Ah. The old "still close enough, so we can pretend you should pour your money over us, as we haven't identified the next hype yet" razzle dazzle...
Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
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Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#152Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#153>What takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it’s a march of nines. Every single nine is a constant amount of work. Every single nine is the same amount of work. When you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine. Then you need the second nine, a third nine, a fourth nine, a fifth nine. While I was at Tesla for five years or so, we went through maybe three…
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Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#154It's funny how there's such a pervasive cynicism about AI in the developer community, yet everyone is still excited about vibe coding. Strange times...
What developer is excited about "vibe coding"? The only people excited about "vibe coding" are people who can't code.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#155I think it's a shame that a 146 minute podcast released ~55 minutes ago has so much discussion. Everybody here is clearly just reacting to the title with their own biases. I know it's against the guidelines to discuss the state of a thread, but I really wish we could have thoughtful conversations about the content of links instead of title reactions.
Who listens to podcasts at 1x speed? That's unbearably slow!
I do. I'm really not a fan of sped-up audio in general. If I'm focused on speed I'd rather read/skim a transcript.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#156>What takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it’s a march of nines. Every single nine is a constant amount of work. Every single nine is the same amount of work. When you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine. Then you need the second nine, a third nine, a fourth nine, a fifth nine. While I was at Tesla for five years or so, we went through maybe three…
I also quite like the way he puts it. However, from a certain point onward, the AI itself will contribute to the development—adding nines—and that’s the key difference between this analogy of nines in other systems (including earlier domain‑specific ML ones) and the path to AGI. That's why we can expect fast acceleration to take off within two years.
Isn't that one of the measures of when it becomes an AGI? So that doesn't help you with however many nines we are away from getting an AGI.
Even if you don't like that definition, you still have the question of how many nines we are away from having an AI that can contribute to its own development.
I don't think you know the answer to that. And therefore I think your "fast acceleration within two years" is unsupported, just wishful thinking. If you've got actual evidence, I would like to hear it.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#157Agency. If one studied the humanities they’d know how incredible a proposal “agentic” AI is. In the natural world, agency is a consequence of death: by dying, the feedback loop closes in a powerful way. The notion of casual agency (I’m thinking of Jensen Huang’s generative > agentic > robotic insistence) is bonkers. Some things are not easily speedrunned.
(I did listen to a sizable portion of this podcast while making risotto (stir stir stir), and the thought occurred to me: “am I becoming more stupid by listening to these pundits?” More generally, I feel like our internet content (and meta content (and meta meta content)) is getting absolutely too voluminous without the appropriate quality controls. Maybe we need more internet death.)
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#158And self sustained nuclear fusion is 20 years away, perpetually. On which evidence can he affirm a timeline for AGI when we can barely define intelligence?
I'd argue we've had more progress towards fusion than AGI.
> I'd argue we've had more progress towards fusion than AGI.
way more pogress toward fusion than AGI. Uncontrolled runaway fusion reactions were perfected in the 50s (iirc) with the thermonuclear bombs. Controllable fusion reactions have been common for many years. A controllable, self-sustaining, and profitable fusion reaction is all that is left. The goalposts that mark when AGI has been reached haven't even been defined yet.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#159>What takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it’s a march of nines. Every single nine is a constant amount of work. Every single nine is the same amount of work. When you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine. Then you need the second nine, a third nine, a fourth nine, a fifth nine. While I was at Tesla for five years or so, we went through maybe three…
The interview which I've watched recently with Rich Sutton left me with the impression that AGI is not just a matter of adding more 9s. The interviewer had an idea that he took for granted: that to understand language you have to have a model of the world. LLMs seem to udnerstand language therefore they've trained a model of the world. Sutton rejected the premise immediately. He might be right in being skeptical here…
yeah that "model of the world" would mean:
babies are already born with "the model of the world"
but a lot of experiments on babies/young kids tell otherwise
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#160Another AGI discussion without first defining what is AGI in their minds.