Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

GPT-5 is behind schedule

wsj.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

161–170 of 1001 posts

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#161

Post by knapcio »

Animats wrote: post #123

"Orion’s problems signaled to some at OpenAI that the more-is-more strategy, which had driven much of its earlier success, was running out of steam." So LLMs finally hit the wall. For a long time, more data, bigger models, and more compute to drive them worked. But that's apparently not enough any more. Now someone has to have a new idea. There's plenty of money available if someone has one. The current level of LLM…

I’m wondering whether O3 can be used to explore its own improvement or optimization ideas, or if it hasn’t reached that point yet.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#162

Post by vasco »

simonw wrote: post #146
jacobsimon wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s nothing grammatically offensive about this. It’s like saying, “Cars come in all colors. Mine is red.”

No, I'm complaining that just because GPT-4 is called GPT-4 doesn't mean it's the fourth LLM from OpenAI. Off the top of my head: GPT-2, Codex, GPT-3 in three different flavors (babbage, curie, davinci), GPT-3.5. Suggesting that GPT-4 was "fourth" simply isn't credible. Just the other day they announced a jump from o1 to o3, skipping o2 purely because it's already the name of a major telecommunications brand in Europ…

Imagine coming up with a naming scheme for the versioning of your product just for it to fail on the second time you want to use it.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#163

Post by nuancebydefault »

ADeerAppeared wrote: post #47
beacon294 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's someone with this comment in every thread. Meanwhile, no one answers this because they are getting value. Please take the time to learn, it will give you value.

> Meanwhile, no one answers this because they are getting value. You're literally doing the same thing you're accusing of. Every HN thread is full of AI boosters claiming AI to be the future with no backing evidence. Riddle me this. If all these people are "getting value", why are all these companies losing horrendous amounts of money? Why has nobody figured out how to be profitable? > Please take the time to learn,…

Think of all the search engines alltheweb, yahoo, astalavista,... where sooo much money got poored in, and finally there was just one winner taking it all. That's the race openai is trying to win now. The competition is fierce and we can just play with all kinds of models for free and we do nothing but complaining.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#164

Post by benatkin »

lelandfe wrote: post #148
jacobsimon wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s nothing grammatically offensive about this. It’s like saying, “Cars come in all colors. Mine is red.”

It’s more like saying “the Audi Quattro, the company’s fourth car…”

Because there’s an Audi Tre e Mezzo?

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#165

Post by Yizahi »

GPT-5 is not behind schedule. GPT-5 is called GPT-4o and it has been already released half a year ago. It was not revolutionary enough to be called 5, and prophet saint Altman was probably afraid to release new gen not exponentially improving, so it was rebranded in the last moment. It's speculation of course, but it is kinda obvious speculation.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#166

Post by oceanplexian »

peepeepoopoo98 wrote: post #145
briga wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What wall? Not a week has gone by in recent years without an LLM breaking new benchmarks. There is little evidence to suggest it will all come to a halt in 2025.

O3 has demonstrated that OpenAI needs 1,000,000% more inference time compute to score 50% higher on benchmarks. If O3-High costs about $350k an hour to operate, that would mean making O4 score 50% higher would cost $3.5B (!!!) an hour. That scaling wall.

I’m convinced they’re getting good at gaming the benchmarks since 4 has deteriorated via ChatGPT, in fact I’ve used 4-0125 and 4-1106 via the API and find them far superior to o1 and o1-mini at coding problems. GPT4 is an amazing tool but the true capabilities are being hidden from the public and/or intentionally neutered.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#167

Post by famouswaffles »

peepeepoopoo98 wrote: post #145
briga wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What wall? Not a week has gone by in recent years without an LLM breaking new benchmarks. There is little evidence to suggest it will all come to a halt in 2025.

O3 has demonstrated that OpenAI needs 1,000,000% more inference time compute to score 50% higher on benchmarks. If O3-High costs about $350k an hour to operate, that would mean making O4 score 50% higher would cost $3.5B (!!!) an hour. That scaling wall.

Not really. o3-low compute still stomps the benchmarks and isn't anywhere that expensive and o3-mini seems better than o1 while being cheaper.

Combine that with the fact that LLM inference has reduced orders of magnitudes in cost the last few years and hampering over the inference costs of a new release seems a bit silly.

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#168

Post by [deleted] »

viraptor wrote: post #133
noman-land wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I completely don't understand the use for synthetic data. What good it's it to train a model basically on itself?

This is a good read for some examples https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.14465 > This technique, the "Self-Taught Reasoner" (STaR), relies on a simple loop: generate rationales to answer many questions, prompted with a few rationale examples; if the generated answers are wrong, try again to generate a rationale given the correct answer; fine-tune on all the rationales that ultimately yielded correct answers; repeat. We show…

[deleted]

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#169

Post by [deleted] »

jrm4 wrote: post #143
briga wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What wall? Not a week has gone by in recent years without an LLM breaking new benchmarks. There is little evidence to suggest it will all come to a halt in 2025.

Sure, but "benchmarks" here seems roughly as useful as "benchmarks" for GPUs or CPUs, which don't much translate to what the makers of GPT need, which is 'money making use cases.'

[deleted]

Re: GPT-5 is behind schedule

#170

Post by dmkolobov »

tucnak wrote: post #141
sdwr wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great improvements and all, but they are still no closer (as of 4o regular) to having a system that can be responsible for work. In math problems, it forgets which variable represents what, in coding questions it invents library fns. I was watching a YouTube interview with a "trading floor insider". They said they were really being paid for holding risk. The bank has a position in a market, and it's their ass on the…

> ChatGPT (as far as I can tell) is no closer to being accountable or responsible for anything it produces. What does it even mean? How do you imagine that? You want OpenAI to take on liability for the kicks of it?

Obviously not. I want legislation which imposes liability on OpenAI and similar companies if they actively market their products for use in safety-critical fields and their product doesn’t perform as advertised.

If a system is providing incorrect medical diagnoses, or denying services to protected classes due to biases in the training in the training data, someone should be held accountable.

Post reply on HN