Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

America’s aggressive use of sanctions endangers the dollar’s reign

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

71–80 of 326 posts

Re: America’s aggressive use of sanctions endangers the dollar’s reign

#71

Post by zozbot234 »

rayiner wrote: post #67
geggam wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now you are bumping on the reason I think the founders put the 2nd amendment in the bill of rights. Govts have to be balanced at some point by the will of the people

Of course that’s the reason. Different people use different euphemisms, for the same reason we do now. (“Defend against tyranny.”) But we’re talking about an amendment the founders wrote shortly after they took up arms to overthrow their government. It’s clear what they were talking about: https://www.nationalreview.com/2015/04/second-amendment-hist... > Before a standing army can rule, the people must be disarmed; a…

Note, the point is not to overthrow the government in any real sense, but rather to make it incredibly costly and perhaps outright infeasible for the government to actively use state-organized violence against its own people, as dictatorships everywhere are wont to do. Combine an armed populace with a strong tradition of being loyal to the Constitution and its principles first and foremost, even in the context of a standing army or similar, and it's especially clear what the 2nd Amendment was supposed to achieve.

Re: America’s aggressive use of sanctions endangers the dollar’s reign

#72

Post by DeonPenny »

taurath wrote: post #52
jariel wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Why would the United States be the one to decide if Germany is allowed to build a pipeline to Russia or not?" Because America provides defence for Germany, and Russia has 1000 nuclear warheads pointed at Germany, the US and others, and they are an antagonising state, actively trying to disrupt the governments in Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Ukraine, etc. All these issues are quite fundamentally related, so it matters…

What is this protection that the US provides other than ensuring the US would be drawn into a war between the EU and Russia? France has enough nukes to provide MAD protection.

Why would the US be drawn into that war? Why are we helping EU in the first place especially when they are russia main trading partners.

Re: America’s aggressive use of sanctions endangers the dollar’s reign

#73

Post by DeonPenny »

LatteLazy wrote: post #14
aazaa wrote: post #11

The lack of any viable alternative has kept the dollar in its current dominant position. That alternative won't exactly announce itself so that US policymakers can rationally decide to change course about the weaponization of money. It will instead, sneak up on the country in the form of weird little experiments that don't seem worth the time and effort to track or regulate. By the time one of them becomes the obviou…

Isn't the answer the euro? Stable, inflation proof, light or no sanctions. As brexit proceeds and more financial services move to mainland Europe, you won't even have to worry about the brits messing with it... I seem to remember the EU agreeing to setup a psudo bank to deal direct with Iran so they can bypass restrictions on trade? Edit: here it is! https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/eu-mechanism-for-...

Definitely not the Euro. Its not only not inflation proof infact because poorer country will need higher inflation that's exactly whats going to happen. It's not stable, Brexit, Greece, spain, italy have all gone through a lot of recessions. Not to mention they don't have a central bond market. The Euro can't really ever be a replacement.

Re: America’s aggressive use of sanctions endangers the dollar’s reign

#74

Post by nine_zeros »

shostack wrote: post #41
mark_l_watson wrote: post #10

James Rikard (author of Currency Wars) in his newest book Aftermath predicts that the dollar's reserve currency run may soon be over, and special drawing rights (SDR) reserve currency might only be 1/3 dollars. I think he is probably correct on this prediction but maybe not on another prediction: currencies like China's and Russia's might soon be 20% backed by gold. He makes the point that there is no need for 100% b…

What would happen to life in the US if the dollar was no longer the global reserve currency?

Costs will be very high.

Have you ever been to third world countries and wondered why their shopkeepers, barbers, regular service people don't live in houses with good materials?

Because its too expensive for them. That expensiveness will come here to the US

Re: America’s aggressive use of sanctions endangers the dollar’s reign

#75

Post by empath75 »

philwelch wrote: post #6
IfOnlyYouKnew wrote: post #3

It also endangers the basic principle of a rules-based, open world. If you think that's a good idea, imagine what happens to an economy when civil law and contracts are not enforced, even without any threat of violence. To pick just one example: if you're trying to get a loan to build a factory or buy a house, it's good for you that there are laws and trusted courts that would cause you a whole lot of pain if you fai…

There's no such thing as a rules-based, open world. International relations is a state of anarchy and perpetual conflict that only fleetingly resembles peace during those periods where there's a global hegemon that can enforce those "rules". Within a country, those courts are the hegemon. "Each country having a strong interest in remaining within that system that outweighs any short-term benefits from skirting its re…

Doesn’t have to be, just have to disarm the world powers and create a one world government. I’m sure everyone will be fine with that.

