A bear case: My predictions regarding AI progress

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Mar 10, 2025, 7:28 PM UTC

mola wrote: post #29

bloomingkales wrote: post #3

Let's imagine that we all had a trillion dollars. Then we would all sit around and go "well dang, we have everything, what should we do?". I think you'll find that just about everyone would agree, "we oughta see how far that LLM thing can go". We could be in nuclear fallout shelters for decades, and I think you'll still see us trying to push the LLM thing underground, through duress. We dream of this, so the bear cas…

Wdym all of us? I certainly would find much better usages for the money. What about reforming democracy? Use the corrupt system to buy the votes, then abolish all laws allowing these kind of donations that allow buying votes. I'll litigate the hell out of all the oligarchs now that they can't out pay justice. This would pay off more than a moon shot. I would give a bit of money for the moon shot, why not, but not all…

Post by jimbokun » Mon, Mar 10, 2025, 7:40 PM UTC

redlock wrote: post #100

notTooFarGone wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

hardware improvements don't strike me as the horse to bet on. LLM Progression seems to be linear and compute needed exponential. And I don't see exponential hardware improvements besides some new technology (that we should not bet on coming ayntime soon).

Moore's law is exponential

Post by HelloMcFly » Mon, Mar 10, 2025, 8:15 PM UTC

immibis wrote: post #152

HelloMcFly wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> innovative, but not revolutionary The experience of Netflix, Spotify, and Uber were revolutionary. It felt like the future, and it worked as expected. Sure, we didn't realize the poison these products were introducing into many creative and labor ecosystems, nor did we fully appreciate how they would operate as means to widen the income inequality gap by concentrating more profits to executives. But they fit cleanl…

Making simple, small improvements feel revolutionary is good marketing.

Post by nitwit005 » Mon, Mar 10, 2025, 9:45 PM UTC

xnx wrote: post #71

roncesvalles wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They were revolutionary as product genres, not necessary individual companies. Ordering a cab without making a phone call was revolutionary. Netflix at least with its initial promise of having all the world's movies and TV was revolutionary, but it didn't live up to that. Spotify because of how cheap and easy it was to have access to all the music, this was the era when people were paying 99c per song on iTunes. I've…

> Ordering a cab without making a phone call was revolutionary. With the power of AI, soon you'll be able to say "Hey Siri, get me an Uber to the airport". As easy as making a phone call.

Post by torginus » Mon, Mar 10, 2025, 10:38 PM UTC

carlosdp wrote: post #112

stego-tech wrote: post #2

> At some point there might be massive layoffs due to ostensibly competent AI labor coming onto the scene, perhaps because OpenAI will start heavily propagandizing that these mass layoffs must happen. It will be an overreaction/mistake. The companies that act on that will crash and burn, and will be outcompeted by companies that didn't do the stupid. We're already seeing this with tech doing RIFs and not backfilling…

I'll take that bet, easily. There's absolutely no way that we're not going to see a massive reduction in the need for "humans writing code" moving forward, given how good LLMs are getting at writing code. That doesn't mean people won't need devs! I think there's a real case where increased capabilities from LLMs leads to bigger demand for people that know how to direct the tools effectively, of which most would proba…