151–160 of 777 posts
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Leopards eating a lot of American faces.
But they were supposed to eat other people’s faces. You know THOSE people.
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> Hopefully for the US they won't go in a similar crisis like the UK is going through... Err.. do tell about the UK's larger crisis than US'?
Well before what's happening now the US still was doing very strong on the economy (plus their advantage to be that big, their military advantage, them owning half of their continent, etc...). But with what is unfolding now... If you want to know more about the current situation in the UK I would recommend this video [1]. His channel is amazing for geopolitical content. [1] https://youtu.be/OTWDzMjgsEY?si=hxoB8ef_y2Q…
WAI. Trump is crashing the T-note yield to refinance $9T (which is how much US debt is going to mature in 2025) at a lower rate. That, for those of us who know arithmetic, is approximately one quarter of all US debt. It seems to be working.
> Trump is crashing the T-note yield to refinance $9T (which is how much US debt is going to mature in 2025) at a lower rate Even if this were intended (unlikely), destroying $6T of notional stock market value so far to save $270b/yr of interest (if 10-year yields drop by 3%, which hasn't happened yet ) is a bad trade.
Not going to comment on the politics, but I'd point out that recession odds on Kalshi are currently 64% and 58% on Polymarket [1,2]. In other words, recession in 2025 is more likely than not -- though far from guaranteed. My thought relevant to HN is that either way this is likely to decimate venture capital and startups, at least in the short run. Venture capital funds come from limited partners like pensions and en…
Those odds must incorporate some expectations that recent actions get reversed (and quickly!). Recession is guaranteed if new rules stay in place.
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I think that those in command are also waiting for the next President to undo all that but it is going to have a tremendous effect for a decade or more. Hopefully for the US they won't go in a similar crisis like the UK is going through... Cutting off countries like Japan or Taiwan like that when we know their geopolitical situation with China and how critical their economy is to the US is quite crazy.
This. There is no reason why any country should trust us anymore if entire trade relations can be destroyed by a presidential whim. Even if Trump fell out of a window today and we got a pro-trade president tomorrow, we’re not fixing this damage for a very long time. We probably would have to amend the constitution to insulate foreign policy from the whims of a single person if we want any chance of fixing this in our…
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I think that those in command are also waiting for the next President to undo all that but it is going to have a tremendous effect for a decade or more. Hopefully for the US they won't go in a similar crisis like the UK is going through... Cutting off countries like Japan or Taiwan like that when we know their geopolitical situation with China and how critical their economy is to the US is quite crazy.
> Hopefully for the US they won't go in a similar crisis like the UK is going through... Err.. do tell about the UK's larger crisis than US'?
GDP isn't everything and from the outside the UK feel like in a very bad place, but I wonder what's the metric that really captures that status. Inequalities aren't getting that much wider as well.
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/gbr/uni...
So honest question: A bunch of people who currently own stock are deciding they'd rather have cash instead -- that much is obvious. But what exactly are they doing with the cash? Don't want to hold onto it, everyone says devaluation and inflation is coming. Bitcoin and gold are kinda flat. I expected them to shoot up as uncertainty hedges. What gives?
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I dunno, cults are surprisingly sticky, just look at how they've internally whitewashed the January 6th attack on the capitol.
I want to believe you are right, but I've been disappointed repeatedly in the last few years, so I also fear you are wrong.
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I think this might be a move to stop a world war (between Russia and NATO/Europe). If U.S. also leaves NATO any time soon - the chances for a world war would decrease greatly.
Yes, the isolationist era that followed World War One clearly calmed the rest of the world, so that the various "expansionist" regimes felt less threatened and just let their neighbors be. History rhymes with itself.