trips to space, except a few and they can already do this if they wanted, but haven't in droves.

If anything this just proves that the Overview Effect (traveling to space changes you) is just BS, Bezos and the others never changed.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#118

Post by luke5441 »

indoordin0saur wrote: post #113

SpaceX has reduced the cost of getting a ton of mass into orbit by a factor of 10 and with their new system (Starship) it's poised further reduce that to 100x. They launch, land and re-use their rockets so often now that what was considered impossible 15 years ago is now routine. They currently put more things into space than the rest of the world combined and by a huge margin. They also have the most advanced intern…

I don't see how replacing mobile carriers with space based infrastructure is physically possible.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#119

Post by riffraff »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #97
mosura wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ever since SNAP the whole IPO show has been a transparent scam to game the index funds. The market simply doesn’t have enough people actively investing because it rewards mass stupidity over generating meaningful returns.

Based on the list of businesses at the top, the stock market seems like it rewards profit margin and profits, by businesses that sell meaningful products and services. https://companiesmarketcap.com Can you provide an example of any of the businesses on that are on that list due to "mass stupidity"? They all seem to operate factories, employ many highly qualified people, and make a material difference in many or even…

I mean, that list has Tesla, which is overvalued by any plausible valuation approach.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#120

Post by convexly »

I'm genuinely waiting to see at what the valuation lands at. The gap between what SpaceX charges per launch and what everyone else charges is so wide that the moat basically is the rocket. Hard to compare against anything even now.
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