Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

astanway.medium.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

161–170 of 223 posts

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#161

Post by [deleted] »

ryanmarsh wrote: post #74
ahepp wrote: post #66

>Those that chose Griddy, chose higher risk, which comes with high potential rewards but also high potential losses When I lived in the poor part of town, "energy deregulation" companies were always coming around, aggressively trying to get me to sign up on the spot. They never talked about risk, they just told me I could sign here to save $100s on my power bill. I asked them about the details and they just lied thro…

Griddy didn't have to beat the bricks like most REP's in Texas. Smart consumers aware of the risk beat a path to their door. Unfortunately, as with anything like this, the followers and fools soon showed up (reminiscent of $GME) and a good thing somehow suddenly became "a scam".

[deleted]

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#162

Post by rowland66 »

GCA10 wrote: post #104
ryanmarsh wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Griddy didn't have to beat the bricks like most REP's in Texas. Smart consumers aware of the risk beat a path to their door. Unfortunately, as with anything like this, the followers and fools soon showed up (reminiscent of $GME) and a good thing somehow suddenly became "a scam".

I'm not sure we can really say "smart consumers aware of the risk." Isn't it more like "Opportunistic customers who hoped the risks were immaterial beat a path . . . " Out of morbid curiosity, during a long drive this weekend, I listened to 20 minutes of an AM radio guy's pitch for some retirement annuity system that sounded quite sweet at first. As he kept talking, though, I realized that he was being very evasive a…

I think that it is called an immediate annuity. It is a standard insurance product that offers protection against outliving your assets. You pay a lump sum in return for a guaranteed income as long as you live. Yes, if you die early, the insurance company wins, if you live longer than expected, the insurance company looses.

I think these are more common in Europe where people will often take a lump sum pension payout at retirement, and buy an immediate annuity.

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#163

Post by pintxo »

nicoburns wrote: post #115
ahepp wrote: post #66

>Those that chose Griddy, chose higher risk, which comes with high potential rewards but also high potential losses When I lived in the poor part of town, "energy deregulation" companies were always coming around, aggressively trying to get me to sign up on the spot. They never talked about risk, they just told me I could sign here to save $100s on my power bill. I asked them about the details and they just lied thro…

> This article seems to suggest the answer is a fully automated smart home, with some kind of AI to intelligently manage your power usage. Sounds awesome, but I don't think that's ever going to be a reality outside the valley. It's not the answer yet. But I'd be very surprised if it wasn't the norm in developed nations in 10-20 years. It's an obvious response to inconsistent generation from renewables, and the techno…

Also, how is this going to be cost effective? I just had an offer to include smart home capabilities in my new home. Some 16k EUR for a very basic installation, with only a tiny part of the home being fully automated. My electricity bill is less than 1k/a on a fully renewable energy contract. using AI smart home technology seems to be far from an economical solution as of today. Prices for smart homes would need to fall 1-2 orders of magnitude for his to start making sense.

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#164

Post by paulgb »

majormajor wrote: post #121
paulgb wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I think especially so in industries the average person doesn’t understand well, like electricity spot markets.

The existence of hucksters is a big part of why regulation is created in the first place. If you have to "de"regulation something, ask why it was regulated in the first place!

I’m not an anti-regulation guy by any means, but I do think there are cases where too much regulation is bad for customers. I don’t know enough about Texas energy markets to say if it’s the case here, but for example the deregulation of airline markets in the US was almost certainly good for customers on net.

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#165

Post by bumby »

ryanmarsh wrote: post #146
GCA10 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure we can really say "smart consumers aware of the risk." Isn't it more like "Opportunistic customers who hoped the risks were immaterial beat a path . . . " Out of morbid curiosity, during a long drive this weekend, I listened to 20 minutes of an AM radio guy's pitch for some retirement annuity system that sounded quite sweet at first. As he kept talking, though, I realized that he was being very evasive a…

I consulted for a large existing REP to help analyze the market and suggest strategies for launching their own Griddy competitor brand. So when I say "smart consumers aware of the risk" that is exactly who the research showed the customer was. The initial customers were people perfectly capable of the arbitrage. They even had customers using IFTTT to turn up the thermostat (summer months) when prices would spike (in…

Can you elaborate on how the research was conducted and specifically how the risk was measured by consumers?

