Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill • Hacker News Board

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#161

Post by euix » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 2:20 PM UTC

If push comes to shove Beijing will kill the "not-so-golden-now goose". Especially now that Xi has effectively consolidated control over the coercive forces of the Chinese state. As long as the security and the army is with him it will work. Worse case the SAR region is dissolved and a party official is sent to govern directly. A lot of people said if Beijing cracked down in '89 that would be the end of the regime but that never happened. Obviously there are parallels and differences but overall I see Hong Kong as being at least one order of magnitude less severe than Beijing, then even some party official's kids were protesting and they got rolled over with tanks all the same.

I can see where the protestors are coming from, for them, its like living in a world you increasingly don't understand and is alien. But at the same time, I think internally they have to know this protest is just an outward manifestation of fatalism, "shattering like a jewel". If I were a youth in Hong Kong, I either find a way to immigrate or find a way to integrate.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#162

Post by nailer » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 2:21 PM UTC

i_am_proteus wrote: post #133

nailer wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hong Kong needs people in the PRC to start demanding their own representation. The CCP has might, but not enough to take on the Chinese people a second time. You can't be a people's republic if the people didn't vote for you.

Is this sarcasm? While no authoritarian government can exist with no consent of the government, the PRC has no legal vehicle for citizens to disagree with the state.

Why would it be sarcasm?

> PRC has no legal vehicle for citizens to disagree with the state.

Yes that's true. There should be one. People in Beijing and Shanghai and everywhere else deserve leaders that actually represent them too. Do you think otherwise?

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#163

Post by rayiner » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 2:25 PM UTC

mikeash wrote: post #113

bouncycastle wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

History is littered with graveyards upon graveyards of violent struggles for independance that didn't end up so well. Meanwhile, in the modern times, peaceful protests can being down even nuclear armed superpowers as we've seen in the 80s. Take a look https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_revolutions_and_rebell...

And peaceful protestors can also be massacred and completely fail to bring about any change. Peaceful protests can work sometimes. Other times they do nothing. Same with armed resistance. Declaring one or the other to be the only possible way to bring about change is in direct contradiction to the facts.

And protest movements don’t always need to be all violent or all peaceful. School children are taught about Nelson Mandela peacefully bringing down Apartheid. But there is a reason the logo of the ANC is a hand holding a spear and shield. Mandela co-founded the military arm of the ANC: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umkhonto_we_Sizwe.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#164

Post by sametmax » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 2:32 PM UTC

justaguyhere wrote: post #111

tobtoh wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would argue that Beijing didn't anticipate the resolve of the protestors, but they would certainly know about and endorse Lam's backdown. China is happy to play the long game - they apply pressure to HK to bring them inline with China, people protest, they back of a little, but not all the way. They wait ... then apply pressure again. The idea is that by 2047 when the 'one country, two systems' arrangement expires,…

each time, HK will lose a few more rights they used to have. Very likely. Sucks for HK people though :( Same story everywhere - nothing much changed after the Arab spring protests, for example. As impressive as they are, how long can Hong Kong people keep up this level of protests? Beijing can keep the pressure forever and play the long game

It works in our countries too. Try to pass a terrible bill. Get rejected. Try again. Rejected. Again. Again. Again. They only have to get it through once, since laws are very rarely removed, only added.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#165

Post by ck425 » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 2:37 PM UTC

dirtyid wrote: post #2

I don't think Beijing anticipated or endorsed this. In context of Lams leaked resignation remarks yesterday, it looks like Lam is going rogue. She's setting herself up to be replaced via disobedience, because all signs pointed to Emergency Regulations Ordinance being invoked if protest continues. Her legacy is already ruined, but I think she doesn't have the stomach to double down that far. Beijing specifically instr…

If that's the case what happens to her personally? I read that her family has british passports, will she have to flee?

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#166

Post by oh_sigh » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 2:41 PM UTC

devchix wrote: post #114

jplayer01 wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The non-violent protest thing seems like a myth that needs to be taken out back and shot, violently. We've seen for decades what they accomplish - absolutely nothing. It reminds me of this. https://theconversation.com/the-forgotten-violence-that-help...

This NPR podcast/article argues different. "...found that major nonviolent campaigns are successful 53% of the time, while violent campaigns are successful only 26% of the time." The Protest Tipping Point (podcast): https://www.npr.org/2019/06/25/736007317/the-protest-tipping... The Magic Number Behind Protests : https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2019/06/25/735536434/the-...

That might just mean that violent protests are deployed too widely. It's impossible to say in unique situations whether violence or nonviolence will fare better.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#167

Post by tony » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 2:49 PM UTC

odiroot wrote: post #155

tony wrote: post #55

Random: Did you know Guangzhou (Canton) was briefly capital of China back in the day? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_(1912%E2%80%... There's an important political figure in the history of modern China: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_Yat-sen He studied medicine in HK. He lived in Hawaii for a time [1]. He had a political philosophy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Principles_of_the_People To m…

> To my surprise I found Sun Yat-sen is still revered in China. He was one of the most important figures that helped to end the Qing Dynasty. Of course he's revered by communists.

But Sun Yat-Sen is the founder of Kuomintang, an adversary to the communist party. He's revered in TW too.

Doesn't that imply legitimacy to the three principles?

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#168

Post by tony » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 2:50 PM UTC

teddyh wrote: post #159

tony wrote: post #55

Random: Did you know Guangzhou (Canton) was briefly capital of China back in the day? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_(1912%E2%80%... There's an important political figure in the history of modern China: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_Yat-sen He studied medicine in HK. He lived in Hawaii for a time [1]. He had a political philosophy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Principles_of_the_People To m…

Extra History did a series of 5 10-minute videos about Sun Yat-sen: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLhyKYa0YJ_5AsEQ8iuHDn...

Nice!

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#169

Post by StreamBright » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 2:59 PM UTC

i_am_proteus wrote: post #143

coldtea wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huh? If we're strict, it has plenty of avenues, including courts and elections [1]. They might be nominal, but legally they do exist and operate: [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_China

Elections are meaningless if the public can't decide who runs.

You are too hard on US elections. People wanted Bernie and got HRC.

Re: Hong Kong leader to announce formal withdrawal of extradition bill

#170

Post by my_username_is_ » Wed, Sep 04, 2019, 3:05 PM UTC

phkahler wrote: post #44

mytailorisrich wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that some of these demands are unrealistic and some are downright unreasonable. Full democracy is a legitimate demand but one that you need to be extremely optimistic, to say the least, to believe that the central government will agree to budge on. On the other hand, demands regarding rioting are unreasonable. There objectively has been rioting going on and no government will accept to send the message…

Wait. You think wanting the government to change (democracy) is a legitimate demand, but wanting them to stop calling protests riots is unreasonable?

Not the person you're replying to, but in some ways it is.

Part of Hong Kong Basic Law (their Constitution, which was adopted during the handover process) stipulates that "the ultimate aim" is elections by universal suffrage for both the Chief Executive as well as the Legislative Council. So the demand for universal suffrage is simply asking the government to make good on their promises from 1990/1997.

One of the reasons that the extradition bill caused such an uproar in the city is that Hong Kong citizens are protected by rule of law in a way that doesn't exist in China. The law has clear definitions and punishment for rioting, and the actions of some protesters could very well fall into that category. So to ask for all rioting charges to be dropped is asking for the government to give in to mob rule. (Caveat—I don't think the rioting charge would be as big of a deal as it is if it didn't carry a 10 year prison sentence. But it's hard for the protesters to ask for anything less than blanket amnesty... Without looking at a specific case, where do you draw the line? What sort of punishment is reasonable?)