Live data from Hacker News

Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

asiamarkets.com

151–160 of 270 posts

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which part of the American government forced Putin to invade Ukraine? I presume you have some evidence of this because you sound so sure it was all planned?

1. NATO which is primarily funded by the US has been pushing up closer and closer against Russia’s border. 2. US helped orchestrate the 2014 coup that overthrew a democratically elected but Russian friendly government. 3. Ukraine, being a US client state, refused to uphold the Minsk peace agreements. 4. Immediately prior to the invasion the US/Ukraine side of the proxy war escalated shelling of Russian leaning parts…

[flagged]

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deng Xiaoping created the seeds of destruction for his reforms when he crushed the peaceful democracy protesters in Tiananmen. This has led to mess after mess with Jiang Zemin, leading eventually to the biggest disaster of them all: Xi In an alternate timeline, one can imagine what a democratic China would look like: - Silicon Valley would have been long overtaken by Shenzhen - Chinese media would have been a strong…

> - Taiwan would willing reunify with the mainland. There would be no looming war From what I've been told the younger Taiwanese tend to see themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese. If mainland democratization happened early enough, maybe, but I don't see what a small country in Taiwan's position has to gain by merger with a larger one. > - Silicon Valley would have been long overtaken by Shenzhen To the extent the mark…

> From what I've been told the younger Taiwanese tend to see themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese.

That was cemented once Xi started being reckless, leading to the end of the one China two systems policy. Prior to Xi, it wasn’t as black and white.

> To the extent the markets were fairly free before Xi's heavy handedness, why didn't this happen yet anyway?

You just answered your own question. Under authoritarianism, the government can abruptly shutdown the party at any moment for any arbitrary reason. There’s no rule of law that comes with a democracy. Also innovation needs freedom of speech. There is a cost to society and business when you’re constantly having to self censor yourself

> Anti-import policies are adopted by democratic countries too.

Sure, the EU has a lot of protectionist laws, but they don’t even come close to CCP’s draconian version

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which countries surrounding China are US-friendly?

Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are 3 that make up a Pacific encirclement (probably the Philippines and perhaps Australia if you want to go that far). Typically that’s what people refer to when they say “surrounded” but obviously China isn’t completely surrounded. The reason these three are used in this context is because Chinese power projection assumes an outward eastern presence in the Pacific and not westward or n…

> and pissing off the Philippines and Japan for no good reason

And Vietnam, and India, and every country that borders the South China Sea. It’s like a kid who goes school and buys everyone gifts to make friends but still treats everyone like crap.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#154
post #125
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid... The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely. While I, personally, agree that it would be stupid I can certainly see that…

> surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support As is the standard playbook of dictator/authoritarian apologism, you completely reverse causality here and deny non-authoritarian countries self-determination. The US isn't "executing a strategy" or "surrounding [Russia/China]", it's that Russia and China are engaging in terrifying behavior, attacking and undermining their surrounding countries,…

> it's that Russia and China are engaging in terrifying behavior, attacking and undermining their surrounding countries, promoting a pure might-makes-right and historical grievance narrative, making vast claims over neighboring countries sovereignty with their "spheres of influence" and China's ludicrous ocean claims, and on and on

You're giving an extremely dramatized version of what China has actually been doing.

> attacking and undermining their surrounding countries

China hasn't fought a foreign war in over 40 years. That's actually pretty incredible, when you think of the fact that most major powers have fought many wars in that same timespan.

> promoting a pure might-makes-right and historical grievance narrative

I have never seen China promote a "might-makes-right" narrative. China consistently states that the United Nations framework is the basis for international relations. That's why, for example, China has never recognized Russia's occupation of Crimea - it's contrary to the UN Charter.

> making vast claims over neighboring countries sovereignty

China's territorial claims haven't expanded in many decades - since its founding. In fact, the PRC has reduced its claims over time. It inherited a bunch of border disputes from the previous government (the ROC), some of which is has resolved through negotiation (for example, with Mongolia, Vietnam and the USSR/Russia).

If you look at the South China Sea dispute, for example, you might be surprised to learn that Taiwan (a.k.a., the ROC) has nearly identical territorial claims as the PRC. I say "nearly" identical, because the PRC has settled some aspects of the dispute with Vietnam through negotiation. Taiwan actually occupies the largest, most valuable island in the South China Sea.[0] The reason why China has been pouring cement on reefs is because it is a latecomer to the scramble for the South China Sea islands, and all the largest islands and reefs are already occupied by other countries, as you can see from this list: [1].

