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Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

dwarkesh.com

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Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#161
post #68

>What takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it’s a march of nines. Every single nine is a constant amount of work. Every single nine is the same amount of work. When you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine. Then you need the second nine, a third nine, a fourth nine, a fifth nine. While I was at Tesla for five years or so, we went through maybe three…

Ha, I often speak of doing the first 90% of the work, and then moving on to the following 90% of the work...

> The first 90 percent of the code accounts for the first 90 percent of the development time. The remaining 10 percent of the code accounts for the other 90 percent of the development time.

— Tom Cargill, Bell Labs (September 1985)

https://dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1145/4284.315122

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#162

A definition of AGI: https://www.agidefinition.ai/ A new contribution by quite a few prominent authors. One of the better efforts at defining AGI *objectively*, rather than through indirect measures like economic impact. I believe it is incomplete because the psychological theory it is based on is incomplete. It is definitely worth discussing though. —- In particular, creative problem solving in the strong sense, ie…

I don't know a single one of the "Social Science" items, and I'm pretty sure 90% of college educated people wouldn't know a single one either.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn’t say that any specific skill (like literacy) is required to have intelligence. It’s more the capability to learn skills and build a model of the world and the people in it using abstract reasoning. Otherwise we would have to say that pre-literacy societies lacked intelligence, which would be silly since they are the ones that invented writing in the first place!

[flagged]

Most people cannot comprehend an audiobook? No way.

If you have evidence for that claim, show it. Otherwise, no, you're just making stuff up.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The interview which I've watched recently with Rich Sutton left me with the impression that AGI is not just a matter of adding more 9s. The interviewer had an idea that he took for granted: that to understand language you have to have a model of the world. LLMs seem to udnerstand language therefore they've trained a model of the world. Sutton rejected the premise immediately. He might be right in being skeptical here…

yeah that "model of the world" would mean: babies are already born with "the model of the world" but a lot of experiments on babies/young kids tell otherwise

Lots of experiments show that babies develop import capabilities at roughly the same times. That speaks to inherited abilities.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Machine learning as a descriptive phrase has stopped being relevant. It implies the discovery of information in a training set. The pre-training of an LLM is most definitely machine learning. But what people are excited and interested in is the use of this learned data in generative AI. “Machine learning” doesn’t capture that aspect.

But the things we try to make LLMs do post-pre-training are primarily achieved via reinforcement learning. Isn't reinforcement learning machine learning? Correct me if I'm misconstruing what you're trying to say here

You are still talking about training. Generative applications have always been fundamentally different from classification problems, and has now (in the form of transformers and diffusion models) taken on entirely new architectures.

If “machine learning” is taken to be so broad as to include any artificial neural network, all of which are trained with back propagation these days, then it is useless as a term.

The term “machine learning” was coined in the era of specialized classification agents that would learn how to segment inputs in some way. Thing email spam detection, or identifying cat pictures. These algorithms are still an essential part of both the pre-training and RLHF fine tuning of LLM models. But the generative architectures are new and very essential to the current interest in and hype surrounding AI at this point in time.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Most people cannot comprehend an audiobook? No way. If you have evidence for that claim, show it. Otherwise, no, you're just making stuff up.

Sorry, it should be "most americans"!

Very simple proof, they can not even read/listen to their own constitution!

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#169
post #166

I knew this once I heard OpenAI was going to get into the porn bot business. If you have AGI you don't need porn bots.

Why not?

Most likely because you'll be filthy reach from selling AGI and won't need to go after secondary revenue sources.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are you because it’s sure not where I am…

5 years ago, everyone would agree that what we have today is AGI.

At least until they spend some time with it
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