Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming • Hacker News Board

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#161

Post by marcosdumay » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 4:57 PM UTC

Merrill wrote: post #93

corodra wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look, I'm just about a complete package when it comes to being an asshole. My history on HN is more than enough to prove that. But, I don't' think humans are that useless to where they're going to fail in fixing this. This can be reversed and we're in the beginning stages. The hole in the ozone layer was deemed doomed and without repair. NASA has it in track on being fully recovered in around 2060 since we stopped us…

The ozone hole was mostly fixed by changing refrigerants. This was fought at first until it became apparent that substitute refrigerants could be produced. At that point, the refrigerant manufacturers and the manufacturers of air conditioning equipment saw that there was a pot of gold in the transition and dropped their opposition. The consumer paid for it, but consumers are often led astray and aren't organized enou…

> This was fought at first until it became apparent that substitute refrigerants could be produced.

You mean that once costs become reasonable people moved fast and in concert to resolve the problem?

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#162

Post by Cshelton » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 5:01 PM UTC

mxschumacher wrote: post #100

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

I completely disagree.

While I do not believe we have hit peak oil yet, I do not believe we are far off nor will oil and gas demand continue to grow for "a long time".

- The personal transportation industry will go through the biggest change it ever has in the next decade. Bigger than horse + buggy -> automobiles. An electric car will be cheaper to operate and maintain. Production of EVs will proliferate even countries like China (already happening), India (already happening), and others. Autonomous ride networks, especially in dense urban areas, will also take a massive market share. The need for individuals to own vehicles will decrease in urban and even suburban environments. Couple that with almost any good or service you need being delivered to your door "instantly", the vehicle is no longer needed. The rise of remote working will also contribute to this. Yes, some people like their SUVs/Trucks, but that will pail in comparison to the reduction elsewhere.

- Air travel will grow, assuming economic stability of course. Towards the end of the decade, we will also have short length, all electric aircraft operating. That will shore up the growth of air travel in regards to the demand for more oil.

- Natural Gas growth long term... no way. Not happening. Within this decade, we will see the price of solar and batteries drop to levels never before imagined. Production and efficiency will also greatly increase. We have only just begun. You will have distributed "grids", where many more people are generating their own power, and borrowing from their neighbor when necessary. BRIC countries will also be leading on adopting these types of grids as well, especially in areas where the grid is not stable/doesn't even exist. See Puerto Rico. They have only just begun.

- Yes, the quality of life across the world is getting better. That means the demand for alternative energy and the Capability to pay for the infrastructure is ALSO increasing. This will move the growth needle forward for renewable energy. This will be your peak oil. Your peak oil will be in the past once you see entire areas of housing in BRIC countries running on Solar/batteries. Goodbye. Oil.

Also, I think humanity will do the right thing as a whole. Governments will STOP subsidizing oil like they do today. It will become much more expensive. Peak oil will be in the past at this point as well.

So go on, go invest in your oil companies and throw your arms in the air saying "yes, but it's not my problem, I'm just making money". War profiteers say the same thing. They never come out on the right side of the history book. Neither will you. Oil and Gas will NOT have growth for a long time.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#163

Post by blisterpeanuts » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 5:03 PM UTC

cr0sh wrote: post #158

bilbo0s wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What was eye opening to me is that, if the GP is to be believed, is that people keep buying F150s? Clearly, not everyone believes in the idea of climate change. (In fact, if that factoid is correct, a plurality of automobile consumers don't? That's a "wow" moment for me.)

Something to keep in mind also is that today's F150 is not the same as "yesterday's" F150. Today's F150 is made out of mostly aluminum - not steel. Today's F150 only comes in 4 and 6 cylinder models. 8 cylinder was dropped, and I think the smaller engines are turbocharged to make up for the difference (what if anything this does for emissions or fuel usage, I am not certain). There are probably more than a few other…

In addition, Ford has announced an electric version of the F150 for 2021. Several other makers, including Tesla, are planning or already producing electric SUV's and trucks.

Should be interesting to see the adoption rates in urban settings. Rural would be more difficult for long haul applications, but a contractor traveling 50-100 miles a day in a metropolitan area could easily go electric.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#164

Post by hodder » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 5:05 PM UTC

pfortuny wrote: post #65

Funny how at the same time the Norwegian Government Fund is divesting from oil and gas exploration[1]. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/08/norways-1tn-we...

