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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#161

Post by Kinrany »

beepbooptheory wrote: post #57

I just have no confidence that we can really know anything for sure one way or another. The media so far (in the West) ranges from tangibly self-conscious to overt propaganda, much of which is proven false a day later. There is no harm in this in itself, propaganda is as much part of the war as any other part, I get that, but I at this point I wouldn't be surprised that Russia is doing much better than what is being…

> There is no harm in this in itself, propaganda is as much part of the war as any other part

Huh? War is incredibly harmful to civilian infrastructure, and propaganda is similarly harmful to our ability to communicate.

Putin's propaganda loves this trope: "we can't know for sure, it's all propaganda, you have no choice but to pick a side. We're totally the good guys though, so be a good little soldier, spread our memes and ignore all other sources".

Contrary to what some people would like you to believe, you can know things without first-hand experience and you can be certain without having 100% proof.

Listening less to known liars also helps.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#162

Post by bdamm »

kinleyd wrote: post #84
k__ wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think, they should do the exact opposite. Join EU on a quick path and call Putin's nuclear bluff. I'm not happy about it and can't sleep right for days anymore, because I fear a nuclear escalation. But I don't want to live in a world where such a situation could happen again and again. There are many slavic countries this fascist hungers for.

Given what's already happened, and provided (I'm hoping) Ukraine continues to hold out as it has, both EU/NATO membership is looking very realistic and likely to occur in relatively quick order. I think settling for less would be illogical at this point.

EU membership is only possible if certain economic metrics are met, IIRC, and that is impossible to achieve while under attack or even soon after in the rebuilding phase. So to me EU membership is looking pretty far out. Why does it look realistic to you?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#163

Post by rurban »

JimBlackwood wrote: post #117
imwillofficial wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ghost of Kiev Snake Island Soldiers Dying Heroically Nuclear Reactor Shelled, Radiation Rising

For your third point I think you are mixing things up. Zaporizhzhia was shelled and afaik no increase in radiation was mentioned in any news I read. News also stressed that an office building was shelled, not the actual reactor. Chernobyl there were rumors about a nuclear waste depot being blown up and subsequent increase in radiation. However, it was always mentioned that this could be due to troop movement over con…

Only the reactors 5 and 6 were shut down, 1-4 not.

I never heard that the control room was on fire, only that Chechens attached explosives to the reactors.

The shelling was at the training reactor building, and the administrative building was shot at and set on fire.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#164

Post by T-A »

deutschew wrote: post #14
nwiswell wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. The terrain for Ukranian insurgents will simply be civilians. How can you tell who is going to shoot you in the back when you turn around? Unfortunately, we live in a new age and China has perfected facial recognition software, which they will probably have no scruples about providing to Russia. I'm not sure a crowd provides the same kind of anonymity that it once did.

The uncomfortable truth is that civilians will be used as shields by insurgency as it always has. We are starting to see some of this right now (and I'm not 100% certain) but for instance the alleged Azov battalion operating near DNR/LNR area is said to be not allowing citizens to leave the city. There are footages going around them turning (you can tell from the patches they wear) citizens away from checkpoints as t…

> There are footages going around them turning (you can tell from the patches they wear) citizens away from checkpoints as they try to leave

Do you suppose that may have something to do with things like

https://www.newsweek.com/evacuation-route-offered-fleeing-uk...

and

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/06/europe/ukraine-russia-inv...

?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#165

Post by SamPatt »

jjulius wrote: post #145
user3939382 wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you are conflating media and social media https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/25/ukraine-soldie... https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-snake-island-soldiers-russi... https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-sold... https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/24/russia-ukrai... I could go on, but you get the point. These were definitely fake stories propagated by the western media as part of thei…

Did you wanna include the part where outlets corrected themselves? Stories change - you do your best to verify, and then report the change once more information comes out. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/ukraine-island...

Media reporting falsehoods then later correcting them doesn't mean the media isn't reporting falsehoods.