All of the countries bordering the South China Sea have extensive, overlapping claims. The US strategy is fairly successful because it comes in and offers to help various countries enforce their claims versus China. The downside for these countries is that they risk worsening their relationship with China, which is the most important economic partner for every country in the region, and that they might get dragged into a military conflict between the US and China. That's why countries in the region have gone back and forth between cozying up to the US and China.

0. Taiping Island: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiping_Island

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_maritime_features_in_t...

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#155
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless of whatever equivalence you’re trying to make: the US is never going to sanction itself.

I meant the EU, since we are talking in the context of Europe.

The EU also tends to look less kindly on military support for the expansion of the Russian empire than military support for European states' self defence. If you're having trouble processing why, a map of Europe may be handy...

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#156
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid... The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely. While I, personally, agree that it would be stupid I can certainly see that…

> The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely. What US-Friendly states are between Russia and the Donbass then?

Not between, but making it more difficult for Russia to safely send troops into the Donbas region.

Depending on the routes Russia takes to get materials and troops into the Donbas, and to protect other routes into the Donbas, we have:

Turkey - blocking entry of north seas warships into the Black Sea / Sea of Azov.

Ukraine itself, which can send missiles onto the Russian roads currently funneling troops into the Donbas region.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could be all of the above, but for at least a year I have been reading how the real estate bubble that's underpinning the Chinese growth economy is starting to pop with the potential to bleed into the banking system, e.g. [0] If this happens, and is at bad as some analysts say it could be, then the model propping up the CCP effectively ends [1] and they'll have bigger things to worry about than re-unification or tari…

And that in turn might cause them to start a war... Because when the regime has nothing to lose all bets are off, even though it makes no sense whatsoever. They will have to distract from their culpability somehow.

My grandfather was an old Russian whose views on dealing with USSR boiled down to détante, or in his immortal words, "once they have a pot to piss in, they won't fight..."

The flipside to that is, China does now have a pot to piss in, and is far less likely to be kettled into a war over something as stupid as an overabundance of crappy housing.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rich Chinese are getting their money out of the country, because if their money is in China, they don't really own it. The CCP could take it any day and there would be nothing they could do about it. And then there is Western capital, used to rule of law and personal property. They don't see that reality as a realistic threat. So they keep pumping money into China. It will work. Until it doesn't. And then the CCP wil…

Well those are some dumbass rich Chinese people, after 2022 they expect what happened to Russians in the west won't happen to them when a Taiwan war starts? Come on you can't really talk about Rule of law when its as fluid as the west wants it to be right? When it comes to Russia and China they can quickly find majority rule to change laws. Aah well its not my money on the line :p

Nothing happened to "Russians in the West". There are literally millions of such, some quite wealthy, untouched.

Instead "very specific Russians" who had their wealth tied to the Russian state, were targetted.

This is a very important difference, completely followed a legal and standard procedures, was not arbitrary or decided upon by a dictator, or single person.

So no, "rich Chinese people" are not "dumbasses". And most are not "rich", but what the West would describe as "moderately wealthy".

M, not B wealth.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, then it’s too bad that younger Chinese have no power at all in a dictatorship. The problem with your argument is that you’re assuming that whoever is leading China right now is rational. You would be right before Xi, but Xi is neither patient or rational. The end of the one China, two systems was totally unnecessary and reckless. I’m sure others can come up with more examples

A few months ago, there were widespread protests on the handling of covid in China. Since then, many covid restrictions have been eased and Hong Kong's mask policy was even recently lifted. So protesting works, and Chinese people (young/old) do have power. (A fair amount of covid protests were held by university students btw)

They don’t have as much power as people who can vote. Also the COVID tracking apps have been very effective at neutralizing protests like the ones over provincial bank failures.

Let’s also not forget what happened to the student protesters at Tiananmen. All they have to do is get multiple army regiments from neighboring provinces, and they’ll have no qualms with massacring civilians.

Because as we all know, people outside your own province and state aren’t real people /s

All they have to do is declare martial law

Still, I hope you’re right and that I’m very wrong

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#160

Are the increasingly tight capital controls a precursor to a war with Taiwan or because the CCP expects some other shock to occur? Is their economy expected to crash for some other reason or is this simply dictatorships love centralised control over everything especially capital?

The CCP has been concerned about capital flight, and been trying to prevent it, for a long time. It's true this has ramped up significantly under Xi, but that ramp up started at least 5 years ago as part of a general clamp down on private economic activities and personal travel. Basically Xi want more control over every aspect of Chinese domestic and international activity, on every axis.

Yes he's more assertive militarily as well, but I think that's just part of a 360 degree ramp up in assertiveness generally rather than with just one specific strategic goal in mind. In that sense even a takeover of Taiwan would be a means to an end, total party hegemony under Xi, rather than a goal in itself.

Post reply on HN