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Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

nytimes.com

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Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#61

Post by tomatotomato37 »

mdorazio wrote: post #46
corodra wrote: post #42

I have a hard time taking this article too seriously. >not coming from the usual producers, but from Brazil, Canada, Norway and Guyana — countries that are either not known for oil or whose production has been lackluster in recent years. Canada ranks 5 in oil exports, Norway 13, Brazil 21. Sure, Guyana belongs in that sentence. But... uh, okay? Rank 5 is "not usual"? Next part, wtf do you expect? Oil companies are go…

I’m in general agreement with you. If governments actually cared about ending ending oil dominance they would continually increase taxes on it to financially force consumers and industry to pursue alternatives. And then use all of those tax revenues to fund renewables, public transit, and climate repair technologies. Outside of a few countries this isn’t even close to what happens in reality. Everyone will continue t…

>And then use all of those tax revenues to fund renewables, public transit, and climate repair technologies

And what happens when those revenues are threatened by people responding to the incentives and cutting out oil? Any money earned by environmental tax needs to go 100% into matching environmental restoration program with a hard limit defined that decommissions the program once the incentive is "complete" with acknowledgment that this is the preferred result. Otherwise you get ridiculous pervasive incentives in government that don't fix the problem and destabilize politics further

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#62

Post by samatman »

tomp wrote: post #20
bluedevil2k wrote: post #8

I think it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change and any changes we enact to counteract it. We should work from an assumption that all the oil in the ground is going to be dug up and burned. It's too much money for some of these countries to ignore - the article mentions Guyana, a poor country that now has a way to print money. It also mentiones Venezuela, the country wi…

That would be a catastrophe. Basically all oxygen in the atmosphere is a result of photosynthesis, which (combined with animals breathing) is a closed cycle ( edit: in terms of mass, not energy) unless some of the resulting biomass (glucose) is buried underground (as oil and/or coal). Digging up and burning all fossil fuels would consume all oxygen in the atmosphere... let's hope that at least some of it is buried so…

Photosynthesis is an open cycle, powered by the nuclear fusion reactor at the heart of the Solar System.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#63

Post by cartoonworld »

rcMgD2BwE72F wrote: post #52
mr__y wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is an "easy" solution to this problem - introduce a new (preferably renewable) energy source that is an order of magnitude cheaper than oil.

It already exists in the form of Solar/Wind + batteries + EV. Also, as price decrease for this combo, tax fossil fuels for all the damages caused to the environment (taxes to be used to help people switch to renewable energy, and for this transition only otherwise they won't support that tax).

There another angle to this--USA provides vast sums of other monetary aid to oil production.

Since it has been a (or perhaps the) strategic commodity, nationally, since WWI our foreign policy is in part directed at those supplies. We expend much military might in the effort to acquire and maintain the alliances and security of the transportation and production of the stuff.

A lot of the geopolitical game in the middle east is about the oil. Not "We're gonna take over your country and take it it!" exactly, but the Suez Canal, the Straits of Hormuz, international shipping lanes, and current geopolitical need for a gas pipeline to supply natural gas to Europe drives a lot of jockeying, international conflict, and of course, US strategic military bases, of which there are many.

Also I read in the news that some government official put boots are on the ground to protect a Saudi oil field (?...!)

So my response to your comment is: "Yes!" however, there will be a long political battle with an absurdly well funded opposition for it.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#64

Post by crispyambulance »

eloff wrote: post #48
corodra wrote: post #42

I have a hard time taking this article too seriously. >not coming from the usual producers, but from Brazil, Canada, Norway and Guyana — countries that are either not known for oil or whose production has been lackluster in recent years. Canada ranks 5 in oil exports, Norway 13, Brazil 21. Sure, Guyana belongs in that sentence. But... uh, okay? Rank 5 is "not usual"? Next part, wtf do you expect? Oil companies are go…

Also contributing probably is the rising risk that if you don't pump that oil as fast as possible and sell it now, you might never be able to sell it. This is weighing on the Saudi Aramco IPO. Although probably not as much as the general opaque and untrustworthy reports from the Saudis as to how much oil they have left. We used to worry about peak oil, where a supply crunch would cause the price to skyrocket. Now it'…

I think the peak in "peak oil" is a very wide peak with a lot of noise in it. That makes it easy for certain people to make-believe it's not going to happen. But it is... we just might not be able to predict which decade with certainty.

Perhaps this is a kind of an intelligence test for human civilization. Can we stop the global guzzling of petroleum resources before there's a profound ecological and economic shock? I think not.

There's no "free-refill" of oil unless we all go extinct, get covered by sediment for a million years before we're liquified to petroleum.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#66

Post by acidburnNSA »

milesward wrote: post #56
bluedevil2k wrote: post #8

I think it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change and any changes we enact to counteract it. We should work from an assumption that all the oil in the ground is going to be dug up and burned. It's too much money for some of these countries to ignore - the article mentions Guyana, a poor country that now has a way to print money. It also mentiones Venezuela, the country wi…

Nope, not if solar/batteries get cheaper: it won't be worth digging up

As the generators have gotten cheaper, there's some indication that total energy costs have increased because of the cost of dealing with the intermittent nature of wind and solar. So for economics one must look well beyond levelized cost of electricity nowadays.

If indeed energy storage costs dominate beyond 40% renewable penetration (total energy) then the exponential curve we see today at the 5% level will likely level off.

In 2018 carbon emissions increased by 2% worldwide even though renewables grew by 15%.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#67

Post by neuronic »

eej71 wrote: post #36
neuronic wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you suggesting that growth is infinite?

Not quite - but what makes us so successful aren't the resources themselves but our (nearly) endless ability to be creative, to learn, to understand, to come up with new ways to make use of those finite resource. In a sense, the effective supply of oil has increased thanks to our increase in the supply of knowledge. I expect that to continue for many lifetimes to come.

Then the solution will have be different than stopping to use oil but mitigate its negative effects.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#68

Post by christophilus »

corodra wrote: post #42

I have a hard time taking this article too seriously. >not coming from the usual producers, but from Brazil, Canada, Norway and Guyana — countries that are either not known for oil or whose production has been lackluster in recent years. Canada ranks 5 in oil exports, Norway 13, Brazil 21. Sure, Guyana belongs in that sentence. But... uh, okay? Rank 5 is "not usual"? Next part, wtf do you expect? Oil companies are go…

Exactly right. Incentive caused bias is one of the strongest forces in economics.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#69

Post by eej71 »

SuoDuanDao wrote: post #50
eej71 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure I understand how they can be both highly subsidized and yet highly taxed at the same time.

extraction companies are taxed or owned outright, end products are subsidized.

Sounds like it will just net out.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#70

Post by perfunctory »

corodra wrote: post #42

I have a hard time taking this article too seriously. >not coming from the usual producers, but from Brazil, Canada, Norway and Guyana — countries that are either not known for oil or whose production has been lackluster in recent years. Canada ranks 5 in oil exports, Norway 13, Brazil 21. Sure, Guyana belongs in that sentence. But... uh, okay? Rank 5 is "not usual"? Next part, wtf do you expect? Oil companies are go…

> A lot more needs to happen to end oil's stranglehold.

So what's your plan? Honest question. No sarcasm. How do we get from words to action?

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