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The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

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Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#161

Post by phil21 »

jmspring wrote: post #94
ori_b wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But we've already got automated warehousing systems that work pretty well -- I'd imagine these wouldn't be too hard to extend to load and unload trucks. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that they already can.

Specifically, the automation of long haul trucking, comparable to what large tanker ships do, may be more feasible. The last mile, scheduling, and the rest, is a horrid mess. A family member is in the business and I live in an area where ag work is prevalent and know people who have worked in such.

Agreed here. I don't think anyone reasonable is suggesting the local delivery trucks are going to get automated any time soon.

But the long-haul interstate runs? I see this happening faster than any automated passenger cars, and once it starts it's going to rapidly take over that industry. Probably starts with convoys with a couple human tenders until the tech is proven.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#163

Post by schiffern »

peterwwillis wrote: post #104
ctvo wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Trucks are way more complicated to drive. Once they're up to cruising speed, they're easy. But it's everything leading up to that point which is hard. Dealing with gear changes, airbrakes, load shifting, other vehicles that will inevitably cut you off, and much more. The mechanical aspects of controlling a large truck and accounting for the variables is probably the easiest part of the problem. Things involving hum…

Yes. Truckers have to deal with a sort of standard "road safety dilemma" all the time, which can be boiled down to this: A trucker is driving a 40 ton truck at 65mph. A passenger car with a family of four cuts in front of it, and the distance is closing fast. A passenger car takes roughly 315 feet to come to a complete stop. A fully loaded truck takes 525 feet. The trucker now has to make a decision. A) Do I slam on…

>A passenger car takes roughly 315 feet to come to a complete stop. A fully loaded truck takes 525 feet.

How does this change if truck design and "per-axel" fee incentives were rationalized[1][2] to instead maximize the number of axles? Doubling the number of axles reduces road damage by 94%. Currently semi trucks account for 6% of vehicle miles driven[3] and 99% of all traffic damage to roads.

But would this measure also improve braking distance and safety?

[1] http://www.nytimes.com/1989/07/26/business/economic-scene-be... (erroneously states that damage scales as the cube of axle weight; it scales as the fourth power or even the sixth(!) power on weak roads)

[2] https://truecostblog.com/2009/06/02/the-hidden-trucking-indu...

[3] http://www.princeton.edu/~alaink/Orf467F13/FreightFacts&Figu...

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#164

Post by UVB-76 »

MertsA wrote: post #131
quanticle wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or, alternatively, do they wait at truck stops on the edge of town and meet the trucks as they come in (much like harbor pilots meet container ships at port entrances)?

If you were able to dispense with the cab and any human interfaces/amenities, that would cut out a big chunk of weight and drag. It would look radically different but just think of all of the components on a truck that are only there for the driver. No need for a cab, AC system, heater, pedals, steering wheel and linkages, airbags, seats, pretty much all of the glass and windows, doors, etc. The added sensors, teleme…

Even if we remove all the facilities for a driver, i likely you would still need a human guard.

Although thinking about it, the guard could travel in a separate vehicle, and could be responsible for overseeing an entire convoy of trucks at one time.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#165

Post by marchenko »

jessriedel wrote: post #88
WalterBright wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't have one. I just recall reading years ago that the fatigue damage cause by trucks loaded to the legal weight limit was 9,000 times that of a passenger car (and trucks are often overloaded). The flexing of the roadbed causes it to crumble away after a while. You can feel the roadbed go down when a truck passes. The main damage passenger cars do is erosion from snow tires.

I was able to find this from the Congressional Budget Office > Estimates of pavement damage by trucks, the largest per-mile external cost of truck use, range from about 5 to 55 cents per mile depending on the weight of the truck, the number of axles over which its weight is distributed, and where it operates.... https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/112th-congress-2011-... The fuel tax is 30 cents/gallon of diesel,…

20-30% is huge. And when trucking is no longer a huge source of employment, the political will to assess realistic taxes on the environmental/ infrastructural costs of trucking might increase. No worries of truckers staging protests that tax increases will come out of their paychecks.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#166

Post by soupbowl »

a3n wrote: post #32

> Dealing with gear changes, airbrakes, load shifting, other vehicles that will inevitably cut you off, and much more. Awhile back there was a post about the early experience of a young and enthusiastic programmer. The take away phrase, in response to someone sending nonsense input, was "Some people just want to watch the world burn." I can see assholes trying to make sure that an automated truck can't change lanes,…

Future teenagers version of cow tipping.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#167

Post by jzwinck »

UVB-76 wrote: post #159
dv_dt wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given that an automated truck will follow a certain safety framework, it's interesting to contemplate if there might be automated truck pirates. Jam mobile connectivity, run the truck off the road by herding it with other vehicles, then break in and run-away with the goods or the entire trailer for that matter.

