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Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout

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Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout

#151

Post by windexh8er »

alyeska2 wrote: post #150
windexh8er wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that's not what they want to see. They want to see that AI is a savior for all. The psychosis of what AI is, especially in these comment walls, is unfortunately and spectacularly real. Anyone who's done any amount of investment can see this through the lens of history and I'm right there with you. This is the Lehman Brothers stage of the game and SA could be that "one". But Bro, we're still up 80%! - even WSB isn…

I don't understand what you're arguing here. A fund went up 400% by making a few highly leveraged, concentrated bets. The market moved against its leveraged positions and it was forced to quickly sell to a rival fund, at only an 80% profit. Nothing about that is meaningfully the same as Lehman Brothers other than the most superficial aspect of "A financial thing went down fast"

You made an account and this is your first comment? C'mon.

Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout

#152

Post by bormaj »

sakopov wrote: post #109

Equally interesting to me is how Citadel made up a rumor about the FED raising rates at this weeks FOMC meeting causing a historic selloff in AI stocks which then allowed them to pick up Situational Awareness on the cheap.

Any source on this? Market data was already implying a hike by year end and the Fed held steady so not sure what the takeaway is here

Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout

#153

Post by forgetfreeman »

mikestew wrote: post #128
forgetfreeman wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be excited for the show myself if I had any idea how to prevent my portfolio from tanking when this clusterfuck finally unravels.

Sibling comment says "diversify", and I tend to agree. I've seen some shit, man. 2000 dot bomb, 2008, bumps along the way. 2000, I was in tech stocks like everyone else, lost a bunch. 2008, learned my lesson and was much more diversified. Lost some money, but not nearly as much as others. It was amazing watching, say, the S&P crater while our portfolio..just didn't. It just went down a fair chunk, and came back later…

I mean yeah, diversify we must but idk anyone who had a retail portfolio that didn't eat shit in 2008 so it isn't real obvious where the bomb shelter is.

Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout

#154

Post by timmytokyo »

blitzar wrote: post #144
cmiles8 wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wall Street eats these types for breakfast and then moves onto another meal for lunch. Once more sophisticated players smelled blood in the water they just had a field day here. There are many more setups out there like this and there’s a whole army of folks just salivating for when they can blow up more AI over-leveraged financial nukes inexperienced and FOMOed investors have assembled.

If you are going to send fools, they will be parted with their money. What worries me most, is that people think this guy is some kind of genius.

His good friend Dwarkesh should have him back on the podcast.

Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout

#155

Post by BoorishBears »

quickthrowman wrote: post #136
Ekaros wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really sounds like market manipulation... But oh well it is the biggest boys doing it so it can't be that illegal... Free markets and everything for them right?

Situational Awareness filed a 13F that lists a hedge fund’s long and short positions with the SEC. It’s public information, forcing an overleveraged fund to liquidate by pressuring the instruments they’re exposed to is not market manipulation, leverage cuts both ways and all of the people/institutions involved are professional/sophisticated investors Here are all the SEC filings from Situational Awareness courtesy of…

There's something amusingly circular about these conversations, because clearly laypeople like me and the person you responding to are saying "that sounds like it shouldn't be allowed" and the invariable responses are always "it is allowed!"

The comment literally says it: "it can't be that illegal"

Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout

#156

Post by [deleted] »

bigstrat2003 wrote: post #131
uncivilized wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes he lost a ton of money. He went from being up as much as you said to up only 80% and getting liquidated at that point. If it weren’t for Citadel stepping in to buy his investments who knows how much worse it could have gotten. The only thing you can argue is realized vs unrealized.

Unrealized losses do not count as losing money (and similar for gains, of course).

[deleted]

Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout

#157

Post by BoorishBears »

bigstrat2003 wrote: post #131
uncivilized wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes he lost a ton of money. He went from being up as much as you said to up only 80% and getting liquidated at that point. If it weren’t for Citadel stepping in to buy his investments who knows how much worse it could have gotten. The only thing you can argue is realized vs unrealized.

Unrealized losses do not count as losing money (and similar for gains, of course).

They do once you're getting margin called.

Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout

#158

Post by sudb »

bagacrap wrote: post #142
sudb wrote: post #123

I found a tweet purporting to show the letter that Leopold sent to his LPs - it looks pretty thoughtful and doesn't sound as bad as some news sources seem to be portraying. https://x.com/tbpn/status/2083226453509030285

What exactly do you think he's gonna tell his clients? "Oops haha I'm a fraud"

Obviously not, no need to patronize. Did you read it? It seems to be honest about the numbers but it's pretty skillfully written to reassure.
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