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America’s aggressive use of sanctions endangers the dollar’s reign

economist.com

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Re: America’s aggressive use of sanctions endangers the dollar’s reign

#161

Post by jcranmer »

smallstepforman wrote: post #159
barrkel wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Russia annexes any Baltic states it's liable to trigger nuclear war. All the Baltic states are NATO members.

Russia could have annexed the Baltic states when they secceded in 91, but chose not to. From their perspective, they had enough of empire and grew tired of propping the periphery. There was no need for these states to join Nato, and they could have remained as independant partners benefitting from trade with 2 blocks. The fact they chose to move away from Russia has more to do with corruption than logic.

Russia's war with Georgia and annexation of Crimea rather vindicates the Baltic states' decision to join NATO. Russia has made it manifestly clear that it wants the right to interfere in any country's politics that hosts a sizable Russian minority, and that it is willing to bring in the tanks should the host country refuse.

Re: America’s aggressive use of sanctions endangers the dollar’s reign

#163

Post by jacobwilliamroy »

zozbot234 wrote: post #118
jacobwilliamroy wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The federal government is light-years ahead of whatever private citizens can get their hands on; 71% of americans are overweight or obese; 30% of americans have some kind of chronic pain. If a shooting war broke out between the federal government and private citizens, the National Guard would just steamroll right on through them like they were made of thin air. I think that the best way to exercise the second amendme…

> ...the National Guard would just steamroll right on through them... Even assuming that they could do this (which is plausibly quite wrong, as defense tactics can be very effective), what's the incentive? The people who serve in the National Guard are citizens themselves (who have sworn to uphold the Constitution) and every bit of effective defense makes it that much easier for them to defect while keeping plausible…

>what's the incentive?

I expect the federal government to invent one. If it worked for Iraqi Freedom, the Spanish American War, Vietnam, maybe it'll work in Wyoming. Otherwise, we already condition our kids to solve conflict through violence, first by beating them when they do things we don't appreciate, and then by sitting them down in front of the TV where they can watch and learn as their only adult role model saves the day by inflicting grievous bodily harm onto other people (superheroes, star wars, fortnite).

Also, war is a lot less personal these days. There are a dozen or so Air National Guard units with access to weaponized drones in the united states. The public didn't even flinch at the onboard camera movies coming back from iraq and afghanistan showing people being blown up in their pickup trucks and SUVs.

Re: America’s aggressive use of sanctions endangers the dollar’s reign

#164

Post by torstenvl »

DeonPenny wrote: post #72
taurath wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is this protection that the US provides other than ensuring the US would be drawn into a war between the EU and Russia? France has enough nukes to provide MAD protection.

Why would the US be drawn into that war? Why are we helping EU in the first place especially when they are russia main trading partners.

Because that's what being the leader of the free world means. The U.S. has the economic and military resources to give freedom a fighting chance of survival. If we choose not to counterbalance the influence of autocracies, that freedom won't last long.

Re: America’s aggressive use of sanctions endangers the dollar’s reign

#165

Post by m0llusk »

DeonPenny wrote: post #72
taurath wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is this protection that the US provides other than ensuring the US would be drawn into a war between the EU and Russia? France has enough nukes to provide MAD protection.

Why would the US be drawn into that war? Why are we helping EU in the first place especially when they are russia main trading partners.

Baltic states are great trading partners offering a range of highly valued products and services from white birch plywood that is ideal for laser cutting to security software development. If Russia moved on the Baltics the US would meet them at the border, NATO or not.

Re: America’s aggressive use of sanctions endangers the dollar’s reign

#166

Post by pm90 »

rayiner wrote: post #157
pm90 wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their incentive would be a manufactured one, painting the citizenry as part of some conspiracy/extreme party etc. Just look at how many Republican news outlets continuously portray the other side as extreme and crazy and dangerous. Just having possession of armed weapons makes absolutely no difference to a modern, well equipped American military force. We’re talking about Armored Personal Carriers and Tanks rolling t…

> We’re talking about Armored Personal Carriers and Tanks rolling through cities, all communications being monitored or cut off. Assad literally used tanks against the civil uprising, and wasn’t able to stop it. (And doing so caused part of the army to defect.) Gaddafi was killed by the National Liberation Army, which initially armed itself by capturing tanks and weapons from military stockpiles.

Was either the Libyan or Syrian populace armed to the teeth? Did the availability of weapons (or the lack thereof) have any impact on what happened?

Comparing Syrian and Libyan military forces to American ones is also a stretch. We’re talking about orders of magnitudes of difference in armaments and intelligence.

Re: America’s aggressive use of sanctions endangers the dollar’s reign

#167

Post by Jedi72 »

elfexec wrote: post #80
sschueller wrote: post #2

For the rest of the world this is a good thing. Why would the United States be the one to decide if Germany is allowed to build a pipeline to Russia or not? Image if it was Germany that used sanctions to prevent the US from building a pipeline to Mexico. Would you be ok with that?

> Why would the United States be the one to decide if Germany is allowed to build a pipeline to Russia or not? Because the US is the sole guarantor of German sovereignty. It's why the US has tens of thousands of troops in germany. It's why US decides if and how much oil/gas Japan or South Korea gets from Russia. It's why the US decides if the Dutch get to sell ASML semiconductor equipment to China. It's why the US di…

It's more like gangsters providing "protection" to local businesses. When it comes to the US, you have no choice in the matter.

Re: America’s aggressive use of sanctions endangers the dollar’s reign

#168

Post by mark_l_watson »

shostack wrote: post #97
mark_l_watson wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it would put us on par with other countries, we would lose a nice advantage. Worst case scenario would be a sharp economic decline, but I optimistically think it would be a slow leveling out, a slow decline in consumer purchasing power, limit government expenditures, etc. But, I am not at all sure what will happen.

Do you think that hostile foreign nations are actively trying to end the run of the petrodollar?

I think the point of the original article is yes, it is in some other countries interests to end the dollar being the sole reserve currency.

On the other hand, the USA provides stability, so everyone who is rational in the world should want any transition to be slow. The whole world is in this together, I think we prosper together, or suffer together. Let’s hope for the first option.

Re: America’s aggressive use of sanctions endangers the dollar’s reign

#169

Post by m0zg »

It's not about whether dollar sucks in absolute terms. It's about whether it sucks less than other currencies. It's tied to the largest economy in the world, and the strongest military in the world (importantly, including the strongest navy as well), by quite a margin, and as such, it's not going anywhere. You don't need to run faster than the bear, you just need to run faster than the other guy.

Re: America’s aggressive use of sanctions endangers the dollar’s reign

#170

Post by m0zg »

logicchains wrote: post #136
jayd16 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no global government so there's no global court. The global/international level is considered anarchy.

Anarchy means no ruler, not no rules.

There are no "rules" on the international stage. There is no way to impose any rules on a sovereign state. As such, what you perceive as "rules" are merely the lowest energy states that will change when the sovereign state decides that it doesn't want to abide by them anymore, and there's not a single thing anyone can do about that short of imposing sanctions or declaring a war. "International law" is a fictional construct, since there can't be any enforcement.
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