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China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

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Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#161

Post by bewo001 »

anthonyleecook wrote: post #71
ejlangev wrote: post #57

It's a shame we moved a lot of the US industrial base to an authoritarian and potentially hostile country like China. A bit scary to think of the generation or two of people who won't have the knowledge to manufacture things should they ever need to because of conflict in some form. Seems like it reduces any leverage the US has for holding China accountable for much that it does.

We need some investors to band up and recreate the hardware environment in Shenzhen. There would be a lot of money made that way too so not sure why there wouldn’t be one in Nevada or Arizona or something.

This would not work and it isn't even necessary. Looking at how other low-wage fast-growing countries in the past developed, China's wages and costs will soon get close to Western ones and there will be a more fair competition. Eg. if the 1980's hobby economists had been right, all our cars, electronics and computers would be Japanese by now.

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#162

Post by ghostcluster »

smogcutter wrote: post #116
polskibus wrote: post #11

As described by Martin Kleppmann at the end of his great book, big data analytics, when used without proper regulation, creates a downward spiral. Western world enforced rules against discrimination based on sex, race, etc., yet everyone seems fine when it's the algorithm spotting and executing on the biases, which statistically are fine, but nevertheless, may be wrong in many individual cases.

Maciej Ceglowski on this: "machine learning is like money laundering for bias." http://idlewords.com/talks/sase_panel.htm

the problem is 'bias' is often based on a model that is statistically and operationally accurate, but unfair from a higher order social moral framework.

a sufficiently layered net will pick up second and third order consequential effects that are not formally protected by anti-bias laws, but end up effectively mapping onto the sorts of people in categories the laws were intended to protect.

that's the fundamental problem as I see it, and it's necessarily complicated and nuanced.

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#164

Post by telmnstr »

korethr wrote: post #120
anthonyleecook wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need some investors to band up and recreate the hardware environment in Shenzhen. There would be a lot of money made that way too so not sure why there wouldn’t be one in Nevada or Arizona or something.

While I like the idea, I think there are presently cultural barriers in the way of that succeeding, mainly the Western view of IP vs the Eastern view of IP. Bunnie talks about it on his blog here: https://www.bunniestudios.com/blog/?p=4297

Let's be fair, they steal a ton of IP from the USA.

Isn't there large issues in USA colleges with students from China cheating left and right?

It's much easier to copy.

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#165

Post by Regardsyjc »

forapurpose wrote: post #99
ardit33 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree.... the US was shit at producing weapons before WW2 (apart from Carriers), yet within two years was to able to be the number one mass producer in quantity, and eventually on quality. When there is both political and economical will, the country will be able to mass-produce again. Right now there is no economic incentive to do so.

That raises a few questions: I wonder if that's still possible. The US was an industrial country at the time; they had to convert existing factories to other forms of production (e.g., from cars to bombers). Now, manufacturing is much less prevalent; the US would have to create capacity from scratch. Also, manufacturing is much less productive than other economic activities - that's why it's done in poorer countries…

Not all manufacturing is less productive. It might not be productive to manufacture t-shirts in the US but it's productive to manufacture airplanes.

There's the flying geese paradigm (FGP) that theorizes the rapid industrialization of Asia. It theorizes the movement of manufacturing form country to country as well as a process of industrial upgrading.

For example, manufacturing began in London, moved to the US, and eventually someone built a factory in Japan. In all these circumstances in order to stay competitive - they had to move to a country with cheaper labor or manufacture a more advanced product with a bigger profit margin. However their competitors catch up and they need to do the same thing again. Find a better more complex product to manufacture or find a way to manufacture it cheaper overseas.

The US started to lose its manufacturing jobs and thus its middle class starting from the 1950s. Most of these jobs were replaced by the service industry for half the pay. Today the service industry employs the most poor Americans today, your cashiers and waiters, and they are soon to be eliminated.

I've been researching manufacturing because I want to make some toothbrushes. In China, I could make them for less than 25 cents. I'm not sure how much it would cost in the USA, and a lot of my colleagues tell me that most manufacturers won't even call them back because they're so small. China on the other hand doesn't care - they're happy to sell you 1000 toothbrushes for 25 cents each.

I don't know what's better. To manufacture in the USA and not be able to compete on price - one of the biggest factors in a purchase or manufacture them in China and be competitive... Well I guess the answer is simple, if you want to make a business, you need to be profitable. If it's not profitable in the US, then China might be your only answer.

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#166

Post by JoeAltmaier »

NutriSugar wrote: post #92
Dangeranger wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are not "criminals" if they never committed a crime, they are people being detained based on probabilities.

There is also the issue that often times preparing to commit one crime involves committing other crimes. It's something of a scale. Consider the following cases: Arresting the guy who kidnapped someone. Arresting the guy in the act of trying to kidnap someone. Arresting the guy who set out to kidnap someone. Arresting the guy who is preparing his home to hold a kidnapped victim and is identifying a target. Arresting…

In US law, the treatment of each is very, very different. How about: someone planned, identified a target, went to do it and had a change of heart? Innocent in the US, because, well, no crime was committed.

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#167

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

pmontra wrote: post #121
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The exception being Tom Bombadil, but he is a strange creature.

You'll probably enjoy this essay "Oldest and Fatherless: The Terrible Secret of Tom Bombadil" https://km-515.livejournal.com/1042.html

Ok, that was awesome. I don't buy it at all (if Sauron was indeed a threat to Tom, or if Tom could be bound by the art of the Valar, I feel as though the ring would effect him as well), but it was a really fun read.

A fun thought invoked by this, and given Tolkien's intent to create a creation myth for our Earth, is somewhere out there Tom still sits in his forest, waiting, for when the might of the Valar fades. Feels almost Lovecraftian.

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#168

Post by baursak »

bb88 wrote: post #154
dlwdlw wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should look more into the history of the US as well as international opinions. The US isn't a paragon of virtue, it is only able to sell its own narrative of events because of its economic and cultural weight. Even the belief that the rich/powerful mist have some sort of virtue is only one perspective that conveniently allows the US the moral high ground. No country, no person, no thing is perfect. All evil comes…

I'm fully aware of the failures of US Foreign Policy. But when you argue about a topic that affects the security of the US, there really is no such thing as "moral high ground". Edited to add: I believe China holds that true as well when discussing the security of China, considering the number of spies that are in the US.

> But when you argue about a topic that affects the security of the US, there really is no such thing as "moral high ground".

So all your concerns boil down to us-vs-them tribalism?

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#169

Post by sitkack »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #166
NutriSugar wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is also the issue that often times preparing to commit one crime involves committing other crimes. It's something of a scale. Consider the following cases: Arresting the guy who kidnapped someone. Arresting the guy in the act of trying to kidnap someone. Arresting the guy who set out to kidnap someone. Arresting the guy who is preparing his home to hold a kidnapped victim and is identifying a target. Arresting…

In US law, the treatment of each is very, very different. How about: someone planned, identified a target, went to do it and had a change of heart? Innocent in the US, because, well, no crime was committed.

What you describe is attempted kidnapping.

Re: China using big data to detain people before crime is committed

#170

Post by JoeAltmaier »

sitkack wrote: post #169
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In US law, the treatment of each is very, very different. How about: someone planned, identified a target, went to do it and had a change of heart? Innocent in the US, because, well, no crime was committed.

What you describe is attempted kidnapping.

No, its going through some motions. If you don't make the attempt, its not an attempt. By 'change of heart' I meant they don't make contact, not that they 'let them go'.
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