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China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

japannews.yomiuri.co.jp

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Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#151
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

From what I understand, it is an affront to their regime. It’s an island of free, prosperous and democratic Chinese people. It’s a repudiation of everything the CCP stands for. In a very real sense, Taiwan is not a separate country, but a unconquered territory from the Civil War, the last bastion of the pre-1949 Republic of China, and a symbol of what could have been for all of China. Sure there are geopolitical reas…

> It’s an island of free, prosperous and democratic Chinese people. It’s a repudiation of everything the CCP stands for.

This is really irrelevant to the conflict, which goes back long before Taiwan democratized (which was only in the late 1990s).

The conflict is relatively simple. Taiwan was a province of China, and still is a part of the Republic of China. The People's Republic of China sees itself as the successor state of the ROC, and is also seen as such by the rest of the world. That means that the PRC considers Taiwan to be part of its rightful, legal territory.

The issue of the territorial integrity of China is especially important in modern China because of the history of colonialism and invasion in the 19th and 20th Centuries. Both the Nationalists and Communists dreamed of expelling the colonial powers and warlords, reuniting China, and finally establishing a fully sovereign, independent state. The separation of Taiwan from the mainland, as a result of the Chinese civil war, is seen as the last vestige of the era in which China was weak and not unified.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#152
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Pacific, for one, meaning control of shipping lanes—and with these, economic/political leverage over Japan (which, as internal PLA documents for senior staff have already revealed, they intend to put to full use). Right now, China is boxed in from all sides by mostly U.S. allied countries, so breaking the "First Island Chain" encirclement is in reality a much bigger deal than the semiconductor industry, especiall…

Who do they plan to ship to using their newly-conquered shipping lanes, exactly? They will find that the rest of the civilized world can say "No" to China, just as it has to Russia.

Why wouldnt they, if they could, send the navy to secure Japanese islands they insist are theirs?

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#153
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

One thing I learned recently was that when the Kuomintang fled to Taiwan, they took a vast trove of priceless Chinese antiquities with them. This has long been a sore spot for China, which makes the desire to annex Taiwan not simply a dollars and cents tactical goal but also a matter of national pride. It's like if we had a right-wing revolution in the US, and the current national government fled to Nova Scotia with…

Not sure your analogy works, since it’s the right that is so insistent on preserving cultural artifacts while the left is the side with people actively destroying them. It’s also no coincidence. The CCP did the same thing.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#154
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Possible access to, and control of, most of the world's top chip manufacturing node fabs. > other than nationalistic fervor And as you said, this. Jingoism can be used to bolster those in power. I don't know that Xi could use this boost at this point in his career, but as he seems to want to be Chairman-for-life, he may need it eventually.

There is no scenario where that is a worthy trade off for the immense costs.

The cost will be born by other Chinese, not him.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#155
post #46
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war. In the short term that's terrible. In the long term, pain now will help minimize pain later when China invade Taiwan and US-China trade drops to zero overnight. It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

What does Russia stand to gain by invading Ukraine?!

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#156

"China is estimated to hold an about 84% share of the global market in neodymium magnets and an over 90% interest in samarium cobalt magnets. Japan, meanwhile, has about 15% of the neodymium magnet market and a less-than-10% share of that for samarium cobalt. If China bans the export of such technologies, it would be difficult for the United States and Europe, which do not traditionally manufacture rare earth magnets…

But this market share is because we aren't mining them in other countries

So it is a clear sign that we need to start mining them

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are we exactly? Your prediction has not been proven correct. Even as much as things are escalating, war does not appear imminent nor certain.

> Where are we exactly? Your prediction has not been proven correct. Even as much as things are escalating, war does not appear imminent nor certain. We’re much closer than we were 20 years ago. Nobody believed Russia would actually invade Ukraine; nor that Xi would be foolish enough to scare away Taiwan by muscling in on Hong Kong. Unless the CCP forces Xi out, their hardliners and the middle-kingdom mindset have al…

>Nobody believed Russia would actually invade Ukraine

Who is 'Nobody' in this context? Because most analysis on this since Russia took Crimea in 2014 have predicated that Russia would make further attempts at capturing Ukrainian territory. Even the U.S defense establishment knew this and were preparing the Ukrainians for since 2015.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the wrong question. The right question is: what does the leader of china gain by ordering an invasion of Taiwan?

If I were him, I'd prefer the status quo. Invading Taiwan is not a 100% success guarantee and surely Xi doesn't want to end up like Putin in Ukraine. Even a (military) success would threaten his rule, simply by the economical consequences. That's a lot of risks for very little rewards. But who knows ... we can just hope for the sake of all of us, that the Chinese have better intelligence and better risk assessment th…

The Chinese government does, at present, strongly favor the status quo.

However, it's becoming increasingly clear that the US is shifting away from the One China policy. That shift is deeply alarming the Chinese government. There doesn't seem to be anyone in American politics who is capable of pressing the breaks, slowing down the drive towards confrontation, and reengaging in real diplomacy with China.

In the end, the belief in the US that there will be a show-down over Taiwan is likely to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Where are we exactly? Your prediction has not been proven correct. Even as much as things are escalating, war does not appear imminent nor certain. We’re much closer than we were 20 years ago. Nobody believed Russia would actually invade Ukraine; nor that Xi would be foolish enough to scare away Taiwan by muscling in on Hong Kong. Unless the CCP forces Xi out, their hardliners and the middle-kingdom mindset have al…

>Nobody believed Russia would actually invade Ukraine Who is 'Nobody' in this context? Because most analysis on this since Russia took Crimea in 2014 have predicated that Russia would make further attempts at capturing Ukrainian territory. Even the U.S defense establishment knew this and were preparing the Ukrainians for since 2015.

Excuse my hyperbole. The better term would be “divided”.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/qa-what-is-risk-war-bet...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/3/how-real-is-the-thr...

vs.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/01/us-warns-russi...

for example.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the US, after all, is allowed to militarize the South China sea The U.S. doesn’t claim the sea as its sovereign waters. China does. (Which had the totally unpredictable effect of majorly pissing off every one of its maritime neighbours.)

All the countries in the region have overlapping claims to the waters, it's not unique to China.

Including Taiwan, which makes almost exactly the same claims as China, and which occupies the largest of the islands in the South China Sea.
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