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California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

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Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#161

Post by astrange »

cmckn wrote: post #56
BitwiseFool wrote: post #6

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it." - Jeff Bezos This is a tricky article because I can tell it's using the term 'exodus' and 'myth' differently than I would. It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.

That Bezos quote is pretty dodgy, but to address your point: Ask anyone in Denver and they'll tell you there's a mass exodus out of Chicago. Or ask anyone in Miami and they'll tell you there's a mass exodus out of Philly. People move around. I think this is a similar phenomenon to buying a car and "seeing that car everywhere all of a sudden." It's all about perspective. In this sense, data is always better than anecd…

Crime anecdotes are famously totally wrong, people always say crime has gone up recently even though it's collapsed in most US cities even since 2000 or 2010.

What this actually means is that people are watching too much TV.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#162

Post by eplanit »

University of California doing "studies" to defend the state of California...right before a recall election of the Governor -- color me skeptical.

I personally know > 10 people who have left (in disgust) in the past 2 years. I have a sister in Texas who is getting personally wealthy selling houses to Californians moving there. She's been selling for > 30 years and has never seen an influx like this from a single state, ever. California even lost a seat in the US Congress due to population decline.[1]

[1] https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2021-04-26/census-dat...

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#163

Post by astrange »

snek_case wrote: post #147
rayiner wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The version of that argument I tend to see is more refined than that: https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2021/04/19/ . National Review just had an entire issue on the subject. The thrust of the argument is that what made California great was that it was a great place to move and raise kids in the suburbs with lots of opportunities. The changes in California are hitting those people the hardest. And those people…

I worked at big tech in California for a bit, and, anecdotally, all of my coworkers stated that they didn't plan to retire in California, because it's just so expensive it makes no economic sense. It seems the plan for many people who come in California to work at big tech is to make big money for some number of years and then move out. I ended up leaving, in part because I didn't love the culture there, and some of…

They're wrong about that. The reason California is expensive for them is because the state is set up to be easy to retire in - they're just paying for all the retired boomers. If they stay long enough, they'll get to exploit the next generation too.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#164

Post by tjr225 »

freedomben wrote: post #134
BitwiseFool wrote: post #6

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it." - Jeff Bezos This is a tricky article because I can tell it's using the term 'exodus' and 'myth' differently than I would. It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.

Idahoan here, previously lived in Utah. Just adding to your point. Both Idaho and Utah are becoming inundated with people from California. It's mind boggling how hard it is to find housing here. When we bought our last house we were repeatedly outbid by cash offers from California buyers. In my current neighborhood there have been 7 families that moved in during the last 12 months. One (us) from Utah, one from Texas,…

40 million people live in California. That’s more than any other state by about 10 million. That’s also nearly almost a sixth of our entire country.

Everyone everywhere in this country feels like it is getting inundated by Californians. Some more than others, sure.

I can see two or three cars with Cali plates right now from my stoop. More people will always be from there. I suspect this has been happening for a long time and just now for some reason people are noticing.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#165

Post by minikites »

>Similarly, the research found no evidence of "millionaire flight" from California and notes that the state continues to attract as much venture capital as all other U.S. states combined, despite the recent exodus of Hewlett-Packard and Oracle.

People won't even move states within the same country because of taxes, meaning they certainly won't leave the country if federal taxes were raised (a common argument against raising taxes). Therefore, we should dramatically raise taxes on the very wealthy and actually put that money to use improving society instead of letting a handful of billionaires uselessly hoard it. They're not going anywhere.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#166

Post by olegious »

okareaman wrote: post #48

As a native Californian, I'd be fine with more people moving out of California, especially the coastal areas. The surf spots are overcrowded compared to the days when I had the waves to myself. Then there's this: California man blasts Texas 'dystopia' in Op-Ed after moving to Austin https://www.mysanantonio.com/lifestyle/travel-outdoors/artic...

As someone that made the move from California to the Austin area- I don't regret it for a second.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#167

Post by kbrackbill »

One thing I'm interested in is, regardless of whether more californians are leaving or not, are californians driving up housing prices in the various obvious targets (oregon, idaho, montana, colorado, nevada)? I'm part of the "exodus" in that earlier this year I finally bailed on the bay area after living there my whole life for vegas, and the cost to buy a house here seems insane compared to renting and to similarly remote cities. Housing prices in the stereotypical california exodus places like Portland and Austin seem similarly wild. If californian emigration isn't responsible, then what is? Is it all just general demand for urban housing and are californians just a scapegoat?

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#168

Post by [deleted] »

deep-root wrote: post #44

A "back of the napkin" calculation seems to indicate there is no mass exodus. On mobile, but here is the typical annual CA pop change stats for the past decade, give or take: --Incoming-- - 400K domestic immigrants[1] - 180-200K international immigrants[2] - 450K births[4] Subtotal: ~1.1M --Outgoing-- - 600K domestic emigrants[1] - 250K deaths[4] - ?? intl emigrants (anyone know?) Subtotal: ~850K Typical annual net c…

[deleted]

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#169

Post by gkop »

thebradbain wrote: post #105
hpoe wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just my little data point but I moved into a sleepy little ID town that has a lot of people that have moved here from SoCal, and of the 5 people I asked "what brought all the way up to Idaho from California?" 4 of them commented on how expensive California was and the high cost of living. 3 of them also stated that they didn't like how things were happening in Cali. Again small anecdotal data point but take it for wh…

Well, it would make sense that the people who left California feel unhappy with California; Not that it's what you were saying, but just because it's likely that those who left the state are unahppy with it, that does not mean most people in California are unhappy with it. In fact, I love California so much that I buckled the popular media narrative and moved _from_ Texas _to_ California. Funnily enough, people talk…

Do the Californians have money when they go to Texas (I don’t know)? If yes, that could feel like a “big” migration from the Texas side.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#170

Post by unishark »

cmckn wrote: post #56
BitwiseFool wrote: post #6

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it." - Jeff Bezos This is a tricky article because I can tell it's using the term 'exodus' and 'myth' differently than I would. It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.

That Bezos quote is pretty dodgy, but to address your point: Ask anyone in Denver and they'll tell you there's a mass exodus out of Chicago. Or ask anyone in Miami and they'll tell you there's a mass exodus out of Philly. People move around. I think this is a similar phenomenon to buying a car and "seeing that car everywhere all of a sudden." It's all about perspective. In this sense, data is always better than anecd…

If locals are leaving a place and being replaced by international immigrants then it explains the anecdotes. Everyone is more likely to know more people that left a place than moved there.

Also it will show in other stats. People in other states tell me there is an exodus there from California or New England, and their reasoning is based on differences in truck rental prices going either direction, which international immigrants don't need but domestic migrants do.

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