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The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

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Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#161

Post by majormajor »

lostcolony wrote: post #141
colechristensen wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People like to point at Japan and its lack of growth pointing out to various degrees how awful that is, but if you’re actually Japanese, you’re pretty much fine for these decades of zeroish growth. Not to say Japan is an idyllic place free from problems, but the economics of a zero growth society has at least that example of a distinct lack of doom. If the rest of us experience it like that, it’s not really anything…

"People" might, but the post you're replying to didn't. All they said was "Declining populations simply cannot maintain the “grow at all costs” current economic order" which implies a change is necessary, not whether that change is good/bad/whatever.

But Japan experienced that change already and it wasn't apocalyptic by any means. Puranjay's claim here is almost literally "change will happen, and it will bring grief." So change happening without much grief runs right against that.

Meanwhile, the US has had any number of highly-adversarial, occasionally-violent political fights in the last decade while still in that "grow the top line" mindset.

You could make a plausible argument that those additional few decades of "growth" has a lot to do with the violence and unrest, even, not the other way around. (For instance, see any of a number of takes from all over the political spectrum blaming increasing stratification of elites.)

Hell, wasn't Marx predicting internal upheaval and self-defeat of capitalist economies many, many decades ago based on the same sort of demographics/populations/resources economic arguments? Things will change is an easy prediction, they haven't ever been stable. But it's also a meaningless one if you can't convincingly show that it's this decade not "any time between 10 and 200 years from now."

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#162

Post by iggldiggl »

smt88 wrote: post #59
yrgulation wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Their populations will shrink with mathematical certainty. Yeah you know why? Because both parents sitting in offices 8 hours a day have no means of looking after their kids. And a mother giving birth needs to return to work in a few months time, else she there's no pay. Oh and neither parent can give up work to raise these future adults because living expenses are too high. I don't know why everyone is so surprise…

This is a popular theory on reddit, but it's not true. Birth rates are extremely low even in countries that paid parents to stay at home with kids and generally have good work culture. You would also expect birth rates to be lowest among people working 2-3 low-wage jobs, which is also not true. As financial stability and safety increase, birth rates go down. That's the only common driver of it. Historically, children…

Endless (population) growth might not be sustainable, but

> Low birth rates are not a problem (and reflect enormous amounts of social progress). We just need to solve the Ponzi scheme of retirement and elder care, which I think is doable with automation.

… neither is endless shrinkage, automation or not.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#163

Post by pydry »

anonporridge wrote: post #147
bombcar wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sanctions are a "one time weapon" I fear, and many many countries are now including "what if we or someone we trade with gets sanctioned by the US" as part of their contingency planning.

I agree. It only really works in practice against small and globally insignificant countries that can realistically be cut off. It's starting to look like the US majorly blundered with Russian sanctions, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/21/world/europe/ukraine-russ...

Doesnt even really work then. In Iraq it just meant a million people people/babies dying from preventable disease and the rest resenting the US for it.

It's blunt, ineffectual weapon at the best of times. Target an economy that's too strong and the sanctioner ends up hit almost as badly as the sanctionee. If we did it to China we'd probably be hit with 20-50% inflation instead of 9%.

I dont really see how US war planners can back out of the Russian sanctions though, even at 9% inflation. It would mean losing so much face to kowtow to Putin, but Ill bet theyll be far more hesitant to use it elsewhere.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#164

Post by MR4D »

colechristensen wrote: post #123
puranjay wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His core arguments focus on geography and demographics, both of which are “hard” problems. Declining populations simply cannot maintain the “grow at all costs” current economic order. Even an advanced country like Japan with plenty of automation and high productivity rates hasn’t see any growth in two decades since its population itself doesn’t grow anymore. Even if you don’t go by his more alarmist arguments, you ha…

People like to point at Japan and its lack of growth pointing out to various degrees how awful that is, but if you’re actually Japanese, you’re pretty much fine for these decades of zeroish growth. Not to say Japan is an idyllic place free from problems, but the economics of a zero growth society has at least that example of a distinct lack of doom. If the rest of us experience it like that, it’s not really anything…

That’s likely to change for the worst for Japan in the next year or two, possibly as soon as this summer.