This is one of many reasons we will still need humans present, if only in a guard capacity.

Meanwhile, cargo ship companies are looking toward automation and remote control to get humans off the water. Pirates aren't scared of humans being on board, and in some cases they prefer it, because a human crew is worth more ransom.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#168

Post by peterwwillis »

schiffern wrote: post #163
peterwwillis wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Truckers have to deal with a sort of standard "road safety dilemma" all the time, which can be boiled down to this: A trucker is driving a 40 ton truck at 65mph. A passenger car with a family of four cuts in front of it, and the distance is closing fast. A passenger car takes roughly 315 feet to come to a complete stop. A fully loaded truck takes 525 feet. The trucker now has to make a decision. A) Do I slam on…

> A passenger car takes roughly 315 feet to come to a complete stop. A fully loaded truck takes 525 feet. How does this change if truck design and "per-axel" fee incentives were rationalized[1][2] to instead maximize the number of axles? Doubling the number of axles reduces road damage by 94%. Currently semi trucks account for 6% of vehicle miles driven[3] and 99% of all traffic damage to roads. But would this measur…

Braking distance is a factor of speed, weight, brakes, tires and road surface. A 40 ton truck can only stop so fast with rubber tires on typical brakes on a typical highway road surface.

Race cars are designed to stop faster than passenger cars. Their brakes are huge, they're designed with exotic components to transfer heat to air faster, designed to take higher heat for longer, the cars are designed to flow air over the brakes, and they cost much more and don't last as long, and have advanced computerized systems to optimize brake utilization. They also have pretty big tires (usually for power transfer, not braking). Their tires are also grippier on a given surface at a higher tire temperature, so they cost more and don't last as long, and work best on dry flat surfaces. They strip all the weight out of the car to decrease the amount of force working against the tires and brakes. Even the suspension and shell is designed to increase tire, and thus brake, traction. They stop really goddamn fast - 93 feet for a Ferrari F430 Scuderia, from 60mph.

Trucks are designed to carry 40 tons up and down hills, survive tire blow-outs, brake system failures, and more miles than 1000 F430s will ever see, on all kinds of road surfaces and temperatures. It is possible to improve the brake time, but it would probably cost so much you might as well ship your produce in a Ferrari. Halve the weight they carry to reduce braking distance and now we have to have twice the trucks to carry the same loads, but you still have a vehicle 10x heavier than other vehicles with dynamics that simply can't move around like the lighter ones. More accidents would be guaranteed.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#169

Post by diamondlovesyou »

DougWebb wrote: post #6
ghaff wrote: post #3

>The demonstration in Europe shows that driverless trucking is right around the corner. The primary remaining barriers are regulatory. We still need to create on- and off-ramps so human drivers can bring trucks to the freeways where highway autopilot can take over. We may also need dedicated lanes as slow-moving driverless trucks could be a hazard for drivers. So, right around the corner except for billions in infras…

Depots on the highway where loads are transferred to human-driven trucks, and dedicated lanes for slow-moving driverless trucks? Might as well put the trailers onto a train, and build out the rail network (where needed) to be as extensive as the highway network. We've already got plenty of driverless trains around.

I wish. Unfortunately, even though that is the better option, it is more risky: everyone (meaning businesses in this case) already pay taxes to support roads, thus using them, even if it's less efficient, is "free". Plus, all businesses are connected to a road. Compared to building and maintaining infrastructure for a rail network, where you're limited to customers you've built rail to. So I'd wager the "last mile" would likely continue to be truck based, even if rail use exploded.

To be fair though, the rail networks here in North America are seen as the most developed freight networks in the world (I wish we had more passenger service though; my daily commute to KU and back is a pain): 2863 Gt-km (NA), 2451 (China), 2351 (Russia), vs 391 (EU).

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#170

Post by SixSigma »

peterwwillis wrote: post #150
SixSigma wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

or, apply full brakes, apply full audible warning and swerve at the last possible moment, while calling the emergency services to put them on alert. But how common is your scenario ? I consider this a more critical failure : The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration suspects that as many as 28% of commercial truck drivers have sleep apnea. The Sleep Medicine Division surmised that nearly a 250,000, persons fall…

> But how common is your scenario ? Anecdotally, the 3 truckers i've known have complained about it. I now drive very carefully around trucks. Swerving at the last minute is a non-option because it means turning sharply, which jackknifes the truck. Turning while braking is worse because turning while either braking or accelerating compromises steering. You can try to brake until the last moment and then take off the…

I don't doubt the cut-ins but I mean, how common is the disaster part?

Not as often as truckers having incidents through tiredness etc. I'd warrant.

> You can try to brake ....

We're talking about "The computer ...."

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