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AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

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Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#151

Post by flangola7 »

cma wrote: post #97
skrebbel wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Didnt they change recently to a "death with dignity" AI strategy? That was an April Fools joke! Yeah I just found out today as well ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35402472 ). Worked a little too well huh

Seems they are really taking the AI threat seriously then. And it is all the same stuff he's been saying on recent podcasts so it is a year-long April Fools joke. I heard the death with dignity thing repeated in a Peter Thiel speech as a criticism of them.

Being criticized by Peter Thiel is probably just a sign you're not a psychopath.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#152

Post by allturtles »

If you really want to go there you could call AI enthusiasm a religion promising a scarcity-free heaven that AI will bring to us if we just believe in it hard enough. I don't think either line of argument is helpful for having a real discussion.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#153

Post by mimd »

blibble wrote: post #101
antonvs wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That seems like an absurd comparison given people like LeCun are actively and intentionally working towards creating this super-human entity. There's a disconnect in that statement. The imagined superintelligence that people like the LessWrong cult speculate and worry about is not the same thing as the AI that LeCun is working towards. The cultists simply speculate, against all evidence, that they somehow could end…

> The cultists simply speculate, against all evidence, that they somehow could end up being the same thing. something as stupid as bitcoin consumed a vast amount of resources while producing nothing useful to humanity, simply because of economic incentives it's not difficult to imagine something slightly smarter than bitcoin

That's uncharitable to Bitcoin. Bitcoin was offering a way to mostly anonymously send cash in a verifiable manner, independent of payment processors and govs. That's something useful. Now, it wasn't good because of its inefficiency, it's conflicts with govs, it's tilt towards early buyin, etc.

Getting angry to the point of clouding analysis and judgement is no way to rush into these things.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#154

Post by drc500free »

antonvs wrote: post #96
The_Colonel wrote: post #11

> Complete with prophecies of imminent fire and brimstone caused by an omnipotent entity that doesn't actually exist. That seems like an absurd comparison given people like LeCun are actively and intentionally working towards creating this super-human entity. (Some) scientists were rightfully worried when creating a nuclear bomb as well. The fact that we managed to survive 70 years with its existence does not automat…

> That seems like an absurd comparison given people like LeCun are actively and intentionally working towards creating this super-human entity. There's a disconnect in that statement. The imagined superintelligence that people like the LessWrong cult speculate and worry about is not the same thing as the AI that LeCun is working towards. The cultists simply speculate, against all evidence, that they somehow could end…

I found LW to be a great community for understanding rationality about anything other than AI.

The GAI that LW is concerned about is a suspiciously perfect fit for the yahweh-shaped-hole in the belief structures of someone who was raised as an observant jew before turning to atheism. The structure of how they believe humanity would engage with such an intelligence could drop in alongside any other apocalyptic prophecy in the old testament without sticking out, and the discussion format is like a yeshiva that takes place on an electronic bulletin board.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#155

Post by qwery »

(I don't know who this person is)

I assume they're talking of 'AI safety' as opposed to AI being used by the wealthy to further suppress the working class.

If it's unreasonable to take AI safety seriously because no one has built an AI system that poses a credible threat to humanity yet, it must also be (at least) unreasonable to dismiss the research(ers) based on the same.

That's before considering that people and (profit-motivated) companies are actually trying -- and claiming they will succeed -- to create and deploy unimaginably powerful AGI entities/systems.

Assuming no harm can come of this is clearly foolish. The goals of such an entity will likely not be aligned with the goals of the creator, let alone the general public. The entity will not act in your best interest, just as the those seeking to dismiss the risk are not acting in your best interest.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#156

Post by 23B1 »

moonchrome wrote: post #127
23B1 wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By that rather sloppy logic, we should be urgently working on capping the Yellowstone supervolcano and constructing impenetrable meteorite defense shields. I acknowledge that it's a possibility; that's not the argument at hand.

Except there's concrete evidence that the execution of safety is subpar due to market pressures to release and monetize (Google panic release). There's also evidence that progress is exceeding people's expectations and we might not even realize what we have is dangerous untill too late. If we had a probable collision trajectory of a meteor or signs of Yellowstone activating then yeah those would be good ideas.

