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France's baby bust

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Re: France's baby bust

#161
> From the dawn of humanity to the eighteenth century, human life was dominated by starvation, poverty, wars, and pandemics.

Actually no, human life only started to be dominated by this after the shift from hunter gatherer to agrarian societies.

Re: France's baby bust

#162
post #109
post #42

GDP in "real dollars" is irrelevant here. Any such measurement can't correspond to something meaningful. Rather "annual calories from agriculture per capita" would reveal much more of the reasons behind this and other upheavals in Europe during the period. There were climate/weather changes (not well understood or appropriate to research in light of current climate changes) in Europe during 1500-1850, which caused st…

Why would the climate/weather changes stop right at the French border?

They didn't.

But if the amount of available calories drops below the necessary amount, then famine occurs. How bad this is depends on how much overshoot, and how prepared the population is to find alternatives.

In Irish history, there is the "Great Famine". During the 1800s, maybe 20% of the population of Ireland and the Scandinavian countries emigrated to north america.

The current trend of global warming and increasing harvests started in the later 1800s. Then came mechanised farming, artificial fertilizers, and science.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

Re: France's baby bust

#163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a handful of modern religious and fundamentalist groups that sociologists study for this purpose: Mormons, ultra-orthodox Jews, evangelicals, etc. The interesting thing about these groups is that they exhibit “carrying limits”: they get to particular community sizes and begin to experience attrition through secularization.

You are ignoring Islam - the fastest growing religion in the world. And its primarily because of birth rate.

I picked the three examples I was most familiar with!

Re: France's baby bust

#164
post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but for contrast Italia is a largely more catholic country than France [0], yet France has a higher fertility rate [1] So religion can be a factor, but there are so many other factors than can weight in the balance. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catholic_Church_by_country [1] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/d...

> Italia is a largely more catholic country than France [0], yet France has a higher fertility rate France fertility rate are boosted by its Muslim population https://mythdetector.ge/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/inline-im... .

Muslims account for about 6% of the general population in France, so I doubt that explains the difference.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_France

Re: France's baby bust

#165
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn’t say attrition overwhelmed the overall growth pattern. Most evidence suggests that it’s a proportion that increases with overall religious population, with compounding or confounding. factors (e.g. increasing or decreasing participation in a broader secular society). Haredim “get away” with minimizing participation in many ways, which makes their attrition rates lower than comparable religious groups. But tha…

Modernization drew a lot of people away from traditional religion. But Hasidim and the Amish etc are "post modern". They have developed various cultural features to "immunize" themselves against the temptations of modernity. There is no reason for this to start failing at any particular point, except perhaps when they become too much of an imposition on the rest of society, which pushes back on them.

[deleted]

Re: France's baby bust

#166
post #2

> In 1700, almost 1 in 25 inhabitants on Earth, and one in five in Europe, was French. Today, less than a percent of humanity is French. Why did France’s population decline in relative terms so dramatically, and did it really mark the decline of France? It seems far-fetched to use global population as a relative indicator of France's "decline", where the global population exploded after the industrial revolution.

It is actually not true. The global population exploded after industrialized nations developed after WW2 new types of high yield crops and then gave those away to non-industrialized nations.

Re: France's baby bust

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This does not accord with the Israeli experience. The Haredim have grown enough as a proportion that they shifted the Israeli median voter substantially to the right.

I didn’t say attrition overwhelmed the overall growth pattern. Most evidence suggests that it’s a proportion that increases with overall religious population, with compounding or confounding. factors (e.g. increasing or decreasing participation in a broader secular society). Haredim “get away” with minimizing participation in many ways, which makes their attrition rates lower than comparable religious groups. But tha…

> I didn’t say attrition overwhelmed the overall growth pattern.

But that was implied by discussing a carrying _limit_ right?

Re: France's baby bust

#168
post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but for contrast Italia is a largely more catholic country than France [0], yet France has a higher fertility rate [1] So religion can be a factor, but there are so many other factors than can weight in the balance. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catholic_Church_by_country [1] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/d...

> Italia is a largely more catholic country than France [0], yet France has a higher fertility rate France fertility rate are boosted by its Muslim population https://mythdetector.ge/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/inline-im... .

Immigration is a strong part of it yes.

Looking deeper into your source numbers, it’s interesting that they’re not consistent across countries for populations that are all “muslim”.

From 1.5 in Greece to 3.1 in Finland, it still shows to me that religion is not the main factor in this.

Re: France's baby bust

#169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>with 70 million inhabitants Because capitalists want more. More workers, more consumers, more sales, more demand for housing, more demand for goods, more profit.

That, an also race supremacists and nationalists. It all stems from the idea that a category of people should grow and dominate the world.

Where will smart africans go if there is not a west? Asia is pretty anti immigrant. South america is poor. Arab nations are repressive.

Re: France's baby bust

#170
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The assumption that religion is something that people stick with is dubious, though. In the absence of coercion people will tend to abandon religion. Look at what's happening to Christianity in the US.

I thought the same, but real life experience shows that in my country (Romania) there is an increase of religion with age, especially for women; in other words, most women start being religious when they age and these days most of the religious traditions are maintained and transmitted by old women. I know many women that were secular in their 20-30, become religious at 50 and are regular churchgoers at 70. My mother…

Romania is an interesting case from a demographic point of view. Many, many factors at work in that very old part of the world.
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