Diversification.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#165

Post by matthewdgreen » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 5:07 PM UTC

bluedevil2k wrote: post #8

I think it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change and any changes we enact to counteract it. We should work from an assumption that all the oil in the ground is going to be dug up and burned. It's too much money for some of these countries to ignore - the article mentions Guyana, a poor country that now has a way to print money. It also mentiones Venezuela, the country wi…

Not much interest in whale oil as a fuel anymore. When people find a replacement, they switch to it. The hope (prayer) is that renewable prices will fall to a tiny fraction of oil exploration/extraction/distribution costs that the idea of using it as a mass fuel is quaint. It's likely to happen, too -- just not clear if it'll happen fast enough.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#166

Post by shiftpgdn » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 5:09 PM UTC

corodra wrote: post #90

ourlordcaffeine wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they'll make their money from lithium and battery manufacturing This isn't much of a problem though I think? It would be a problem if they bought mining rights then refused to mine causing shortages of raw materials needed for renewable tech.

As a capitalist, I want to own all the lithium mining rights in the world. I dictate the price and flow when I seem fit. Like De Beers in blood diamonds... cough, sorry, "ethically sourced diamonds". As a consumer, I want many, many capitalists owning different lithium mining rights in the world. They fight each other to lower the price and be competitive. Then find cheaper and cheaper ways to obtain lithium or even…

Lithium is easily sustainable to mine and there are wildly ample amounts of reserves in the US. Almost all negative articles about vehicle electrification are hit pieces that intentionally conflate lithium and rare earth materials like Cobalt.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#167

Post by jliptzin » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 5:14 PM UTC

mxschumacher wrote: post #100

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

Tesla is coming out with an all electric pick-up and semi. Hopefully others will follow. But at least a few years before mainstream uptake.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#168

Post by marcosdumay » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 5:15 PM UTC

shantly wrote: post #84

cartoonworld wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There another angle to this--USA provides vast sums of other monetary aid to oil production. Since it has been a (or perhaps the ) strategic commodity, nationally, since WWI our foreign policy is in part directed at those supplies. We expend much military might in the effort to acquire and maintain the alliances and security of the transportation and production of the stuff. A lot of the geopolitical game in the midd…

Hm. That actually raises a good point—how long until militaries can operate without gasoline and diesel? Or even significantly reduce their use? Hard to imagine anything competing with petroleum there in the mid-term future, which mean subsidized production will continue to be necessary to any state that wants to be able to self-sufficiently field an army worth having at all. I mean I guess there's ethanol from plant…

Well, there exist carbon capture and artificial fuels. I imagine those will take over crop ethanol as soon as solar gets cheap, for no other reason than that one can extract 100 times more fuel from the same land and there is no upkeep of a biologic system.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#169

Post by infamia » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 5:16 PM UTC

corodra wrote: post #91

nickik wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To be fair, I think the "peak oil scare" was good. That's when we all started to focus and take renewables seriously. I No not really. It made me focus on looking into the 'peak oil' claims and I then realized that was major nonsense and people who proclaim it should not be taken seriously and are instantly discredited in anything they say. Peak oil was a major distraction about the actual issues that should have b…

"The house is burning! The house is burning!" A child laughs. Parents take the child out of the house quickly in fear. After a moment a plane crashes into the house, obliterating it. While yes, the child was full of shit. It still led to something marginally good. Maybe the parents should have left him in the house because he's a little shit. That might make the situation better. But that's an ethics question I don't…

The problem with this is when a group cries wolf, are the people going to continue to listen? Eventually, Machiavellian tactics turn your credibility to mud. You end up in a place where folks don't believe anything a group says. Then you're stuck shaking your fist at "the stupid general" public when your organization's tactics are largely to blame. This is where both sides of the environmental discussion have ended up and why the issue is so polarized (in part).

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#170

Post by NeedMoreTea » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 5:17 PM UTC

mxschumacher wrote: post #145

NeedMoreTea wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If enough divest from Exxon they become a penny share, Greenpeace could buy them purely to sit the reserves away from use. Ridiculous, but being bought as the share price drops low enough is not. Every time a currency drops markedly businesses there are exposed to another round of international buyouts. Similarly regulation and impact fines and levies will come. Maybe Exxon gets bought by someone looking to asset str…

"The Greenpeace buying Exxon for pennies" scenario is deeply unrealistic for the moment. It's like finding $295.000.000.000 on the street. Exxon doesn't change if it's share price declines, the lower the price goes, the more attractive the opportunity from a risk-reward perspective. With pension funds and hedge funds hungry for yields, somebody will always buy. To go with your police scenario: In the oil industry, th…

Of course it is - yet governments and investments are showing early signs of divestment, including by pension schemes. If regulations to require carbon impact become a consideration in investment, or market listing - there's early signs some are thinking in those directions - then those pension schemes will start voting inconveniently or divest more significantly. If one of the top 5 blocs bakes climate into their approach trade, things could change fast.

Exxon have the mass that it will take a great deal to actually impact, but large industries have been abolished or turned into niche industry before. No reason to believe it won't happen again.