The chain of 'logic' that leads to the outcome you propose is bonkers, though. Here's Elizer's logic from his recent polemic in Time https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-no...

"A sufficiently intelligent AI won’t stay confined to computers for long. In today’s world you can email DNA strings to laboratories that will produce proteins on demand, allowing an AI initially confined to the internet to build artificial life forms or bootstrap straight to postbiological molecular manufacturing."

This is Ridley Scott, not Aristotle.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#157

Post by low_tech_love »

verdverm wrote: post #2

There are a lot of religious like beliefs about things as people have moved away from traditional religions. I wonder if it is in our nature to have something bigger than ourselves to believe in based on faith in the message

”Throughout human history, as our species has faced the frightening, terrorizing fact that we do not know who we are, or where we are going in this ocean of chaos, it has been the authorities — the political, the religious, the educational authorities — who attempted to comfort us by giving us order, rules, regulations, informing — forming in our minds — their view of reality.” —-T.L.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#158

Post by pornel »

qwery wrote: post #155

(I don't know who this person is) I assume they're talking of 'AI safety' as opposed to AI being used by the wealthy to further suppress the working class. If it's unreasonable to take AI safety seriously because no one has built an AI system that poses a credible threat to humanity yet, it must also be (at least) unreasonable to dismiss the research(ers) based on the same. That's before considering that people and (…

I much prefer AI safety being researched before we build a really powerful AI.

This reminds me — before GPT was even released for the first time OpenAI made noises about safety and consequences and it was shrugged off, because back then GPT looked like a toy that could only write barely coherent Amazon reviews or blogs about cryptocurrencies, and that's a too low bar to demonstrate intelligence.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#159

Post by librexpr »

drc500free wrote: post #154
antonvs wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That seems like an absurd comparison given people like LeCun are actively and intentionally working towards creating this super-human entity. There's a disconnect in that statement. The imagined superintelligence that people like the LessWrong cult speculate and worry about is not the same thing as the AI that LeCun is working towards. The cultists simply speculate, against all evidence, that they somehow could end…

I found LW to be a great community for understanding rationality about anything other than AI. The GAI that LW is concerned about is a suspiciously perfect fit for the yahweh-shaped-hole in the belief structures of someone who was raised as an observant jew before turning to atheism. The structure of how they believe humanity would engage with such an intelligence could drop in alongside any other apocalyptic prophec…

Oh my god will you people stop with the bullshit psychoanalysis. People disagree about things all the time, it's normal, you don't need to invoke this pseudo-Freudian nonsense to explain why people disagree with you about the risks of AI. You can do better than this.

Re: AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion

#160

Post by 23B1 »

flangola7 wrote: post #148
23B1 wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By that rather sloppy logic, we should be urgently working on capping the Yellowstone supervolcano and constructing impenetrable meteorite defense shields. I acknowledge that it's a possibility; that's not the argument at hand.

If we saw Yellowstone spawning a sequence of ever massively larger quakes and ground disturbance, or if we observed a massive distant asteroid continually closing in on Earth with higher and higher collision probability, then yes we should be pulling out all the stops and reconfiguring society to do whatever is necessary to save the species.

Agreed! But there is no evidence of the eventuality described by these AI doomers.

The same hyperbole was employed by Ehrlich in the late 60s when we were talking about the population bomb, or Nevil Shute in 1945 on the nuclear apocalypse - both scenarios seem to be increasingly unlikely.

I think we can both agree on the fallibility of human beings – but the leaps of logic require such a tenuous series of gymnastic leaps that the polemic is not only hard to take seriously, but indeed can cloud our ability to perceive actual threats!

From Eliezer's recent article in TIME:

"A sufficiently intelligent AI won’t stay confined to computers for long. In today’s world you can email DNA strings to laboratories that will produce proteins on demand, allowing an AI initially confined to the internet to build artificial life forms or bootstrap straight to postbiological molecular manufacturing." (https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-no...)

C'mon.

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