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US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

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Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#151

Post by surgical_fire »

Bubble1296 wrote: post #35
megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

What about the other Middle East countries involved such as the UAE and what about Europe?

Europe, thankfully, stayed out of this mess. Some countries even rejected to even give logistical support to the US.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#152

Post by JumpCrisscross »

small_model wrote: post #19

"Iran's Supreme National Security Council announced that Iran has achieved a major victory, compelling the United States to accept its 10-point plan. Under this plan, the U.S. has committed to non-aggression, recognized Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, accepted Iran’s nuclear enrichment, lifted all primary and secondary sanctions, ended all Security Council and Board of Governors resolutions, agreed to pay…

> Can't see this holding

Me either. Now one must ask who gains most from time. Israel, America or Iran.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#153

Post by hypeatei »

Didn't the US and Israel gather intelligence during previous "talks" which ended up with senior Iranian leadership dead? It seems unlikely that this relationship would be fixed by now, and a deal would require big concessions from one side... of which one is polling real badly at home currently.

Between the threats to NATO allies, high oil prices, lifting of sanctions on Russian oil, US personnel losing their lives, military equipment losses, and broken campaign promises... I don't think this is something you just walk away from. It's still not clear why we're there in the first place; one could speculate that Trump was convinced by Israel that this operation would be like Venezuela which seems plausible because no US intelligence agencies backup the notion that Iran was developing or trying to develop nuclear weapons.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#154

Post by cjbgkagh »

ajross wrote: post #95
cjbgkagh wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this 10 point plan drops the need for US to pay reparations instead relying on transit fees which will be split with Oman. Missiles are still flying so it’s hard to say who has really agreed to what. I’ve heard rumors that Iran has agreed to dilute its highly enriched uranium so maybe the US could count that as a win. Given they’ve demonstrated sufficient conventional deterrence they may feel that they don’t…

FWIW, money is the easiest term to agree to. We have lots and lots. I agree, it will never be called "reparations", but you can trivially structure it in a zillion ways that just look like foreign aid or debt forgiveness or whatever. The WHO forgives some loans or the UN agrees to build some infrastructure, and we coincidentally make a new fund of about the same size, etc...

I think it’s less about the money and more about a formal declaration who won the conflict. The loser sues for peace / pays reparations.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#155

Post by surgical_fire »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #49
megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

[flagged]

Why would Iran agree to any of this?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#156

Post by bawolff »

3eb7988a1663 wrote: post #43

"We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated." The ten point plan which had previously been rejected outright? The 10-point plan which leaves Iran in an incredibly better finan…

Its only a 2 week ceasefire. Maybe after 2 weeks the sides stay settled down. Maybe they go back to shooting each other. I wouldn't call it over yet.

As far as the geopolitical consequences of all this, i think its still pretty unclear where the chips will fall, but whether a win or a loss for usa, i think the consequences of this war will be significant.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#157

Post by kaliqt »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #49
megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

[flagged]

So resistance against genocide is bad but the genocide is fine? There are clear good and bad guys here.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#158

Post by clbrmbr »

newAccount2025 wrote: post #77
100ms wrote: post #48

I don't understand enough about the US system of government. Are there any hopes of seeing Trump unseated before his term is up? If not for the astonishing damage he's doing to the western world, then only for the sheer fatigue from having every media outlet saturated by him on a daily basis.

No. Theoretically congress could impeach him, but his party has proven they will support him no matter what his crimes. Theoretically his cabinet could remove him with the 25th amendment but they are all complicit and will need pardons for themselves.

25A removal is temporary pending a bar in congress even higher than that for impeachment (2/3 of house and senate).

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#159

Post by avidiax »

pageandrew wrote: post #64
rasz wrote: post #45

US just agreed to: Commitment to non-aggression Continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz Acceptance of uranium enrichment Lifting of all primary sanctions Lifting of all secondary sanctions Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions Payment of compensation to Iran Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region Cessation of war on all fronts,…

Source? Do you seriously think the US just agreed to accept Iranian nuclear enrichment?

Israel, I would think, would claim that Iran getting the bomb would be existential to them, so I don't think it's reasonable to think that Israel would agree to allowing enrichment.

I'm a little surprised that recognizing Israel as a nuclear power isn't in Iran's list of demands, considering how destabilizing it would be.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#160

Post by ghywertelling »

joshgachnang wrote: post #72
loloquwowndueo wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All he does is flip flop. Was the same with tariffs against everyone last year - he kept backing off at the last moment.

Amusing that it's on a Tuesday again. TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) Tuesday.

Yes, markets weren't taking his "normal" market manipulation tweets seriously, so he had to go hyperbolic with the NUKE tweet. I am definitely sure Trump is not serious. That's why Iran said we will continue this discussion with complete distrust.
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