Retractions always - ALWAYS - get less attention than the initial story.

They aren't in the business of spreading truth, they are a business with incentives to gain people's attention.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#166

Post by bewaretheirs »

JimBlackwood wrote: post #117
imwillofficial wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ghost of Kiev Snake Island Soldiers Dying Heroically Nuclear Reactor Shelled, Radiation Rising

For your third point I think you are mixing things up. Zaporizhzhia was shelled and afaik no increase in radiation was mentioned in any news I read. News also stressed that an office building was shelled, not the actual reactor. Chernobyl there were rumors about a nuclear waste depot being blown up and subsequent increase in radiation. However, it was always mentioned that this could be due to troop movement over con…

If the fighting had been a bit more intense at Zaporizhzhia, a repeat of Fukushima would not be out of the question (reactors shut down but not cold, unlucky shots take out backup power, cooling lost, meltdown from decay heat from fission products).

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#167

Post by s1artibartfast »

teaearlgraycold wrote: post #111
bostonsre wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are some examples of "propaganda" that proved to be false a day later?

Not what you're asking about, but I'd classify the filtering for what people want to hear as propaganda. Why is so much of the news I see about Ukrainian battle victories while Russians are clearly advancing on multiple fronts? There could easily be more coverage of Russian victories than Ukrainian if we were shown a random sample of phone footage. I'm not complaining - these things have a tangible effect on morale.…

Yeah, I ran into this and was was shocked to see information not just berried, but firewalled.

I wanted to understand the situation and searched "Ukrainian troop locations" in google, bing, DDG, and Yahoo.

One of the first times I have received no results in google. Absolutely blatant censorship.

Ostensibly, google doesn't want to provide intel to Russia, who has ample satellites and combat reports.

It seems a little too convenient that the major consequence is that Americans cant get any information that doesn't support the public narrative.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#168

Post by kspacewalk2 »

dekhn wrote: post #121
q1w2 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are also getting fresh soldiers. I saw a claim from a Canadian vet in Kyiv that 40,000 foreign fighters were already in Kyiv. The Canadian was part of a 500-man exclusively Canadian urban battalion. There was also a report on BBC that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia [1]. I've also been on Telegram channels helping…

Eventually the question becomes "if these guest fighters are successful, at what point do they consider going north through the contested border and attacking Russian (or, more likely, Belurussian) cities?"

As a Ukrainian whose relatives are being bombed and whose friends are currently enlisted - I sure hope they won't consider that at all. The only actions performed outside the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine should be in aid of stopping the invasion of Ukraine. Bombing troops and launch sites - yes. Attacking Russian servicemen wherever they can be reached - yes. Occupying even an inch of Russia - hell no.

Ukraine should even refrain from retaking Crimea militarily if things go well, unless it's virtually bloodless. This war has to end ASAP, and it won't end ASAP if Russians suddenly have a non-absurd reason to defend their land.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#169

Post by tablespoon »

Choco31415 wrote: post #99
bobowzki wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An army marches on its stomach.

I think the question is - is food being mobilized to Ukraine?

> I think the question is - is food being mobilized to Ukraine?

Is the problem with food existence or food transport? My impression is the food problems are in besieged cities.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#170

Post by s1artibartfast »

helpseeker wrote: post #135

Information from either side is to be taken with a grain of salt, although Ukraine is winning the social media ops-game hands down. I think since after the 1st week of troop movements it's pretty clear: - Russia aims at encircling cities, draining the resistance there, forcing them into negotiations and so that enemy combatants can evacuate into western Ukraine (like they did in Syria) - Ukraine aims at short-term lu…

>Information from either side is to be taken with a grain of salt, although Ukraine is winning the social media ops-game hands down.

At lest in the west where our information is censored to provide a Pro-Ukrainian perspective.

I can only guess at how the social media ops-game is playing out in Russia and China within their own propaganda bubble.

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