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Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

economist.com

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Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#161

Post by ipnon »

epolanski wrote: post #86
bena wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The dominant opinion of the people of China or of the government of China? I would say that the majority of the people of China are much like the majority of the people of any land, they don't directly care about the issue. Someone on the other side of the country in Karamay probably doesn't even think about Taiwan for most of their days. However, according to the government of China, Taiwan is an island occupied by…

> However, according to the government of China, Taiwan is an island occupied by a rogue government, the last remnants of the losing side of a Civil War. I mean, it's not an opinion, it's a fact of how things went.

When the war started Taiwan was part of the Japanese empire.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#162

Post by brazzy »

ozmodiar wrote: post #56
dwohnitmok wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Taiwanese concept of "unification" is not what you're thinking of. The Taiwanese faction supporting unification (usually the KMT) does not envision a world where Taiwan is/becomes a province of the PRC, they envision a world where the ROC governs all current PRC provinces, that is where they are in the seat of power in Beijing. I.e. this is something going in the opposite direction. The opposing faction rejects t…

I've never heard this take, even while in Taiwan. They aren't deluded, they know they aren't retaking the mainland. The reason they don't declare themselves a country is because China won't support it and they're worried it would trigger an invasion. China prefers Taiwan be a rebellious province rather than an independent country because it strengthens China's claim to the island. The KMT used to be feeling out a HK…

>China prefers Taiwan be a rebellious province rather than an independent country because it strengthens China's claim to the island.

I'm pretty sure that the Chinese government is actually scared shitless that Taiwan declaring independence would reinvigorate independence movements in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and probably half a dozen more.

A new civil war in China would make WWII look like a minor scuffle.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#163

Post by [deleted] »

ipnon wrote: post #161
epolanski wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> However, according to the government of China, Taiwan is an island occupied by a rogue government, the last remnants of the losing side of a Civil War. I mean, it's not an opinion, it's a fact of how things went.

When the war started Taiwan was part of the Japanese empire.

[deleted]

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#164

Post by eatonphil »

simplotek wrote: post #151
dirtyid wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>unconditional victory Doubt. UKR doing ok on battlefield but strategically it will be a dead country for generations. Vast unrecoverable levels of human capita loss, most of whom will never go back. UKR is going to be demographic deadend for the foreseeable future even if they manage to rebuild, which is far from certain as RU can drag conflict out for long time. That's going to be increasingly obvious as war contin…

I'm not going to go off on a tangent on a discussion on Taiwan, but I don't believe none of your assertions is grounded on reality. Ukraine is doing magnificently on the battlefield, specially given Russia planned their invasion to be a 3-day event with frontline soldiers packing parade uniforms and riot gear and Russian generals booking restaurants in Kiev in advance. To attest to Ukraine's prowess, Russia's ruling…

> In the meantime, the west already lined up a massive plan to rebuild Ukraine

Could you share any links on this?

> not to mention it's already in the process of joining the EU.

It seems Ukraine is likely decades away from qualifying to join the EU.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-long-will-it-take-u...

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#165

Post by epolanski »

Manuel_D wrote: post #133
epolanski wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it funny how much we in the west demonize China while we have attacked them, colonized them, consistently tampered with them, didn't recognize the PRC till the late 70s. China has never laid a finger on the west, we did, yet we keep demonizing them, meddling in their own business (HK, e.g.) all while we fight wars all around the globe, spy everyone and overthrow governments left and right.

The PRC did send troops to Korea during the Korean war, the result of which is the north Korean dictatorship that abuses it's citizens and threatens nuclear war. It also drove out the KMT, which was part of "the west" in the sense that they were the principle Chinese Allied faction combating the empire of Japan during WWII. That and continued violation of territorial waters of surrounding countries. "China hasn't lai…

So for the US troops it was fine to go there, but for chinese not?

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#166

Post by nl »

yogthos wrote: post #127
nl wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To quote one of the six assurances mentioned in your quote above: > 6. The United States would not formally recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan.

US State Department literally recognizes Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan, so does UN and practically every nation in the world.

> US State Department literally recognizes Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan,

No, it explicitly references the Six Assurances right there, which says it doesn't:

> The United States would not formally recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#167

Post by AnnikaL »

inconceivable wrote: post #66

does anyone know of a betting/futures market where one can put a wager on this happening or not by a certain date? the rhetoric in the west has gotten so intense in this area that i'm feeling like talking about it online is pointless - i'd rather put my money down.

https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-china-attempt-to-invad...

https://manifold.markets/a/china-will-not-launch-a-fullscale...

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#168

Post by DennisP »

tablespoon wrote: post #142
DennisP wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also they import about 90% of their oil. They probably assumed that sanctions would not be all that severe, given their pivotal position in the world economy. Perhaps they'll reconsider after seeing the level of sanctions against Russia.

>>> ...the article doesn’t mention just how incredibly vulnerable China is to possible sanctions targeting their food supply. China imports most of its food and as their farmland is quite poor, its hugely dependent on fertiliser to feed itself. Sanctions targeting these basics would be devastating... >> Also they import about 90% of their oil. > They probably assumed that sanctions would not be all that severe, given…

Exactly. Russia is able to withstand the sanctions because they are major exporters of food and oil. China is in the opposite position.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#169

Post by bxtt »

yogthos wrote: post #37
jmclnx wrote: post #3

All they need to do is look at what happened in Hong Kong. If China did not do what they did in Hong Kong, Taiwan may be headed to some kind on unification. Now, they would be crazy to even entertain that thought. This issue lies directly on China and no one else. If I had a say in Taiwan, I would announce it is now a independent Country.

[flagged]

I never got this argument and I now where this point devolves into - I see this take a lot from Chinese on Weibo, locally here in Asia, and by Chinese people in the States. I’m Taiwanese-American for background.

If China were to interfere domestically into U.S affairs covertly and somehow convince Texas into secession - I would find it difficult to believe the United States would go to war with Texas. If it was democratically voted, most Americans would be fine with it. It would be extremely unpopular to go to war over this. Just reverse it, if California were to leave the Union, most conservative states would say good riddance. Now bomb SF? Not even the most deranged Americans would want that.

Re: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat

#170

Post by yogthos »

nl wrote: post #166
yogthos wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US State Department literally recognizes Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan, so does UN and practically every nation in the world.

> US State Department literally recognizes Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan, No, it explicitly references the Six Assurances right there, which says it doesn't: > The United States would not formally recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan.

US State Department says in black and white on their website that Taiwan is part of China. The fact that you keep trying to pretend there's some ambiguity here is beyond hilarious.
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