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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#151

Post by JumpCrisscross »

2ff wrote: post #137
aurareturn wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think OpenAI or Anthropic are predicting that the AI market is going to collapse. In fact, I think both are bullish that the public still isn't pricing in exponential growth. I think what is happening is that OpenAI is racing to IPO before Anthropic because their growth isn't as impressive. If you are the weaker company, you should IPO first to lock up the cash.

[flagged]

> youre saying they will both become the economy

They said exponential and you read unlimited.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#152

Post by ipaddr »

fakeBeerDrinker wrote: post #116
treyd wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Meanwhile the federal minimum wage is still $7.25/hr.

And how many earn this? Around 1% of hourly employees…if that. Not what I’d be concerned with right now.

Why not raise it then?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#153

Post by Spooky23 »

SilverElfin wrote: post #118
joegibbs wrote: post #75

Anthropic at $1t for an IPO vs Google at $23b in 2004 sounds insane but Google's revenue at the time was $2.7b while Anthropic's already at $47b, so a valuation at about 20x vs 10x revenue. Anthropic also has very high revenue growth (50x since 2024), it doesn't seems quite as insane as it could be.

What’s defensible about Anthropic’s revenue? It seems like OpenAI and others are equivalent. Open weight models are catching up. Google has ads networks, video platforms, and so much more. I am skeptical that Anthropic and OpenAI can defend their dominance for long enough to make meaningful gaap accounted profits

Anthropic seems to have clawed its way to being the best AI and charging for itself. Microsoft had to slash the Anthropic budget… which it exceeded while being the exclusive host of OpenAI.

Google seems to have a good B2B and internal leveraging AI to make $. OpenAI/Microsoft seems to have squandered an early product lead.

And then you have the Muskiverse, where we have an rocket ship company that buys surplus cyber trucks, operates a space ISP, an AI company that produces virtual fetish porn and makes money renting GPUs to Anthropic, a rando dying social network and a tunnel company to cock-block public transit.

I may be underestimating the market for AI anime porn, but I think Anthropic is probably the best in class product right now. Google and AWS are probably the best positioned sellers of AI. SpaceXAI is the dark horse because they are likely enriching the dear leader more. OpenAI is fucked.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#154

Post by paulbgd »

jmyeet wrote: post #17

So what people seem to be unaware of or are purposely ignoring is that OpenAI and Anthropic have invested trillions in a rapdily depreciating asset. There was a HN post from a day or two ago where someone bought a V100 for 150 pounds and connected it to their computer. Well that was a $10k GPU in 2017. That's the fate of H100/B100 GPUs in 5-10 years (and I suspect closer to 5). What do you do if you've invested $1 tr…

As I was reading the start of your argument, I thought you were gonna call the models a depreciating asset! Totally agree about GPUs too, but literally everything they’re spending money on has to be rebuilt to stay competitive. They have to go for the moonshot of training a full new model when better tech comes, they have to upgrade GPUs to keep their data centers efficient.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#155

Post by avmich »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #93
ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

> Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? I think these IPOs are going to mint tens of thousands of new millionaires or something. That, in turn, will generate massive tax windfalls for all levels of government. > other than the ability to produce more crap? This is a big "other than." (And to be clear, the jury is still out on whether AI will let us produce more in the long…

If jury is still out on positivity, long term, of AI, I'd really like to see arguments for that. Historically all - almost? - technical improvements were net positive; even some blunders had upside. AI is dangerous, yes, but e.g. fission was developed for the bomb, and now powers significant numbers of households worldwide - the tech less than 90 years old.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#156

Post by JumpCrisscross »

grassfedgeek wrote: post #130
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

This is such a scam. SpaceX used its massive IPO and listing fees (and the prestige of being the largest IPO ever) as leverage. Index providers and exchanges saw financial incentives: listing fees, trading volume, data sales, and long-term revenue from asset managers. Reuters reported that SpaceX advisers contacted major index providers (including Nasdaq) to discuss early index entry, and that SpaceX was leaning towa…

> S&P 500’s 12-month seasoning and 4-quarter GAAP profitability requirement → waived

S&P hasn’t announced a final rule change yet.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#157

Post by wahern »

ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

Nominal global financial wealth is about $350 trillion. If you include real estate global nominal wealth is about $600 trillion.

A good portion of that[1] is what alot of people might call fake money--valuation inflation, etc. And global wealth, even just financial wealth, isn't quite as mobile across borders as one might assume. So marshalling a trillion dollars stateside is gonna make at least some moderate waves. Still, in the grand, global scheme of things a trillion dollars is a rounding error. A trillion isn't what it used to be, and there's trillions to be had even without any realized productivity gains from AI.

[1] I'm no financial analyst, but judging by the last few recessions and the overall trajectory over the past 30 years, I'd ballpark at most about 1/3 of that to go up in smoke if we had a severe downturn tomorrow. It's not all fake money. The whole world has industrialized over the past 30 years on a scale that is still unfathomable for most people today.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#158

Post by JumpCrisscross »

sailfast wrote: post #136
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Basic necessities are expensive There is going to be a well-deserved shitshow when these IPO proceeds start hitting real estate markets.

A shitshow for whom? I see it as extremely unlikely for the United States of America to not allow individuals to purchase things for whatever money they can pull together. The only answer is to make it unacceptable socially, more costly economically (taxes, etc), or the third option which involves pitchforks (perhaps that also falls under "unacceptable socially") that I hope we can avoid at all costs. (is this the sh…

> shitshow for whom?

I think there will be a tremendous political opportunity in the next 6 months to capitalize on rage in cities against new tech wealth driving up housing costs.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#159

Post by burnte »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #117
Xunjin wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this is a bubble... The pop stage will be devastating...

> If this is a bubble... The pop stage will be devastating... Why? It could be sudden. It could be slow and gradual. I've seen no reason it needs to be one versus the other.

Irrational exuberance rarely transitions to a rational drawn down. The minute the first selfish-actor flood-liquidates, everyone else will too. That's now runs work.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#160

Post by JumpCrisscross »

avmich wrote: post #155
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? I think these IPOs are going to mint tens of thousands of new millionaires or something. That, in turn, will generate massive tax windfalls for all levels of government. > other than the ability to produce more crap? This is a big "other than." (And to be clear, the jury is still out on whether AI will let us produce more in the long…

If jury is still out on positivity, long term, of AI, I'd really like to see arguments for that. Historically all - almost? - technical improvements were net positive; even some blunders had upside. AI is dangerous, yes, but e.g. fission was developed for the bomb, and now powers significant numbers of households worldwide - the tech less than 90 years old.

> all - almost? - technical improvements were net positive

I think it’s very likely AI is a technical improvement. But there is still a chance it’s a small improvement being massively overbuilt.

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