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Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

theguardian.com

161–170 of 370 posts

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#161

no one is willing to admit the EV tech isn't just there yet to fully replace gas powered cars?

98% of new car sales in Norway are EV at this point. How do you admit something that is not true?

Yes. Five million of them does not require many cars. 180k in 2025. Compare that to 2.4 million in Germany.

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A wealthy nation with a small population that has plenty of money to update their infrastructure is not comparable to upgrading the grid and converting the fleet of 250M cars in the US, which is a mess of 50 states who spend varying amounts of money on their infrastructure. The US grid is already stressed by all these new data centers, where is the power to send 10kW of power minimum to tens to hundreds of millions o…

If they could find the power for the data centers, why can’t we find it for EVs?

But they didn’t find power for data centres. That’s one of their problems.

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remove the EV subsidies and ICE taxes, and what would that number switch to?

97% perhaps. EVs are nicer and more convenient there. And cheaper.

> And cheaper.

You sound like a broken record.

> Remove the EV subsidies and ICE taxes.

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So essentially western government intervention in the economy is the only way and every company is behaving rationally by retreating until the government steps in and makes the long term math make sense for them.

We have learned from China. And?

The implementation details of government intervention in the economy is critically important for success and I don’t really think there is consensus as to how it should be done. Seems like the major tariffs on Chinese EVs are mostly about buying time, but western manufacturers see the writing on the wall and are leaving the market.

So now what?

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are plenty of countries that lack domestic automotive production that are very OK using Chinese EVs. Nepal for example, is all in in Chinese EVs now since it’s people couldn’t afford much gas or ICEs before, and with some hydro investments (also aided by China), they can now better afford to buy (cheap Chinese EVs) and drive cars (cheap hydro). There are a hundred nepals out there that the western and Japanese…

There's nothing wrong with Chinese EVs (or any EVs) going to Nepal or something. China is closer, it's a tough country to get to, makes sense that China (or India perhaps) would be their primary supplier.

Logistics through Tibet wasn’t really a thing until recently, China had to invest there. But it’s not just Nepal, it’s most of Africa, southeast asia, as well as Australia/NZ. China is literally creating markets for its products that simply didn’t exist at all before.

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure if $37k is a lot for a car I’ll agree with you. Then I think Tesla is now just joining Rivian and Lucid by being too expensive. The infrastructure would be besides the point then because you don’t care about that if you can’t even afford the car.

> Sure if $37k is a lot for a car 37k with 20% down payment means you borrow $29k at say, a 4.79% interest rate for 60 months so... $556/month. I know we're on HN with high salaried tech workers but c'mon, that's a lot of money and doesn't even include insurance. That and their base model 3 is RWD which makes it a non-starter for anyone who drives in snow/ice. The AWD model starts at $47k.

The average new car transaction price in the US is about $50k.

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By limiting imports and offering alternatives in home. Also, the myths about reliability ads a lot.

I really struggle with this model of protectionism. It has rarely worked in history, and when it did, it only did so for very short specific time frames intended to kickstart a sector, never to protect it in its mature state. Examples are south korean and japanese post ww2 protectionism of key sectors, but again, only to kickstart them. Those very sectors had to compete globally quickly to survive. We're in capitalis…

It has worked plenty. The US built its entire industrial base behind tariff walls in the 1800s. Japan protected Toyota and Sony until they could compete globally. South Korea did the same with Samsung. And China itself got there through decades of protectionism and subsidies.

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#168
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And I don't buy the "but China fuels money into their EV industry" either. Well, you’re wrong. There’s not much else to say bout that. > And why would I care if Chinese taxpayers subsidize my car? I really don't. Because it prices the vehicles below points where others can compete. Then they go out of business, and then the remaining winner raises prices. If you are Germany, Japan, or the United States that means l…

> Well, you’re wrong. There’s not much else to say bout that. That's an opinion, not a fact. > Because it prices the vehicles below points where others can compete. This is way too expensive for something like that to last. The rush to the bottom is already killing so many chinese automakers locally. The idea that they can sustain such a money bleed globally is hard to believe.

It seems like you're ignoring real-life things that happened to fit your world model.

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

97% perhaps. EVs are nicer and more convenient there. And cheaper.

> And cheaper. You sound like a broken record. > Remove the EV subsidies and ICE taxes.

Should I include the cost of the current wars?

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's nothing wrong with Chinese EVs (or any EVs) going to Nepal or something. China is closer, it's a tough country to get to, makes sense that China (or India perhaps) would be their primary supplier.

Logistics through Tibet wasn’t really a thing until recently, China had to invest there. But it’s not just Nepal, it’s most of Africa, southeast asia, as well as Australia/NZ. China is literally creating markets for its products that simply didn’t exist at all before.

Sure, though I'm not positive that's a good economic strategy outside of perhaps SE Asia. Market size in places like Africa, along with general instability presenting challenges has not made it a great place to invest, unless of course you have state backing and subsidies from, idk, China?

But let's say China develops these markets and they can afford more cars. That's great. That means after China develops them, Western countries can come in and sell their cars too at China's developmental expense. Seems like a win-win all around.

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