Re: America’s aggressive use of sanctions endangers the dollar’s reign

#76

Post by fancyfish »

tjenkinsqs wrote: post #47

I prefer sanctions a thousand times over war. Don't we have enough of the endless wars (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc. from the last 2 administrations?

We have enough of the endless wars AND endless sanctions. Framing it as a dichotomy between the two unnecessarily constrains the debate. Framing and constraining the realm of options is a very successful political strategy.

Re: America’s aggressive use of sanctions endangers the dollar’s reign

#77

Post by DeonPenny »

geggam wrote: post #20

Given the amount of global debt does it really matter ? https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/13/economy/global-debt-record/in... Its like the world is playing musical chairs and at some point the music will stop and not everyone will have a seat

Thats not how global debt works.

Re: America’s aggressive use of sanctions endangers the dollar’s reign

#78

Post by empath75 »

shostack wrote: post #41
mark_l_watson wrote: post #10

James Rikard (author of Currency Wars) in his newest book Aftermath predicts that the dollar's reserve currency run may soon be over, and special drawing rights (SDR) reserve currency might only be 1/3 dollars. I think he is probably correct on this prediction but maybe not on another prediction: currencies like China's and Russia's might soon be 20% backed by gold. He makes the point that there is no need for 100% b…

What would happen to life in the US if the dollar was no longer the global reserve currency?

I think the main immediately recognizable change would be a slide in dollar denominated assets— houses, stocks, bonds, etc, as countries and corporations and crime syndicates stop using the US as a safe place to invest their wealth. Though that may go along with inflation, so it might be hard to tell it’s happening right away.

Re: America’s aggressive use of sanctions endangers the dollar’s reign

#79

Post by Meekro »

Spooky23 wrote: post #19
wavefunction wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US opposition to a pipeline to Russia is confined to a small group of people who are strangely very friendly to Russia on all other matters. There is no widespread or popular opposition to Germany building a pipeline to Russia in the United States. This doesn't really treat with the dollar-denominated world economy but I wanted to point this out to differentiate the current irrational foreign policy of the US governm…

It isn’t in the US or NATO interest for Germany to be dependent on Russian oil. Current US policy, to the extent that we have policy today, is a whole other matter.

Why is becoming dependent on US-supplied liquefied natural gas any better? If Germany has two or more reliable suppliers of natural gas (Russia and US), neither one can extort them by threatening to flip the switch.

Re: America’s aggressive use of sanctions endangers the dollar’s reign

#80

Post by elfexec »

sschueller wrote: post #2

For the rest of the world this is a good thing. Why would the United States be the one to decide if Germany is allowed to build a pipeline to Russia or not? Image if it was Germany that used sanctions to prevent the US from building a pipeline to Mexico. Would you be ok with that?

> Why would the United States be the one to decide if Germany is allowed to build a pipeline to Russia or not?

Because the US is the sole guarantor of German sovereignty. It's why the US has tens of thousands of troops in germany. It's why US decides if and how much oil/gas Japan or South Korea gets from Russia. It's why the US decides if the Dutch get to sell ASML semiconductor equipment to China. It's why the US dictates whether Canada arrests a chinese executive. Pax Americana. Protection doesn't come cheap. It certainly isn't free.

> Image if it was Germany that used sanctions to prevent the US from building a pipeline to Mexico. Would you be ok with that?

Of course not, but germany is in no position to dictate anything to the US. That's the point. If germany had tens of thousands of troops stationed in the US and provided safety to the US and mexico was germany's enemy, then germany would prevent the US from doing business with mexico.

I'm not saying it's right or moral. It's just basic geopolitics. If you depend on another nation for your safety and host tens of thousands of their troops in your country, you are really not a sovereign nation and hence don't have the luxury of making all the decisions on your own.

Post reply on HN