They’re trying to defend their currency and interest rates at the same time. Already the Yen has taken a beating this year. They are at high risk of a huge economic shock.

They’ve been able to postpone it, but just like getting out of a bad stock trade, only the first movers can do it, which means others can’t copy the Japanese strategy. Also, there are tons of specifics for Japan, such as education, economic drivers, geography and supply chains that make it unique, so it would be even harder to copy.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#165

Post by nominusllc »

chaosharmonic wrote: post #11
hprotagonist wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

May i recommend Mr. Lee’s Greater Hong Kong?

I'm sorry, but Uncle Enzo and I go way back, and I couldn't do that to him -- not after I already promised him I'd go to the job fair coming up.

yeah but you get a huff of freon with every order

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#166

Post by Arrath »

an9n wrote: post #10

> Russia is blockading Ukraine grain exports Russia say that it's Ukraine refusing to demine the waters that it, Ukraine, mined in the first place. I've also read that the impact of the (lack of) grain exports is drastically overblown

Yes the invader would find it vexing that the defender mined their harbor. Imagine that.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#167

Post by hintymad »

This is probably an unpopular opinion: it pains me to see the manufacturing industry decline in the US. I don't really mind paying $300 for a pair of shoes. Yes, it will be expensive, but then I'll just buy fewer pairs. In return, more people get decent jobs, or so I hope. And no, I'm not talking about just the so-called "low-end" manufacturing, but also the high end. Indeed, how can we even grow "high-end" talent if we don't have a place for them to start their career? The average age of workers in the remaining few ship manufacturers is well over 50. The cost of producing things in the US is just way more expensive than in China, even if we factor out labor cost. When covid started, both GE and BYD set up factories to produce masks. GE's assembly lines are semi automatic, if not manual, and their machines looked archaic. In contrast, BYD's assembly line was fully automated and shiny.

I mean, can a country as large as the US be really competitive without manufacturing? I just can't see how services and virtual stuff like FB alone can be essential.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#168

Post by codefreeordie »

ajuc wrote: post #149
codefreeordie wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Go back and read Adam Smith. The thing we don't appreciate today is that having more children used to be an investment -- not just in the idea of family, but literally an investment, as kids would grow up enough to start producing more resources than they cost pretty quickly, and were a net contributor to the family. Nowadays, having kids is wonderful and great and fulfilling and life-changing and all those things --…

That's before WW2 maybe. I'm talking about 80s vs now.

Oh, for sure, having children stopped being net-economically-positive long ago -- though the degree to which it is net-economically-negative seems like it has kept increasing, as our expectations of an acceptable childhood keep growing.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#169

Post by anonporridge »

pydry wrote: post #163
anonporridge wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. It only really works in practice against small and globally insignificant countries that can realistically be cut off. It's starting to look like the US majorly blundered with Russian sanctions, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/21/world/europe/ukraine-russ...

Doesnt even really work then. In Iraq it just meant a million people people/babies dying from preventable disease and the rest resenting the US for it. It's blunt, ineffectual weapon at the best of times. Target an economy that's too strong and the sanctioner ends up hit almost as badly as the sanctionee. If we did it to China we'd probably be hit with 20-50% inflation instead of 9%. I dont really see how US war plan…

It's now a calculation of whether they lose more face sticking pigheadedly to a bad decision, that the rest of world is moving on from, or losing more face by admitting they were wrong and quickly changing tactics.

Based on the fact that marijuana is still considered a schedule one drug, with no accepted medical use, at the US federal level, I'm going to put my money on pigheadedly continuing with a likely wrong strategy.

The US government is facing a rapidly accelerating legitimacy crisis due to its apparent inability to say "we were wrong".

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#170

Post by drcongo »

bagacrap wrote: post #65
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's like this: "The end of the world" is not an event, it's a process. That process is just beginning. We're nowhere near "the end of the end". At least, that's what I think it's trying to say.

but the title of the book has "the"

Yeah, thanks. The article is about a book called "The End Of The World Is Just The Beginning", the missing "the" turns the meaning of the book title on its head, from an optimistic sounding "this is just the beginning" to a fatalistic "the end of the world is beginning".
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