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The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

adamtooze.substack.com

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Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#151

Post by rvense »

Analemma_ wrote: post #134
kansface wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting. Do you know why mortgages in Canada are so different from the US? They seem much more risky on the buyer’s side.

Nobody but the United States has long-term fixed rate mortgages: they're horrible for lenders because the lender has to assume all interest rate risk. The reason they exist in the US is because the government acts as a backstop due to pro-homeownership politics, but it causes a bunch of market distortions that are made invisible to American borrowers.

30 year fixed-rate is very much the norm here in Denmark. There was a period of experimentation leading up to 2007, but I think fixed rate is very popular. I'm certainly happy that's what we went for when we bought our first house two years ago.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#152

Post by spaceman_2020 »

adamc wrote: post #128
buscoquadnary wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the basic premise of this talk by Petar Zeihan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wi_nFz1CJSI&t=2s

He has a book out I'm reading. Good so far: https://www.audible.com/pd/The-End-of-the-World-Is-Just-the-...

I'm a fan but he does get a little too blinded by America patriotism. His predictions about other countries start getting too comically apocalyptic to be taken seriously at times.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#153

Post by WalterBright »

PKop wrote: post #139
WalterBright wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Central economic planning still doesn't work.

Neither does no planning and complete decentralization (no national industrial policy, no trade barriers, letting important supply chains move out of your control or even into the borders of your adversaries).

Actually, the chaos of the free market works very, very well at producing the most prosperous countries ever seen.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#154

Post by 0xdde »

mistrial9 wrote: post #127
nie100sowny wrote: post #34

> A generation of young people whose education was blighted by COVID lockdowns, will face a closed labour market. But shortly after, when all inefficient companies bankrupt, they'll wake up in the booming economy, finding places in perspective businesses. Crisis is good for the economy in the long term. I only worry that governments won't allow young trees to grow after the forest's fire.

> Crisis is good for the economy in the long term. there is some name for this kind of dismissive optimism, but I do not know it.. suggestions? I hear this kind of thing from the Cato Institute Human Progress people, who have trillions in paper wealth and the Oil and Gas economy to defend. What could go wrong?

Internalized propaganda?

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#155

Post by munificent »

mistrial9 wrote: post #127
nie100sowny wrote: post #34

> A generation of young people whose education was blighted by COVID lockdowns, will face a closed labour market. But shortly after, when all inefficient companies bankrupt, they'll wake up in the booming economy, finding places in perspective businesses. Crisis is good for the economy in the long term. I only worry that governments won't allow young trees to grow after the forest's fire.

> Crisis is good for the economy in the long term. there is some name for this kind of dismissive optimism, but I do not know it.. suggestions? I hear this kind of thing from the Cato Institute Human Progress people, who have trillions in paper wealth and the Oil and Gas economy to defend. What could go wrong?

A forest fire might be good for the forest as a whole, but that's a cold consolation to any particular tree or rabbit who ends up turned to cinder.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#156

Post by vorpalhex »

thaumasiotes wrote: post #119
vorpalhex wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jobs are more often created than discovered. Tomorrow we might discover a new kind of math, requiring newly trained mathmeticians in a novel field. Those mathmeticians will need admins, business services, places to work, food, etc. Thus even the discovery of a few jobs has more jobs created than found.

The mathematicians don't need any more food than they did before the new kind of math was discovered. Why would you count that as job creation?

Having food is not the hard part, the logistics of food is the hard part.

Feeding one person is easy. Feeding 200 people with a mix of allergies is hard.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#157

Post by [deleted] »

kagakuninja wrote: post #82
Nursie wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And now Gen X are included in the anti-boomer rhetoric. Great. As a tail-end UK Gen Xer, while I have some wealth I have built from working for over 20 years, I missed out on houses costing 2-3x your income just as much as the younger generations did. I'm not sitting on a million dollar property that I paid 10c for in 1972, largely because I wasn't born then...

Welcome the the club, mate. I'm a tail-end boomer (born 1963), and missed out on most of that gravy train boomers had. Apparently we are all selfish right-wing assholes. Boomer hate is stupid. The enemy are the elites, corporations and billionaires.

[deleted]

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#158

Post by throwawaymaths »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #152
adamc wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He has a book out I'm reading. Good so far: https://www.audible.com/pd/The-End-of-the-World-Is-Just-the-...

I'm a fan but he does get a little too blinded by America patriotism. His predictions about other countries start getting too comically apocalyptic to be taken seriously at times.

Well he does get credence for predicting invasion of Ukraine (which was also thought to be comically apocalyptic). Twice. He's been remarkably consistent in calling bad times for china and it's certainly gotten worse over there in the last year.

I think there are a few other things that have lined up, like Sri Lanka collapse being a bellwether for his forecasts.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#159

Post by marcosdumay »

WalterBright wrote: post #130
spywaregorilla wrote: post #30

I think the US (and Canada) just needs to ride the tide and let all the other boats sink. Pretty much everyone else is screwed. I think people are underestimating the second order effects of the US still having stable energy and farming capabilities. We'll see more stuff get done here and less stuff done elsewhere. Unemployment will be great here no matter what we do really. It will suffer in other countries. Though…

Central economic planning still doesn't work.

Well, the part of the China's economy that works isn't centrally planned.

They do seem to have a very planned part (looks like so from the other side of the world), that isn't internationally competitive. But simply claiming that their economy is planned is clearly wrong.

Re: The anti-inflation pivot of 2022

#160

Post by suoduandao2 »

spywaregorilla wrote: post #52
ddorian43 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah. Canada real estate has to take the hit.

Sure. And that will suck. But the country will still be better positioned than anyone. Especially once they finish the pipeline to ship LNG to Asia

>Especially once they finish the pipeline to ship LNG to Asia

I have my doubts that the US will allow that to happen. The resource curse is real.

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