There’s an awful lot of research that implies humans are very poor estimators of low probability / high severity events

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#166

Post by bdavis__ »

griddy customer here. I entered into the contract of my own free will. $1/KW was in my mind as the highest it could go, and for me that was acceptable. So, about $100 a day is what I thought my downside was. Saved a lot over the last 3 years. On Sunday night, griddy was taking $100 payments from my bank account repeatedly. Given the forecast, I jumped on the web and moved to a different provider (I must stay with them for a month, if I leave earlier there is a $150 penalty). Total cost for electricity during this time, just under $700. My usual bill was $70 to $100. this consumer understood the risks. i knew what i was getting into. and i jumped when it became more expensive than i was willing to pay. those that say "changing providers is cheating", i understand your point. ny action was in my own self interest.

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#167

Post by nicoburns »

pintxo wrote: post #163
nicoburns wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This article seems to suggest the answer is a fully automated smart home, with some kind of AI to intelligently manage your power usage. Sounds awesome, but I don't think that's ever going to be a reality outside the valley. It's not the answer yet. But I'd be very surprised if it wasn't the norm in developed nations in 10-20 years. It's an obvious response to inconsistent generation from renewables, and the techno…

Also, how is this going to be cost effective? I just had an offer to include smart home capabilities in my new home. Some 16k EUR for a very basic installation, with only a tiny part of the home being fully automated. My electricity bill is less than 1k/a on a fully renewable energy contract. using AI smart home technology seems to be far from an economical solution as of today. Prices for smart homes would need to f…

> Prices for smart homes would need to fall 1-2 orders of magnitude for his to start making sense.

I mean, this seems pretty likely to me over a timescale of a few decades. Smart homes are currently a niche product for the rich. They've barely started on their journey to being mass-market products. That will look like the products you are already buying being smart-home capable because that's considered standard.

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#168

Post by nybble41 »

londons_explore wrote: post #28
Spivak wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you have this backwards. This isn't the power company shutting off your power. This is telling your agent (in this case Griddy) to stop buying power under some conditions that you define.

I understand... But in the eyes of the law, Griddy is your power company, and their equipment shutting off your supply might break a lot of laws about disconnecting people without giving the requisite notice, legal procedure, etc. Where do you draw the line? "Griddy, please turn my power off if the price goes above $1/kwh"... "Griddy, please turn the power off if I forget to pay the bill.", "Griddy, I'll take a $10/m…

If the property owner has a button to override the cut-off and turn the power back on then that should satisfy any legal requirements related to unilateral disconnection of power. The disconnect should happen on the customer's side anyway. The power company just needs to provide accurate information about the current price in a form that can be used by an automated switch. Important circuits could be placed on a separate panel with a higher cut-off point.

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#169

Post by SomewhatLikely »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #99

Griddy should have bought calls and passed along the premium cost and protection. I don’t know energy market options pricing, so maybe this is not viable. > the amount of money they are due as a result of this market design ($50 billion!!!) is truly staggering and disproportionate to the value created This is a screaming incentive for winterisation and energy storage. The premium is fine. It was mostly paid for by in…

Agreed on second point. The reward needs to be given today to incentivize future behavior. If market participants don't believe they will be rewarded they won't change their behavior.

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#170

Post by alasdair_ »

ryanmarsh wrote: post #146
GCA10 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure we can really say "smart consumers aware of the risk." Isn't it more like "Opportunistic customers who hoped the risks were immaterial beat a path . . . " Out of morbid curiosity, during a long drive this weekend, I listened to 20 minutes of an AM radio guy's pitch for some retirement annuity system that sounded quite sweet at first. As he kept talking, though, I realized that he was being very evasive a…

I consulted for a large existing REP to help analyze the market and suggest strategies for launching their own Griddy competitor brand. So when I say "smart consumers aware of the risk" that is exactly who the research showed the customer was. The initial customers were people perfectly capable of the arbitrage. They even had customers using IFTTT to turn up the thermostat (summer months) when prices would spike (in…

IFTTT doesn’t seem like the best solution to something that costs you an enormous amount of money if it fails. especially in a situation with potential power outages killing the box you were using at an inopportune moment.
Post reply on HN